Jump to content

Erwin

Members
  • Posts

    17,458
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    32

Posts posted by Erwin

  1. 45 minutes ago, Thewood1 said:

    Players and designers conflate all three of these types of information gathering exercises regularly.

    Not really players' fault - more due to the limitations of map sizes and scenario designs.  Nonetheless, there are dedicated scout, sniper and engineer units in the game so they should be better at doing that function.  However, in the CM2 game, it is hard/impossible to detect any difference from reg inf units.  The easiest solution is for designers to give specialized units a higher experience level than the average inf unit.

  2. 1 hour ago, Simcoe said:

    They may have the will but they are running out of people and equipment to man it.

    Good point.  But since we don't know what Ukraine's manpower reserves are, it's hard to judge if they can survive a year or three+ years.  Look at how Germany survived the last year or two of WW2 with boys and old men.  All rational thought was that Germany would sue for peace.  

    Of course there is no equivalent cult of personality around Zelensky.  But, my prediction is that the West will put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate due to the West's own domestic problems.  The only question is how the West will be able to spin the result to its own population (us) as a "victory".  

  3. My question is whether it was standard for the Soviets to have the commander unbuttoned as it was for the Germans?  If the Soviet SOP was to be buttoned then are we unbalancing the game by having them act like Germans?  Or, does the game give the Soviets a poorer spotting capability regardless of being unbuttoned or not?

  4. 2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

    My guess is that the Soviets probably concentrated their artillery more in major offensives, while the Allies probably made greater use of artillery in smaller actions.

    The Soviet arty performance is even more impressive when one considers how much larger their theater of operations was compared to Europe.

  5. 9 minutes ago, Brille said:

    First time I´ve heard that fatigue stands in correlation to the spotting mechanic. As far as my experience goes fatigue has no or at least no meaningful impact on spotting and accuracy.

    This is my understanding as well.  If someone has substantive proof that these specialized troops function better at spotting than reg inf, please let us know.  My regular advice is for designers to give the specialized troops like snipers, scouts and engineers a level higher experience than the inf.  As mentioned earlier, it was a lot of fun using the crack scouts, snipers and engineers in Paper Tiger's "Gung Ho!" campaign.  That high experience made a noticeable difference.  It was a real pleasure to use these crack units as one normally notices no difference from reg inf in most scenarios/campaigns.

  6. 9 hours ago, Simcoe said:

    How do you see Ukraine surviving past 2024?

    In the same way that the Russians were expected by most on these forums to collapse last year, and instead the Russians summoned up their historic defensive stubbornness and willingness to endure massive casualties/pain last seen in WW2 (a personality attribute that we in the west historically do not understand) and survived and according to many journalists now seem to be doing ok (with support from around the world from those who are either hostile towards the US/West or at least neutral).  My sense is that Ukraine also has massive reserves of stubbornness and if they are not forced by the west to negotiate, they will stick their heels in and fight - possibly to the detriment of their own future. 

    2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

    Maybe they don't want to replace the dollar with the renmimbi, but instead to make for example the Euro the new reserve currency?

    Maneuvering the yuan as an alternative or replacement reserve currency has been a significant effort by the People's Republic of China. The PRC has pursued this goal by conducting more international trade using the Chinese yuan, and negotiating deals to allow the purchase of Saudi Arabian oil in yuan.Jul 4, 2023

     

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/16/china-yuan-renminbi-us-dollar-currency-trade/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/21/china-yuan-us-dollar-sco-currency/

    https://www.noemamag.com/china-wants-to-ditch-the-dollar/

    However, no need to panic yet:

    It's unlikely that the world will wake up one day with dollars no longer holding international appeal. Rather, in examples such as the British pound, there was a multi-decade process by which it went from the center of world economics to a second-tier currency.Sep 20, 2023

  7. 47 minutes ago, Anthony P. said:

    Dedicated scout units spot and hide better than normal troops (supposing that their skill levels are identical), yes.

    If you can substantiate that, it would be good to know.  My experience is that in the CM game, scouts, along with other specialized troops like snipers and engineers function the same as inf. At least I have found it impossible to see any discernible difference.  I always recommend that specialized troops are of higher experience level so that they are a noticeably superior in their jobs.  Crack scouts are very good at scouting.  (See them function in Paper Tiger's "Gung Ho!" campaign.)

  8. Looks like the next foot is dropping as part of China's strategy of overloading the US/West with crises to demonstrate our "fecklessness" and "impotence" to protect our allies and interests:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/kim-jong-un-drops-the-mask-north-korea-nuclear-threat-biden-administration-war-a7357bae

    "North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un last week eviscerated any remaining pretense that his regime seeks peaceful reunification with South Korea. Now that Pyongyang has nearly developed the ability to deliver a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile, Mr. Kim has decided to scrap almost 80 years of intra-Korean policy. 

    In a Castro-length speech filled with rhetoric about America’s “policy of confrontation,” Mr. Kim announced his decision to strip the North’s “constitution” of all vestiges of peaceful reunification and to eliminate the government offices handling the issue. By effectively recognizing that there are two states on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim has ensured there is no turning back. If war breaks out, he said, the North plans on “completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming” South Korea and annexing it “as a part of the territory of our Republic... Counting on weak U.S. leaders who didn’t see South Korea as a strategic asset, and whom they could subject to nuclear blackmail, the Kims followed a version of Deng Xiaoping’s “hide and bide” approach: concealing their growing nuclear and ballistic-missile programs and awaiting a docile regime in Washington. Today, the North sees its moment at hand in a weak Joe Biden...

     

  9. I think that Ukraine can survive longer than next summer.  But, one has to consider that many millions of Ukrainians have fled their country... and (according to Google) so far about 10 million have not returned and seem happy to stay abroad.  If they don't want to fight for their own country that means that those who remain will be whittled down in an attritional war with Russia that suits Russia just fine since they have a much larger population.  

    One would expect that Ukraine will have to start fielding older men and younger men.  The long term effects of a destroyed generation of men were seen in the UK (and France, Germany etc) after WW1.  

    It will be interesting to see how pressure starts to be applied on Ukraine to consider a compromised negotiated settlement that gives the West the opportunity to declare "victory" (while Russia and China will declare the same natch). 

    Seems that those who think that Ukraine will "win" are basing their hopes on Russia "falling apart".  This seems akin to Hitler hoping the Allies would fall apart after the death of Roosevelt.  From my experience and travels, Russia can endure much more pain and suffering than we in the west can imagine.  And from the WSJ articles it seems that Russia is actually doing ok with exports and relations with its many supporters in the ME, Africa, S. America and of course China.  The real threat is China's blatant attempt to overthrow the USD and replace it with the Renminbi by supporting the sort of chaos we see in Ukraine... and now other parts of the world - demonstrating the weakness of current administrations in the US and Europe.  

×
×
  • Create New...