panzermartin
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Posts posted by panzermartin
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So Russians keep losing precious hardware like they don't care. Do they realize this is not WW2 where T 34s and Il-2 get out of the factory straight to the Frontline in a fews weeks.
Where do you think the loss of the A50 will hurt the most operationally the RU? Coordinance of gliding bombings, missile /drone warfare , situational awareness in ground? Time for unmanned air balloon radars.
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Yeah, that was Zelensky's and the West's mistake in the first place. To promote the counteroffensive with directors cut videos, to brag about the wunderwaffen Leopards, Bradleys, Himars etc and publicly promote the idea that the goal was to reach Azov and kick the Russians out of Crimea.
Even Russians believed that and created multiple zones of defense on Crimeas bottleneck.
The results (while not so disastrous) really discouraged the public in the West
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8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Well, at least the Byzantians had peace.
Ehehe. It has always been Pax Romana, Pax ottomana, Pax Europeana, Pax Americana for us small countries. Some peaces are better than others though I admit
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20 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
You spelt Constantinople wrong:) I do not think that there has yet been the opportunity for Istanbul to fall, the name is in official use for less than 100 yrs.
Yes of course is Constantinople. Been in Istanbul the last week and got carried away. Thanks.
Or maybe it is because I visited Hagia Sophia and there's almost nothing left of the greek /byzantine past inside
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16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
But we'll get there if enough people keep thinking like you do.
You think so? History has taught us that the fall first comes from moral/economic /social decline and bad strategies of decades not because of an individual's thoughts.
No, Russia alone can't do that much damage to us, just like the Huns didn't bring Rome down all on their own.
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Hey, we "peacefully" existed 400 years under the ottoman rule after the fall of Istanbul. Not the greatest of time but we are still here
Yeah, there are choices, maybe less honorable. But probably most will not trade their lives for the hardest option.
Anyway, no need to be so dramatic, we are not there yet...
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2 hours ago, Grigb said:
Agent Murz published a new post. The most interesting is the number of losses that is being discussed in RU Nats TG channels.
Unreturnable 16 000 are KIA, MIA (mostly dead as well), and gravely wounded (had to be medically discharged). That gives as plus around 32,000 wounded and total losses around 48,000.
OK just saw these numbers. Yes RU are losing a lot but still seems within the 1:3 defender /attacker ratio, is this correct?
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
UKR are losing a lot less.
Can we find accurate reliable numbers anymore? I doubt. This could be true in earlier stages but since the summer offensive Ukrainians are losing a lot too.
Gliding bombs, drones etc have inflicted big damage to their forces, which repeatedly are being cut off in big cauldrons and get hammered until very last minute withdrawal.
Another hint is that we don't see any mass mobilization from Russia this time yet Ukraine seems rather eager to gather personnel even asking/forcing people to return from abroad.
Lastly, they keep losing ground every day. Even the little gains of summer offensive in Zaporizhia front. There are also no signs of any new Ukrainian offensive plan, unless it's being prepared in complete darkness for maximum surprise. But it's very unlikely.
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22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
The only realistic way for Ukraine to get back the pre-2022 stolen territories is if Russia collapses into civil war. And even then, I'm not so sure Ukraine will either want to or be able to take all of it back.
And yet how realistic that civil war scenario still is? I can see Russians in social media reacting but (obviously) in an indirect way (metaphors, black profile pictures) since the war started and now with Navalnys death but we can't see a concrete opposition forming.
Navalny, who was the big hope when alive, didn't have much impact on Russian public, we are taking about less than 10%.
The last big crack with Wagners mutiny ended within 24h and I still can't understand what happened.
So looks like Russia is past its big crises, the big defeats in the start etc , and looks like forming a homogeny politically/militarily entirely focused to win the war no matter the cost.
This can go on until the last memories of glorious Soviet union and the great patriotic war fade away, along with Putin and Co.
I rather expect a slow transition of Russia to younger generations of less autocratic leaders, within the same system, that will one day bring the first signs of peace and interaction between West and East. That the system will die slowly and not in a sudden way.
But until then I think we will see more (slow) advances of the russian army and more integration of ukrainian land.
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Just now, dan/california said:
That the Russians can't lose a couple of thousand people a day for forever.
But the Ukrainians can?
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7 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Here we go again.
What do you propose?
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I get a feeling that whatever territory is being taken by Russia at this stage of the war, will remain to russia for a long time. Kinda like northern Cyprus. I think Ukraine's military peak was at the summer offensive. Can't get better anymore imo. I think now the problem lies not in equipment but in manpower and collective will to continue the fight.
It will be impossible for Ukraine to gather the mass needed to take back strongholds the way Russia does. Drone harrasment can of course continue infinitely. I see no end to the attacks on the Black Sea fleet from Ukraine as well. Naval drones will probably continue to harass the russian ships. Unless they think of protective nettings and other measures, that would be a major headache.
I think we might reach a point the best both sides could achieve would be a cease fire with probably Donbas and Crimea going to Russia.
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First Leo1 loss? Is this krasnopol artillery
And why tanks in this war just wander alone until they get killed
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42 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Yes, but now not only political circles criticize each other, but also ordinary citizens. I see a clear divide in our society that is growing literally every week
How is everyday life now in your country, are public services, health systems working properly are people struggling more now for the basics after 2 years of war and has this played a significant role in the fatigue?
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So this war seems to have strengthen the economy, the nationalistic and militaristic will and the oligarchy of Moscow and they naturally don't see any desire to back down now they are mowing down more and more Ukrainians. Besides ethnic cleansing has never been more welcome internationally, as Gaza and Nagorno have showcased and governments are no longer sensitive of babies dying in incubators or Ukrainian citizens getting killed by a random bomb in their apartments. It's reaping season again after many years and everyone is rushing to take advantage while it lasts.
All the other talk we had here was pure wishful thinking. Putin isn't dying of cancer, Russians aren't running out of tech and shells, Russian lines didn't collapse, the invincible Leopards didn't reach the Azov, and let's not talk about Crimea...
I hope somehow sooner or later some half decent leadership (No, I don't mean Trump) emerges from this mess because the people we have now feel like they don't have the situation in hand.
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It will be very hard to convince the world that this was a Hamas rocket I'm afraid. River not going back. Israel's operation is already backfiring badly, the Arab world is in turmoil. And probably Europe will pay a heavy price again with the absolute vocal support to Israel while at the same time harbouring millions of Muslims (what were they thinking?)
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Seriously what's going on in Israel, this doesn't look good. Looks like a prelude that could end in wider events in the region.
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In WW2 there was anti-sub netting around important ports. I guess Russians must be thinking something similar against naval drones after this serious incident.
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8 minutes ago, billbindc said:
Burkina and Niger between them have something like 25k in their armed forces. In ECOWAS alone, Nigeria has over 230,000 and will be backed by French networks, special forces, Western ISR, etc if it chooses to intervene. That's a hybrid war Wagner might just be stupid enough to fight.
Yes I know the numbers look good on paper, but I wouldn't want to see another conflict there. Not sure how the rest of Africa will welcome a sizeable western intervention there.
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Anyone else worried about the Niger coup and the weakening of French/western influence there and the rest of African neighbors. I was never a pro colonial but I wouldn't also want to see Russian/Chinese puppets there taking power. They are going to do the same or worse than what Europeans did a century ago. Wagner is supposedly involved. Is this a world wide exporting of the ukrainian conflict, or just small imperialist moves on the checkerboard. I can see all this shaping in a big Western vs /ex colonial /Russo chinese hybrid war sooner than later.
Damn, World shifthing events ahead for all of us in this decade.
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Not sure who is winning at the moment....But for me Russia showed great tenacity and character when after the first months of shocking losses, abysmal performance, units simply abandoning shining expensive equipment and an unrealistic plan of conquering Ukraine with 200k men and bad intellgence, managed to bite back and hold the line so far against practically the support of 40 NATO countries and a total western blackout on their economy. That was a blow that would break any country to pieces.
Russia was ridiculed, for its drunk tank drivers, the washing machine looters, the Moskva fiasco, the javelin cope cages, the dodgy weapons from the 50s and so on...Yet it now casually destroys Leo2s and Bradleys in perfect killing zones, has now the edge on drone warfare and Electronic warfare and its industry is working 24h round the clock fully adapting to the urgency of the situation. Russia has not commited yet the bulk of their 140 million population, people home are not much affected by the war and a good part of its losses are tens of thousands of convicts and poor minorities in contrast with Ukraine that is offering the core of their male population. More importantly, Russia enjoys a vast superiority in air support that is still important to dominate a battlefield and make a wider offensive succesfull. Ukraine seems better in ISR, precision and small infantry unit action but these alone cant dominate the front. Ukraine lacks the critical mass to push Russia out any time soon imo. And the western support coming in small waves and pieces ends up getting destroyed in small waves and pieces instead of decisevely altering the balance at once.
The next phase could be a full NATO intervention that Russia can't cope with, but I'm not sure whether this would be a positive escalation for anyone.
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5 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Sometime I think that with help of Ukraine some countries also search a ways to get rid of own junk to burn it in flame of war and not waste money for utilization
I think, these 100 BTR-60 can be moved to rear TD brigades on Belarusian border. Or better to use them as SVBIEDs... Or remote-controlled minefield breachers %)
The video of this weird acrobatic dismounting way from this APC must be modelled in CMCW )))
I've heard, when on tour, the Bolhsoi ballet uses the BTR-60
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That concentration of force makes me wonder if russians really do feel that confident about their forces holding in the South, or the opposite, and they are trying to scream loudly in the North to distract the momentum of UKR just the right moment.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Thanks, It's going to hurt indeed, probably to the point they have to delay or redesign any offensive operations.
What I'm not sure is how good was its radar in detecting incoming missiles or even drones. I think the UKR SU 24 stayed on the edge of the detection zone/AAA before launching their storm shadows.