LongLeftFlank
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Posts posted by LongLeftFlank
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6 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Whatever happened to that “1:1” attrition ratio claim from last week? Did anyone follow up with details? And of course was that straight casualties or combat power attrition?
Nobody really knows of course, except the UA (I doubt the Russians keep an accurate count, or care to).
But looking at the tactical vids, and the daily maps showing small 'bites' (city blocks) I suppose I can believe in a lower ratio, assuming Ivan has forsaken the human wave approach he used to break into and envelop the city.
In the (videoed) fights for the shattered suburban housing east of the river, for example, tactically it looks less like positional attacks on strongpoints (with cleared fields of fire) than squads and fire teams playing lethal hide-and seek, popping caps and RPGs at each other down fire lanes. Sniping isn't dominant in the videos, but no doubt they're playing a large role. Not everything gets videoed of course.
...But in such cases, with both sides having to move around and take chances, I'd expect a more even casualty rate.
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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I found a rather interesting Pro-Russian blog (Substack) from a link off of Ed's Twitter feed by the name of Big Serge:
https://substack.com/profile/102984907-big-serge
The analysis he does is fairly even handed and even insightful for the most part. He lets is political ideology slip through here and there, but in one section he derides both Macgregor and Kofman as being out of touch with reality; Macgregor because he's insane and Kofman because he's so optimistic about Ukraine and pessimistic about Russia. My guess is Big Serge thinks we're even more wrong than Kofman
In a way, Big Serge and Kofman are fairly similar in their outlook as both downplay Russia's deficiencies and highlight Ukraine's. Both believe that Russia can play the long game and win. Ironic that a critic of Kofman is making almost the same arguments.
The difference, though, is that Big Serge is inherently political and pro-Russian in his beliefs. He thinks Ukraine is a "failed state" acting as a puppet for NATO and that this whole war is NATO's fault. Yet the core of his analysis of the fighting isn't all that bad, in fact in some ways it's quite good.
In fact, some of his opinions are pretty much inline with ours here (i.e. Ukraine didn't retake Kherson, rather it obligated Russia to leave). He even admitted that he called the Kharkiv offensive incorrectly, though he gave himself credit for correctly calling out that Ukraine wouldn't be able to get much further than it did (he cherry picks a little about his mistakes, but still he admits making some).
For those who want an opinion that is pessimistic about Ukraine's military capabilities, yet isn't crazy deluded like Macgregor, I think it's a good read.
Steve
Yup, I've been quoting the Serge here for some time. As you say, his frameworks are sound, so long as you accept his premises. GIGO....
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17 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Meanwhile Russians gradually activate own actions on Kupiansk direction in Kharkiv oblast. Since 6th of February they began attacks on Hrianykivka village and at last about 17th of Feb could push off UKR trops from this villlage completely. After about three weeks pause, Russians, according to Mashovets, tried to push off UKR troops from positions around tiny village Masiutivka (22 inhabitants before a war). They attacked twice with platoon- size forces without armor support. First time that were elements of 138th motor-rifle brigade, attacked from Hrianykivka. In the second time these were elements of 25th motor-rifle brigade, attacked from positions south from Horobivka. Both attempts failed.
According to Mashovets, Russians probably have a plans of combined offensive operations in first order on Kupiansk direction with forces of Troops Groupment "Zapad" ("West") and in case of significant success, they can launch offensive on Vovchansk direction with forces of Operative Group "Belgorod" (about 7500-8000 troops)
In recent days, Russians, probably preparing to offensive, began to make in hidden way passages in own minefields and to remove our minefields on section Dvorichna - Lyman Pershyi. For this were involved units of 30th engineer-sapper regiment of 6th CAA of Western military district.
In area of Tavilzhanka village deployed 2 BTGs of 138th motor-rifle brigade, including assault units "Storm". In area of Vilshana village, were concentrated also 2 BTGs of 25th mech. brigade. Both 138th and 25th belong to 6th CAA of Western military district.
VDV desantniki debark from BMDs in muddy conditions in the northern sectors (Zoka is pro-RU so, wev).
Roads, from primary to secondary to.... mush [oops, raspu-ninjaed by Haiduk]
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1. Somewhat evenhanded assessment of the Bakhmut street fighting from a pro-Russian Middle Eastern source. ACHTUNG!
From the thread:
Over the past few days there has been talk of Ukraine's near defeat in Bakhmut. However, this claim, even from NATO-linked media is probably premature, as there is a strong possibility that the battle will drag on into April.
The reason for thinking this way has to do with Kiev's decision to continue defending the city, an objective that is primarily political, as it is intended to force an outcome similar to that of Mariupol, in which Ukrainian troops confronted the Russian offensive in Azovstal, in this case, the AZOM plant.
But it is also a strategic objective, and that is to gain time, not only to strengthen the next line of defence but also to allow new units to arrive at the front, many of them from the reserve and territorial defence groups.
****
2. ACHTUNG! MilitaryLand net can also be a little suss sometimes (Roepcke doomerism category), and Zoka quotes them both a LOT, so this RUMINT needs to be confirmed:
NOTE: Russian troll Geroman is claiming Wagner are in the outskirts of Orikhovo-Vasilivka, in the NW corner of the above map. We shall see, but if true and if not ejected, it may be time to go....
3. Curious though, when the DC beltway mainstream is more pessimistic than the other team and their fellow travelers....
Petraeus: '[The Russians] literally only have one division that's not already committed in battle.'
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2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
You know, like that bad dream Gerasimov keeps having, where he has found some trained artillerymen but instead they get thrown into pointless infantry assaults entirely unsupported by, oh, ARTILLERY?
Additional detail: these aggrieved gunners are from Moscow area....
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On 3/10/2023 at 7:04 PM, LongLeftFlank said:
1. The rocky road to Bakhmut
Some more grumbling about Gen. Syrski (DefMon, who doesn't like him, is translating the UA grognard). Is he Gneisenau or Schörner?
...or is it yet more BS, egging on the Ivans to keep sticking their ****s in the blender?
....
Umm, that's not good.
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13 hours ago, Haiduk said:
In recent days, Russians, probably preparing to offensive, began to make in hidden way passages in own minefields and to remove our minefields on section Dvorichna - Lyman Pershyi. For this were involved units of 30th engineer-sapper regiment of 6th CAA of Western military district.
In area of Tavilzhanka village deployed 2 BTGs of 138th motor-rifle brigade, including assault units "Storm". In area of Vilshana village, were concentrated also 2 BTGs of 25th mech. brigade. Both 138th and 25th belong to 6th CAA of Western military district.
Kill the sappers. (Nothing personal)
Another good across-the-hill analysis thread from UA officer Tatarigami here:
....You know, like that bad dream Gerasimov keeps having, where he has found some trained artillerymen but instead they get thrown into pointless infantry assaults entirely unsupported by, oh, ARTILLERY?
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2 hours ago, chrisl said:
Those guys need shotguns for when the drones show up to spot them, it's basically duck hunting.
For small quadcopters (flit and hover), fully agreed, but don't the Orlans referenced in the video loiter out of effective shotgun range? More like a remote control kit airplane.
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1 hour ago, sburke said:
can't we just deport this guy to Russia? He can then sit down with Shoigu and plan the great offensive.
Ed is not pro-Russian by any means, he just lives in his own pure strategy world. Or more properly, it's like a ''Philosophy of Strategy', even more abstract and detached from empirical observation.
...It would be a bit like Hitler (or the Kaiser) sitting down and playing Diplomacy, and using that to determine his actual war/alliance plans.
[P.S. My daughter and 2 friends are studying WWI in school at the moment, so I pulled Diplomacy off the shelf last weekend and played 8 turns (6 players, Turkey armed but inactive). It was enough for them to grasp the 'two front war' dilemma facing the Central Powers, and Britain's balancing/spoiling role on the Continent. They actually got into it a lot more than expected.]
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13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Yeah, I really think the IRS and FBI should investigate his bank account. Macgregor can not be THAT stupid and mentally ill, yet also be able to make cohesive sentences. Most likely he is on a payroll.
"What is stopping Russia from rolling over the Dnepr, taking Kyiv, and going to the Polish border?" he asks. Well, for starters, Russia is topping Russia.
Good lord. There's one thing to play Devil's Advocate, it's another thing to be hopelessly bogged down by Cold War logic, but this? Pure insanity or, as I posit, payment for services rendered.
Steve
And another CSIS alum has totally lost it too.
First the 'UN-monitored plebiscites' brainstorm that made Luttwak persona non grata in Kyiv, and now this....
The most charitable read on this is that he's concern trolling, to see if he can get Russia to actually TRY this, hoping nobody at Stavka looks at a map.
...or that none of the hostile nations nearby on all 3 sides takes any notice of the troop buildup.
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12 hours ago, akd said:
Interesting TERRA unit vid that shows them observing Pions firing HE-Frag clusters on Russian position. Also Ukrainian BMP-1s attacking same position at beginning and taking fire from RPGs and artillery:
Great stuff again thanks, these long sequences are priceless. This is the Pt2 denouement to the mech 'trench raid' we were puzzling over a while back. Now we see the method in the madness of that risky maneuver.
Looks like the muzhiks did have, or brought up, some AT after all (taking a bite out of a BMP flank skirt), and a RU tank also responded.
...So if I'm interpreting this correctly (?), the mech platoon's purpose in that high risk foray in the open (with dismounts) was to threaten the Russian outpost line credibly enough to draw out their response teams. Then the platoon pulled back (popping smoke), so the bombardment (including CBUs) could tear them all up. Plus any RU counterbombardment would waste shells plastering empty ground.
18th century bear-baiting, in effect.
...Oh wait, it seems they're still actually doing it in Russia, for tourists [2004]. Quelle surprise.
Blech.
Anyone else have thoughts? (on the videos)
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52 minutes ago, chrisl said:
They're cold warriors at their core, and despite the past 30 years are probably still harboring a view of Russia as the USSR (which really wasn't even the USSR that we thought they were).
Or maybe it's all the secondhand smoke from all the weed on the street in Santa Monica.
2 hours ago, The_Capt said:Yeesh, that report did not age well:
“The key military tasks of the unified strategic operation are all related to engaging targets beyond the range of Russian ground forces and artillery. These tasks are long-range conventional strikes against critical military and civilian targets; electronic warfare (EW) to disrupt command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR); counterspace actions; and cyberattacks against critical infrastructure.”
Russia could not get a unified operational level operation, let alone a strategic one. We were expecting this at the opening of this thing and instead got whatever this missile lobbing exercise has been.
Well Dara did post an amusing Wartime Pettiness Thread on Shoigu. (Warning, contains shirtless middle aged despots)
...It of course culminates in Prigozhin's WTF dude??!!!! moment being locked out of the office, and ghosted by the boss.
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9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Must. Not. Lose. Entire. Weekend. Watching. This. Entire. Series. Aaaargh!!!
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3 hours ago, Grigb said:
The eastern section is largely made up of village-type areas. They are dominated by urban-type areas from the west. It is extremely difficult for RU to bring reinforcements and equipment required for crossing and urban assaults.
I can't believe nobody thought of this one before...
Some (seemingly) nonpropagandised snips of military interest, from pro-Russian Twitter feeds, but season to taste please.
1. The rocky road to Bakhmut
2. Wow! on the second tank. Sinkhole or heavy artillery hit? Zabakhmutka (I think that's the Russian name) is east of the river.
3. Purple Heart box.
4. What airdefence doing?
5. This may be the wreckage of that withdrawal that got utterly shellacked a few days ago (second video)
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5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Jesus.
Ok, I won't play this odd game, let's better get back to topic perhaps.
FWIW, I am always happy to read your posts, and I usually learn something new. But hint: you can pick who you bother to reply to. Silence doesn't mean they've won (and if they think so, who gives a rats?)
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4 hours ago, chrisl said:
And we come back to the age old precision vs. mass.
If you can see every vehicle in theater on the ground or in the air, and for targets you really care about tell if they picked up their coffee cup in the last 20 minutes, and then target them from halfway around the world without even sending people into harms way, you don't need 10^9 artillery shells. Especially if you can deny the opponent virtually all of their own ISR. With enough ISR and precision you don't even need as many individual munitions as there are enemy troops.
The US/NATO isn't quite there yet (I think), but that's the clear intent and path. It's a combination of how US tech has developed since WWII and the range of adversaries that the US has pissed off on the way. It serves well in the fighting parts of things the US has gotten itself involved in (we lose in the "now what?" part), but it's not serving Ukraine as well as it could because of unwillingness to give them the full range of stuff for a variety of reasons, some good, some bad. NATO doesn't have enormous quantities of artillery because it's slow and expensive to move that stuff around in expeditionary actions. But if you have big fleets of deadly jets and suitably large fleets of refueling planes to get them close the theater, you can hit everything you want to hit without having to wait for cargo ships to sail halfway around the world.
Age old? not so sure. Don't take the bait, I'm just being cute.
Just for fun though, what could we argue to be the world's earliest 'precision weapons'? (let's talk actual battlefield weapons, not kamikazes or bomb dogs, or Viking longships or Mongol horsemen bringing 500 warriors out of nowhere to achieve overwhelming tactical odds). Rifle musket?
...But yeah, this old anyway (speaking of being a Doumer
)
Of course, the confident voice over sounds just like some of the folks on here lol. Pride goeth before a fall.
....so how long before we get to here?
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is starting to happen in the US. The Pandemic kick started the movement towards government sponsored action, even by some Republicans who are usually against government taking the lead and by Democrats who are generally against "corporate welfare".
Steve
Wind turbines are highly complex machines Steve, but that's fine. I don't mouth off about munitions cuz I am regularly reminded I'm not in the business. Anyway, it's a risk, nothing guaranteed.
As somebody aptly said a while back, the Arsenal of Democracy is no longer the only kid on the block here and the US Navy's rule of the waves doesn't apply. Nuff said.
***
1. Sadly, absent an existential WW3 level Clear and Present Danger, resulting in broad societal mobilisation -- and that would take some time, assuming no nuclear fireballs -- I cannot share your optimism about a heavy manufacturing rejuvenation in the US (or Canada), not at the scale we're discussing here. Alas, Russia is not the only one whose social mobilisation capability has withered.
2. Ergo, my thought is that the first urgent installation has to take place in 'Greater non-Russian Slavdom', where folks still remember how to manage and work in large industrial combines. Ironically, thanks to the legacy of Stalinism.
3. I know you live out in the semi rural homelands of 'Yankee ingenuity', where there are small workshops with practical problem solvers, but as you know that hasn't scaled up to support a conventional war machine since 1781. Anyway, those folks live on the margins of society now. The credentialed people with all the money and power, whether in the town county clubs (Repubs) or in the Coastal metropoles (Dems) don't even speak the same language as the Doers anymore, not even when their basements flood out. So the folks with the resources to do tangible stuff at scale basically have no connection to those who actually know how.
4. Infra-wise, the 'bones are there', mainly with existing defence and aircraft plants, but even with a Uniparty consensus and some quality technocrats put in charge (big stretch there), we're talking a decade long process....
5. Requiring massive subsidies, with ample opportunity for subversion and diversion, by that same self-involved managerial class that sold 2 generations down the river and overseas, starting around 1990 (That Giant Sucking Sound).
6. And even without the waste, fraud and abuse thing, 40 years of 'managers' focused on fluff like marketing, outsourcing and HR toy soldiers and dumb financing tricks are functionally useless: you'd literally need to fire them all and start again. This are the people who own America (and Canada) today, lock stock and barrel. They won't go quietly.
Sorry to be a downer.
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47 minutes ago, sburke said:
I'm gonna bring up squirrels again
43 minutes ago, danfrodo said:oh, yeah, sorry for continuing derailment of thread. I'm done, I promise. Unless someone brings up the NFL. Or guitars or amps. Or sausage.
Mate, I am very hard to pigeonhole on the political spectrum, in any country. There's times to let smart kids 'move fast and break things', and there's times to let technocratic institutions mobilise and direct resources.
We are in phase B. I'm also too old to be a smart kid anymore.
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10 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:
Here is a very interesting read. @LongLeftFlank
While reading the post from Galeev and Suyi控 , one of the Suyi控’s opinion posted back in Jan caught my attention. He believes the Putin’s war preparation began as early as 2016.
https://www.zhihu.com/question/566794678/answer/2837159962
He presents two arguments.
1, Russia formed 10 division from 2016-22. Usually people believe this expansion is a Shoigu’s office politics tricks , to appease the Russian army officer corps (because Serdyukov's reform kills a lot of promotion opportunities for the young officers) . Here Suyi控believes this is a sign of war preparation.
2, most interesting part, he states that Russia rapidly expended the ammunition production back in 2016, he put two references ,
https://tass.ru/ekonomika/13526061
https://realnoevremya.ru/articles/81757-opk-gotovitsya-zavalit-rynok-feyerverkami-vmesto-patronov
I am not sure how strong the evidence is because usually it doesn’t tell too much if the market of ammunition + special chemicals increased 23% revenue from 2015 to 2016. But I have never heard any other similar opinion claims Putin prepare this “SMO” as early as 2016.
Anyway, an interesting read.
Many thanks for this.
Suyi's analysis is excellent, although since my foreign language skills (beyond tres mal high school French) are limited to ordering beer and finding a WC in 3 dozen countries, I mainly check in on his English Twitter feed.
While house experts here like to beat me up over doomsaying (and should feel free to do so), I continue to check 'the other side of the hill' for early indicators or hints of improvement. It's too important not to.
****
There is only one industrial power in the world today capable of ramping production of low tech artillery shells and other low-to-medium tech consumables within 6 month timeframes, and it's China. Russia, no way.
I'm not in the miltech business, but I have watched China basically eat the entire global (high tech but mature) wind turbine OEM sector alive over the last 5 years.
No foreign maker competes today unless they put their branding on a 95%+ Chinese built product, that is (outside the West) installed (and likely maintained by) Chinese EPC engineers and technicians all the way down to welders, using Chinese construction equipment and hand tools. Vertically integrated.
Let us not fool ourselves about their capabilities to ramp up production of pretty much any mature tech by orders of magnitude in periods measured in months, given a directive from Beijing.
They are well beyond the cheap knockoffs stage now, although they'll certainly cut corners, if they can make money off it (and not get shot in a stadium).
****
IMHO, the 'European Slavic' countries, using US and EU capital and knowhow, and where most people still make things (experienced engineers and machinists and, sorry, plumbers are still available), need to become (one of the) Western alternatives to China ASAP, first in the heavy military and then more broadly in the wider heavy manufacturing sector.
But it is not clear (again IMHO) whether the 'old West' business sector, even old 'MIC' fixtures like Boeing and GE, have not already gone too far up their own McKinseyized/ financialized/Black Rock ESG activist posteriors to be more of a help than a barrier in aiding this transition.
Let's just say it, this needs to be a government led effort and let's face it, that's Team America (**** yeah!).
[/screed]
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Heartwarming! But all these guys look like they were chiseled out of granite.
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20 hours ago, Sublime said:
Also WTF happened to the wild *** discord that every. single. time. I signed on everyone would tell me they assumed I was dead?
Welcome home brother.
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
Not sure what you mean - the rumor I reported is unconfirmed. That's why I call it rumor.
I say it again - it was not confirmed that why it is rumor. But this is not the same type of rumor that you usually operate.
You unwisely call any unconfirmed information a rumor. I call only credible unconfirmed information a rumor. That's why it is confusing for you.
Except you do not understand neither defenition nor my system. But you are free to do whatever you want.
I am not joking at all.
Ah, let 'em split hairs.
We are happy to have you back onside!
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19 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
Oh good Lord no...
They're used to it....
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16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Putin: "so you're saying there's a chance? And with just this one little trick?"
Well, as Galeev pointed out many moons ago (perhaps more credible Russia threat analysts did as well) that, in addition to selling off a lot of the 'warehoused' kit and downsizing divisions to brigades to save money and focus on Chechnya-sized expeditionary wars, Serdyukov and the Kremlin also dismantled, or at least allowed to decay, the Soviet mass social mobilisation system. So the folks who remember how to do that are all dead or retired, and the general population is out of the habit. Not totally of course, but it's not a highly functional machine, and Putin can't simply will it back into being.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Agreed, again, video doesn't tell the entire story but while the heavy mortar section looked well trained and kitted out, the guys were in their 40s and 50s. The infantry section contesting that crossroads with the shattered M113 were clearly TDDs.
Much respect to these guys, but this doesn't scream 'cream of the new UA army' to me.