The_Capt

I suspect events are past that now. If Prig can make it to Moscow in force and the RA continues to fold, I somehow doubt his loyalty to "The Boss" is so grand that he hands power back to him for a promotion to MoD. This is organized crime, when you take out the Don, you do it to become the Don or he just shoots you in the head later. I think we are quickly passing on off ramps.

Considering Wagner is reportedly in possession of tanks and AFVs "disarming" them sounds a bit more complicated than usual. Sounds like one more rumor as they swirl around.

Well it kinda looks like it has already started. This difference between now and the previous three times is that this collapse could be strategic. Unless Putin and Prog make nice-nice (less and less likely) or Putin can box this thing back up quickly (also kinda looking less likely) the damage this whole venture is causing is going to stick. The next question is “how bad?” How uncontrollable is the fall going to be? A little is fine as we will wind up with some new jerks to try and deal with but they likely will not want to continue the war. A lot is bad, potentially very bad. As in, it will not be contained to Russia, bad.

Ok, well it is the weekend so good time to watch the things unfold. I suspect if Putin cannot contain this by Sun, we could be in a new ballgame.

For Soviet stuff, start here: https://www.thelightningpress.com/fm_100-2_series_red_team_army/. No need to buy copies as they are all available online.

Just getting caught up. How sure are we that Wagner is in Voronezh? Or is this just rumour? If Wagner somehow can take Voronezh they will basically own the LOCs for the RA in the entire Ukrainian theatre. Beyond that, I would start looking for indicators of power brokers in the backfield. Talking heads gonna talk but real players are the ones in the background. And the there are those that are just waiting in the tall grass. In chess I would definitely call this entire move “check”, still not sure if Prig can do “checkmate”. But as we have said, things go slow…until they go fast.

Prig knows where to hit, give him that. Likely been thinking about this move for awhile. Ironic if he can quickly take a major city in a lightening strike…you know….after Feb 22…

What happened to Wagner having “its own airforce?” Well if he isn’t going to run, I am not sure how attacking Moscow with a few hundred troops is a better idea. We will have to see just how big this is or will become. From what we do know Wagner is not a few hundred members of a Freedom Legion. Even a few thousand with axes to grind and modern military equipment could make life very difficult in the RA backfield. If he has 25k as is being reported and can keep them onside, well that is likely large enough to cause a real stink and sustain it. The real question here is “what will the RA do?” Repercussions of this, if it does not get tied off quickly, are not small. The integrity of the Russian military is a start. Then we get factions who are already pissed off and angry who may join in - Russia is a really big country to try and secure at the best of times. Near abroad deciding to vote with their feet. China has good excuses to simply cut Putin loose if this gets noisy enough. I am pretty sure there are more…economic springs to mind.

Kinda weird that if he did not have the force strength that he would be “invading Russia”. I mean if he is on a suicide run with a few loyal troops why charge into Russia? They guy has access to transport aircraft, if he was light on forces why not go to Syria or Sudan and establish a fiefdom and play Wild Geese.

Mainstream picking it up now: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/moscow-accuses-wagner-head-of-mutiny-he-says-his-forces-enter-russia-1.6453680

If confirmed, that is more than a few hold outs. Looks like a battalion at least.

Now that is the real rub…does Wagner hold it together? If he has 25k troops in the back country and they stick it out this could be a game changer…up to world ender. If they evaporate somewhat, we could be looking at a really nasty insurgency in the backfield. Or they completely fold up and hang Prig from a pole. Pretty much all up for grabs really. Happy Friday.

Pretty damned significant. He could basically cut off Crimea’s back door for starters. Which would mean all logistics would be reliant on the strategic land bridge or sea. If he could spread the pain for enough he could severely cut off DPR/LNR - there are some corridors from the North they could try to push down. RA units would be in dire straights as they basically have very angry Ukrainians to the front of a very long front line, while Wagner plays merry f#ckery on what looks like about 80% of their LOCs. Wagner would basically have them by the sustainment testicles. RA could not let this stand as it would severely risk collapse of their front line positions in about a week of full choke is applied. Airstrikes are really problematic as a solution, not only because Wagner likely has AD but trying to figure out who is who on the ground gets really tricky. And then there is the SOF factor. Wagner is not only “elite”, they are set up to fight like SOF which means highly distributed. So we could see a boiling insurgency in front of the more conventional troops. If Prig is smart he could turn this into a real play by simply threatening the entire RA in Ukraine. Any chance him and Putin will make nice-nice and blame it on someone they can throw out a window?

I would say, “Yes”. This was all the discussion about a theory of Russian defeat…and right now it looks like there isn’t one. If Russia goes into complete free fall it could get very crazy very fast. We have never had a nuclear power have a full scale civil war, so let’s hope it does not come to it as we are basically off the map. Key thing to watch out for is the direction of the wind in the RA. If they start peeling off in support of Wagner in significant numbers the sh#tshow is likely on. If it stays down to “just” Wagner’s reported 25k troops in Russia plus whatever they have in other countries it might be slower burning…maybe.

Nothing good. Wagner is pretty big and wide scope so that will mean resources diverted to get this back under control. Priority will be Russia but Wagner is all over the MENA and can quickly turn into a highly hooked up terror organization - we might start seeming Russian industry/commercial and diplomatic interest having sudden accidents. In Russia, my guess is that Wagner will need to bring elements of the RA onto their side for this thing to go anywhere. Unless, gawd help us, Wagner has managed to get its hands on WMDs of some sort. High end, disruption gets so big the RA in Ukraine collapses strategically to try and contain this. Middle end, significant disruption, that has operational effects which could accelerate the UA timetable. Low end, this things get tied off quickly and tightly. Prig winds up taking a dirt nap, maybe after a show trial and Putin/MoD stays really nervous with more smoking accidents as I already mentioned.

Not quite ready to call that. However, why Russia abandoned its successes in GZ/Hybrid warfare and decided to "go loud" baffles me to this day. I mean lets say in an alt universe they pulled it all off. Ukraine falls, they occupy the country...how does this make things better? Finland and Sweden still running to NATO. NATO doubling down on Baltics (FFS, Putin managed to get Canadian tanks back in Europe...under a freakin Liberal government no less!) and securing heavy defence spending. We likely would have gotten all in on "support to Ukrainian resistance" as an insurgency from hell with safe havens all over the place except Belarus went to town. I am sure from inside the dark, warm and smelly place within the Kremlin there was a vision of victory here but this one has to go down as one of the worst strategic mis-steps of the last 100 years. Actually when you look at those 100 years, quite a crappy batting average by Russia overall wrt strategic decisions.

Well I for one fully support CMCW reading and playthroughs. FM 100-2-1 was a key reference for when we built the game.

It is not the mistress "knowing and telling" on the general. It is that on Tues she went to the love nest, which is weird because normally it is on Wed. Then on Thurs the driver had to in and get maintenance done on the car, which is off schedule. Then he picked up the cigarettes the general really likes that they cannot get in theatre. Then the generals EA got picked up telling Mom he is missing dinner on Sun. So what does that tell us? Well the general is moving off-schedule. Now link that into another few thousand data points with AI pattern recognition support and finding where that general is going doesn't take Prig/MoD dropping a dime...it is the simple fact that we have pointed so many assets and architecture at the problem. We save em up for multiple HVT strikes in a short period to cause shock within the RA C2 system - and as you note, suspicion. It really is just part of larger strategic shaping campaign that the UA and west have likely been conducting for months over the winter. None of this disproves the theory that Prig is off the leash, or other elements of Russian MoD are trying to do some cleaning. I suspect we have intel pictures on that as well. US/western intel has not been this energized since the Cold War - even GWOT likely did not get this level of density and unlike terrorists, RA assets are a lot harder to hide. And all that ISR is sitting on 21st century technology. We have seen evidence of this before during the wave of RA leadership strikes last summer leading into the Fall Offensive.

This goes a long way to explaining timing. It is the shock value to RA C2 in a short period of time. Clipping RA generals in onesies and twosies does not have the same impact as a bunch all at once, particularly if you are supporting a counter-offensive. As to Russian info security. Well first off they have been leaking like an incontinent horse this entire war. Second, I do not think people have a full appreciation of western ISR being pointed at this problem. Finding an RA general is not easy but people simply give off too much data to hide well in this day and age. That general has a driver, wife, mistress whatever and they all establish a pattern around the person. Short of the general camo-ing up and hiding in a hole, finding them is not what it once was.

They must have hit it hard. Likely created load restrictions that forced the backup.

Totally true. As to C4ISR, well as a total hypothetical - if western cyber has managed to penetrate an Russian network that yields them hi resolution LOCSTATS on RA HVT, they may have laid in wait for the UA counter-offensive for months. The sudden "improvement" is much more likely the end result of months of putting things into place in order to support the UA push. Any information trickling out of Russian MoD could be a leak, could be a pin-prick, could be a tick, could be a mole. My best advice is to keep an eye on all of them.

We have been wondering if this guy has been off the leash for sometime now. I think it is safe to say that he definitely looks that way now.

Long time listener, first time caller...welcome. Not a bad idea, however, I am always cautious about single node theories as they often have to be strung together by conspiracy. If I am reading you correctly your position is that Prig has flipped and now is barfing intel on HVTs, hence the recent successes? Could be a factor, however one has to realize that the C4ISR architecture being employed by the UA and deeply supported by the West is epic...and I am talking "in the history of the species - epic". The HVT strikes could simply be a result of the UA probing which has caused the RA C2 structure to light itself up. It could be a result of partisan asset activation that has remain dormant until the c-offensive. It could be a multi-domain hack that the west and UA have on an RA C2 vulnerability that they been saving up and just pulled the trigger. It is most likely a combination of all of the above to be honest. Or it could be an inside job to clean house of disloyal or problematic RA leadership - although I have to wonder why people would not do this the old fashion way of "sudden health crisis" as opposed to high profile Ukrainian HIMAR. My advice is to keep an eye out for more indicators but don't get scope eye on any one solution. In reality we likely will not fully understand what happened for years, maybe never.

Well I support the first activity, there will be time enough for the second in the post-apocalyptical afterglow. What do you think the odds are for a soft/silent-Article 5 that starts prosecuting non-kinetic targets inside Russia? Also, I am not sure what we do if radiation drifts into Poland or somesuch and then they go all Article 5.

Excellent finds. Good lord, they were still talking about close order in 1911?! I can see right away how their C2 requirements were colliding with 20th century firepower - that is another key consideration. You can see the beginnings of Mission Command here as well. There are several thesis opportunities here for anyone interested. Thank you very much for the Jutland ref, I can feel another journey of exploration ahead of me.