Vanir Ausf B
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Posts posted by Vanir Ausf B
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Western intelligence agencies guesstimate Russian KIA @ 15,000 - 25,000.
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Artillery and direct fire HE has to be 150mm or larger to affect mines. I don't know if the same is true of fortifications.
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Why? Ego. Putin wants to be spoken of in the same breath as Peter and Catherine. Why now? Because he's 70 years old and in poor health.
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Thanks for the video.
It's too bad he choose the original T-64 armor to simulate rather than the far more prevalent T-64A and B.
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Is there supposed to be a video in the first post? If so it's not showing up on any device I have.
Note that it was only the original T-64 that had the 80+140 upper front hull armor array. The T-64A and T-72 Ural had 80+105+20.
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2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Wow, anyone with the tiniest familiarity with Chinese knows this statement is utterly meaningless as a signal to intent.
It's not meant to signal anything. It's all diplo-speak.
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9 hours ago, Grigb said:
Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) regarding China interests and RU Oil prices
- China has confirmed negotiations with the United States on the price limit for Russian oil
- If negotiations are successful, then there will be a significant reduction in Russian budget revenues
- For RU the fraternal or at least partner China is an illusion
A quick follow-up on this. China has apparently declined to cap the price, at least for now.
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China has refrained from supporting the United States’ call for a price cap on Russian oil while continuing to call for dialogue to address the “complicated issue”.
Thursday’s comments by the Ministry of Commerce came after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she had raised the possibility of setting a cap on the price of Russian oil during a virtual meeting with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He last week.
Yellen said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the Chinese side had listened and was prepared to have further discussions with the US.
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Adding this to my watch list.
Thanks!
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3 minutes ago, akd said:
Russian rail communication between Rubizhne and Lysychansk severed:
Sounds like this happened a while ago.
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9 minutes ago, JonS said:
Apart from anything else, underground parking almost always has a really low roof, which would prevent log vehicles getting in and out
A serious problem for Russians.
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The Financial Times article that tweet references says nothing about 300+km HIMARS ammo. Until we see a credible report I would assume it's not true.
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2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Interesting is that this girl seem to be serve as common infantry sergeant on frontlines, not medic/staff officer as many women in uniforms do. It's curious how common it is in Ukrainian army.
I have wondered the same. I recall a similar interview with a female SP artillery operator a while back.
There was also this female volunteer from Brazil. Tragically, she was killed last week.
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4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:Thanks for the tanks!
IIRC the literal translation is "Tanks a lot!"
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7 hours ago, Haiduk said:
I don't know what hit Belgorod, but over Kursk Russian AD shot down two old Soviet jet UAVs Tu-141.
Tochka-U, it seems.
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As Haiduk mentioned.
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7 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
It is interesting how much stuff gets Bayraktar'd on the sea versus the land. Is the Russian land-based air defense much better? Is it because on the sea they have to use only the long range one which can't target drones? Or are the TB2 operators on land just not releasing videos?
It's the former, according to some Ukrainian pilots:
“They were very useful and important in the very first days, stopping those columns [of Russian armored vehicles and troops heading toward the capital Kyiv], but now that they’ve built up good air defenses, they’re almost useless," Moonfish said.
TB2s are still being employed for "some special operations, including attack missions," according to Juice, "but, in very rare situations and in exact conditions."
Ninja'd by Haiduk
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1 minute ago, Megalon Jones said:
US V Corps has been reactivated and is heading for a permanent HQ to Poland.
Dustin Walker has some thoughts on this and related items from the announcement.
- The V Corps HQ in Poland: this is not the HQ itself (which is at Ft Knox), but its forward command post that simply goes from being rotational to permanent.
- Destroyers in Spain: US already has 4. Navy has been in the process of going to 6 for years. Agreement with Spain may be new, but the move is not.
- F-35 squadrons in UK: already planned to station 2 squadrons at Lakenheath. Difficult to imagine this is really 2 more on top. If it is, that would be a mistake given the need for 5th gen aircraft in the Indo-Pacific.
- Baltic rotations: important to keep building a small, sustainable, but responsive and potent US presence. If we’re shifting to deterrence by denial in the Baltics, European allies should provide new forces required.
- Rotational BCT in Romania: Finally more focus in SE Europe/Black Sea. This BCT rotation was suggested in the last admin (only then it was at the expense of 2CR in Germany). Will this impact fielding & deployment of MDTFs with full capability suite in the Indo-Pacific?
- HQ elements in Germany: ADA BDE HQ, SHORAD battalion, CSSB HQ, Engineer BDE HQ all seem like “deterrence package” elements the US Army has been planning for years, but were delayed by last admin. Again, doesn’t appear to be new.
- Air defense in Germany/Italy: Questionable that the US should be deploying more of our high-demand/low-supply air defense capabilities to Europe when our allies have capability and capacity (NASAMS, SAMP/T) and we’re lacking in the Indo-Pacific.
- Overall, not sure US deployments in Europe are being guided by any consistent rationale other than a basic desire for reassurance. With competing demands for forces in short supply, standard should be higher.
https://twitter.com/dustinrwalker/status/1542175369851199488
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Provides perspective on General Sir Patrick Sanders' earlier comments about needing more mass.
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Interesting speech by the new UK Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders.
"The scale of the war in Ukraine is unprecedented. 103 Battalion Tactical Groups committed. Up to 33,000 Russians dead, wounded, missing or captured. A casualty rate of up to 200 per day amongst the Ukrainian defenders. 77,000 square kilometres of territory seized – 43% of the total landmass of the Baltic states. Ammunition expenditure rates that would exhaust the combined stockpiles of several NATO countries in a matter of days.
"this year alone we have supplied 9500 anti-tank missiles, of which over 5000 were NLAW. We have already provided UK-based training for 650 AFU soldiers, and in the coming months, the British Army will deliver battle-winning skills to a further 10,000 Its just started.
Russia often starts wars badly. And because Russia wages war at the strategic, not the tactical level – its depth and resilience means it can suffer any number of campaigns, battles and engagements lost, regenerate and still ultimately prevail.
In Ukraine we’ve seen the limitations of deterrence by punishment. It has reinforced the importance of deterrence through denial - we must stop Russia seizing territory - rather than expecting to respond to a land grab with a delayed counteroffensive.
To succeed, the British Army, in conjunction with our NATO allies and partners, must be in-place or at especially high readiness - ideally a mix of both. Tripwires aren’t enough. If we fail to deter, there are no good choices given the cost of a potential counterattack and the associated nuclear threat. We must, therefore, meet strength with strength from the outset and be unequivocally prepared to fight for NATO territory.
If this battle came, we would likely be outnumbered at the point of attack and fighting like hell. Standoff air, maritime or cyber fires are unlikely to dominate on their own – Land will still be the decisive domain. And though I bow to no one in my advocacy for the need for game changing digital transformation, to put it bluntly, you can’t cyber your way across a river.
Success will be determined by combined arms and multi-domain competence. And mass."
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Kofman on a tweet storm. A few nuggets:
- The Russian goal in Donbas is likely to setup a battle for Slovyansk/Kramatorsk, with an axis of advance from Izyum and another from the east, assuming they were able to get past Bakhmut. This objective appears aspirational at best.
- The offensive in this part of the battlefield is likely to drag on, perhaps well into July or August. Though both sides are liable to become exhausted due to losses of manpower and materiel.
- Kherson is where a future UA counter offensive could play out. Despite the present focus on the Donbas, economically and strategically Kherson is more significant, and it is where UA ability to conduct offensive operations will likely be tested in the future.
- The general lack of force availability (on both sides) has forced this into an attrition war. The Russian military holds a substantial advantage in fires, although not a dramatic advantage in manpower and materiel, hence a lack of momentum in operations.
- The Russian mil is using LDNR as dismounted infantry, and trying to cobble the rest together (VDV, Motor rifle units, Wagner formations) into groups capable of offensive maneuver. They shift more capable forces around the battlefield to attempt localized advances.
- On the UA side, significant losses in recent months have led to a growing dependence on territorial defense forces and lower quality replacements. However, the situation does not suggest UA forces are anywhere near collapse in the Donbas.
- Ukrainian discourse in recent weeks had begun to paint a bleak picture in part to motivate faster delivery of Western military aid. UA is in a capability trench, low on ammunition, with losses mounting, in need of artillery & MLRS to attain some parity in an attrition war.
- HIMARS will allow UA to conduct strikes at tactical-operational depths, hitting Russian logistics & C2. But this capability is being provided in installments and the impact could be greatest when it is first introduced, before Russian forces attempt to adapt.
- Overall, local mil balance in Donbas favors Russia, but long term trends still favor Ukraine. However, that estimate is conditional on sustained Western military assistance, and is not necessarily predictive of outcomes. This is likely to be a protracted war.
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9 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:
Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...
Except with Churchill it would have been 4 PM drunk tweets.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
And yet so far the reaction from NATO has been the opposite: MORE defense spending.
An energy-independent China would be bad news for Taiwan.