Vanir Ausf B

More power to them if they can make it happen but I see only 8 pilots in the first F-16 cadre and wonder how many more are available.

The Czech Gripens are leased (as are the Hungarian) and the UK only has one of them, so it's probably Sweden or nothing. I suspect Haiduk is correct that this is Plan B in case Plan A (F-16s) doesn't happen. I don't think we will see both F-16s and Gripens in Ukraine.

The Drive has a nice article on why F-16s should be viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short term solution. _____ “They're young pilots that barely have any hours at all. So they're not currently fighting the war,” he said. The Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing language training in the U.K. “And then they're going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the [Dornier Alpha Jets] for a little bit, that all is going to take time,” said Hecker. “And that's probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that's why it's going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.” https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says Also, a thoughtful thread from Justin Bonk regarding western contractors.

It's going to be #2, obviously.

NATO standard

There's a lot we don't know, but satellite data suggests that the line of fortifications around Robotyne is the first of three "belts" (broadly speaking) between Ukraine's starting positions and Melitopol, and they are building more all the time. https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ

Cope cage on a Challenger? Sacrilege!

Ukraine needs more sappers. _____ In an urgent appeal to allies, Oleksii Reznikov told the Guardian his soldiers were unearthing five mines for every square metre in places, laid by Russian troops to try to thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He said the vast minefields could be traversed, but that it was critically important that allies “expand and expedite” the training already being provided by some nations, including Britain. The number of sappers in the Ukrainian armed forces was nowhere near enough to get through the complex Russian defences on the vast 600-mile (1,000km) front, with mine clearing units targeted with heavy fire. Serhiy Ryzhenko, the chief medical officer of the Mechnikov hospital in Dnipro, where many of the most seriously wounded are treated, said he was receiving between 50 and 100 soldiers a day, with mines being second to artillery as the cause of their injuries. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/13/ukraine-desperate-for-help-clearing-mines-says-defence-minister

It's not much of an exaggeration for the Republican period, at least up to about 100 BC. After the professionalization of the legions loyalties shifted significantly.

"Most of the prepared UA brigades have now been committed to the offensive according to my notes. There are reports of 46th Air Mobile Brigade and 82nd Air Assault Brigade at the frontlines." https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1690299316072587264

Maybe since June 5, but not recently.

F-16 training update: the first 6 pilots should be ready by mid-summer 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/

The way it works is abstract and not intuitive, but there are sound reasons for it to be the way it is. I think the biggest problem is the official documentation is sorely lacking on details about how the C2 system works in-game, leaving players to make assumptions that are often not correct.

Contrary to speculation in that thread that this is a bug it is in fact WAD. My source for that is BFC

I'm not sure why he thinks that. Taurus has about the same range as Storm Shadow/SCALP EG, both of which out range ATACM.

The CM spotting model has a high degree of variability. It's just the way it is, and it's definitely WAD. That's not to say that tactics don't matter. They can weigh the dice heavily one way or the other but you can do everything right and still lose on bad dice rolls. That's X-COM Combat Mission, baby. Units share spotting information with other friendly units within about 32 meters (4 action spots). This doesn't happen instantly and it doesn't guarantee the enemy will be spotted by the unit receiving spotting information. Rather, it gives a 50% bonus to future spotting checks against that enemy unit. So again, bad dice rolls can still kill you and sometimes will. Also, this info sharing only matters if the receiving unit has not previously spotted that enemy unit or had C2 information on that unit shared with it, because after one of those things happens the friendly unit will have the spotting bonus for the rest of the scenario even if the relevant enemy unit moves to a different location.

The interviewed Lt. col. mentioned this recent Russian switch of targets. The Russians have adapted their tactics to avoid Patriot batteries, he said, focusing on striking cities far from the capital, such as Odesa, which are not yet covered. They are also upgrading old missiles with advanced technology and radar-absorbent skins. In recent weeks Moscow’s focus has been trying to take out the Ukrainian airfields from where British Storm Shadow missiles are launched, hitting command and logistical centres deep inside occupied territory. “The strikes on airfields are a tribute to Storm Shadow. Thank you very much, UK, because they really proved to be very effective. With Storm Shadow, you launch a trap missile and an anti-radar missile. All at the same time in the same direction. So the Russians, if they try to intercept Storm Shadow, get an anti-radiation missile hit on their radar. Plus traps. Very, very effective stuff.”

Relevant text: He disclosed that in December Ukrainian authorities had been on the brink of ordering the complete evacuation of Kyiv due to the intensity of Russian airstrikes. “Not many people know this, but Kyiv was on the verge of evacuation,” he said. “There was one battle that, in my opinion, determined the fate of Kyiv and the Russian campaign to destroy our energy sector, when 49 cruise missiles were launched at Kyiv.” In a desperate 15 minutes on December 16, Ukraine fired dozens of missiles from its Soviet-era S-300, American Nasams and German Iris-T systems to save the city from total blackout in freezing temperatures. “If we had allowed this strike to succeed, Kyiv would have had to be evacuated. And it is very difficult to evacuate two and a half million people,” the colonel said.

Interview with an unnamed Lt Col. in Ukraine's air defense command. Some interesting bits. Last December, prior to the arrival of Patriot missile batteries, the Ukrainians were considering the evacuation of Kyiv. Recent Russian Ka-52 loses are likely from British ASRAAM fired from trucks. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-bombers-us-patriot-surface-to-air-missiles-ukraine-dh6x8vcgn

You mean this one? https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/?do=findComment&comment=2004579 Location doesn't match, and that tank was hit on the right side. I found two other videos of Lancet hits on Leo 2A6s but their locations don't match with Girkin's either. https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/comments/14601r1/leopard_2a6_abandoned_and_struck_by_lancet_drone/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15h9rt2/german_leopard_2a6_tank_taken_out_by_the_lancet/

Speaking of language barriers...

F-16 training going nowhere fast.

https://time.com/6294670/us-strategy-ukraine-prioritizing-asia/ Caption reads "A M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on the Bakhmut direction on May 18, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine."

Ukraine continues to cement their reputation as the Noah's Ark of military hardware. __________ Ruslan, a Ukrainian artillery commander, said the North Korean munitions were not favoured by his troops because of their relatively high dud rate, with many known to misfire or fail to explode. Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings. One Ukrainian Grad unit member warned the FT not to get too close to the rocket launcher when the crew fired the North Korean munitions because “they are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes”. https://www.ft.com/content/96e1f526-ae3d-4cff-bc37-8f9dd7d5975f

That dovetails with what "the academics" (well, some of them at least) have been saying: This war also reinforces the importance of experience. Ukraine’s army is now one of the most experienced in the world, but it still lacks experience co-ordinating offensive action on a large scale. What on paper is an attacking brigade of several thousand men is, in practice, a couple of reinforced companies of no more than a few hundred men each—a smaller force that struggles to establish superiority over entrenched defenders. Although Ukraine can conduct combined-arms assaults at the level of a platoon, this begins to come apart when attempting to scale up to the level of a company or battalion. Ukraine’s armed forces remain uneven because of losses and several waves of mobilisation. Experienced brigades can correct artillery fire and conduct reconnaissance and suppress enemy positions in advance of an attack. Newer units are unable to put those pieces together even when provided with the best Western equipment. https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/07/28/franz-stefan-gady-and-michael-kofman-on-what-ukraine-must-do-to-break-through-russian-defences