The_Capt

Not even close. We have lost no lives, at least not government sanctioned (volunteers are a different story). The US alone spent over $2T in Afghanistan. And apparently nearly $6.4T on the whole MENA problem set since 9/11: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/us-spent-6point4-trillion-on-middle-east-wars-since-2001-study.html Now the pace of the contributions in Ukraine has been pretty fast but it still is nowhere near the pace and scale of spending of the Gulf War: https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/c/costs-major-us-wars.html https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040 We have joined this war, there is blood on our hands and we are in it to defeat another nation state. There is a lot of nervous twitter going around on this war, and frankly a lot of it is not really based on realistic factors (eg the bottomless Russian pit of manpower). But the failure of western perceptions to understand this war for what it is, and to be ready to make sacrifices to reinforce and sustain the framework that protects our way of life - as messed up and upside down as it is at times - is the one thing that does keep me up at night. The political unity being displayed is deeply heartening and I think we definitely have pulled it together; however, we have not articulated the likely real costs and what it is worth to us very well. I have no doubt the grown ups up top understand all of this clearly (fingers crossed), but we live in democracies, so Johnny Lunchbox and the goof down the street with the “F#ck Joe Biden” flag need to get it too. Or at least enough of us, and that is the part that does make me a little nervous.

This is because we in the west are still thinking manoeuvre warfare while Ukraine is literally inventing corrosive warfare doctrine as they go. As to “the west running out”, if this happens it is entirely self-inflicted. We have not mobilized one wit since this war started. We shifted existing assets, we have reinforced and expanded existing contracts, industry is putting on a few extra shifts on existing military industrial bases. We may run out of our comfort zone but as to exhausting the military industrial capacity of the west, we are not even scratching the surface. As soon as we see car manufacturers in Detroit re-tooling for IFVs, toy companies shift to UAS, big pharma shift to explosives and ammunition then we are running out. And we are back to sacrifice. What are we actually willing to give up to win this thing?

Oh my dear sweet hobbit, it is all the rage: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-capitalism https://www.amazon.ca/s?k=the+end+of+capitalism&gclid=CjwKCAiA_6yfBhBNEiwAkmXy5zDxVlZbB-qEZB_W3e3pabpsITBmsDYvu9mE1ltmgTLxcVWyA1FkPhoCdm0QAvD_BwE&hvadid=208312141359&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9000685&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=15884104887862575394&hvtargid=kwd-354484366687&hydadcr=23313_10093172&tag=googcana-20&ref=pd_sl_r5hsdx43m_e I think the major issue is the fact that in order to function it needs to expand and nothing can do this indefinitely. And the impact of AI may break it as well - https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/07/02/how-artificial-intelligence-could-kill-capitalism/ Personally, I do not think I read in enough to have an opinion.

Right?! Afghanistan was actually pretty smart. There was not way to fix that place without breaking it first. It’s national anthem should be “Don’t try and fix me, I like me broken.” The US got out before it joined the graveyard of empires club. As to US power, I think there is a combination of Shaudenfreude/wishful thinking by some, and fear by others. The metrics of national power do not add up to a major decline. Economically by far largest economy (debate rages on how brittle and the impending “end-of-capitalism”), which pretty much fund all the others. Largest and most modern military in the history of the species. Information power is immense. Cultural power is also incredibly potent. Diplomatic, likely the lightest touch of any empire in history - I have seen the US take bad deals just to keep people onside. The only thing that really concerns are the deep political divisions. We should sidestep those here as they could derail this thread really fast but on the outside we do despair at the apparent death of compromise. I think the war in Ukraine has actually gone a long way to heal some of those deep rifts, or at least I hope so. The US seems to operate best when it has competition - you guys do love a good hard game. 30 years at the top unchallenged may have been unhealthy for you. And of course both Russian and China appear dim enough to overtly provoke, which is the exact opposite strategy I would employ to erode the US.

Hm, maybe if you squint hard enough. I mean Iran had no direct involvement in the region, where the Ottomans owned Serbia for a good long stretch. I have held for some time that the era we are entering into looks a lot like pre-WW1. Some stuff is in reverse like the re-emergence of a Westphalian model as push back, as opposed to its collapse. But there are a lot of similarities as the major players all jockey. The big question to my mind is, “just how much has the US actually contracted?” I think this war is a big test of that. Putin bet on “enough”.

Ya that does sound about right. So all we need right now is a nasty trigger and the whole thing goes up. So who are the Ottomans in this equation?

I am betting on the emergence of an AI based religion in my lifetime. Things like Dark City states are also still out there. The opiates of modern society tend to wear off at times like these, and people start to wake up and see through the matrix. Most are crazy as a sh#t house rat, but every now and again you get a dangerous one. We will see. Oh, yes and you are absolutely correct, we are doing all this while hurtling towards a species bottlenecking cliff of climate change...I wonder if this is what the years before the Bronze Age collapse felt like?

I actually think the most critical resource is an idea. We have not seen a real rise of ideology in whatever this thing is, but it is right around the corner - in fact it is what most the yelling is about. We have the old "isms" and of course "gimme some of that old timey religion" but I suspect some new ideas are just waiting to explode, they tend to at times like these. They might be re-hashes of older ones or maybe heading into science fiction. Do not know. But humans have shown that they will kill and die in the millions for an idea - and no one has the market cornered on this resource yet.

She is a full Colonel and already knows the score.

How to win based on what we have seen: - Finding beats flanking. Achieve C4ISR superiority - max yours out, connect it all and empower your people to lowest level. Deny same to enemy. - Erode opponents operational enablers - make them blinder, dumber and poorly supplied. Prioritize C4ISR, logistics and guns. - Start with firepower, not manoeuvre. Hit them the entire length of their operational system - focus on infiltration for positioning, maximize the link between ISR, dispersed light infantry and precision fires. Isolate where you can and erode piecemeal in the front. - Induce internal stress. By combining all three, along with clever operational emphasis you can get your opponent to be forced to shift and strain - double down on that until he starts to show cracks. - Only once you have done the above and have met your operational indicators do you try conventional manoeuvre. - Rinse and repeat until they collapse under a combination of your pressure and their own weight. Keep doing it until they run out of people, will or both, or you run out of ammo. If you can get airpower to work in any of that, well you have cracked the code.

So here we are coming up a year into this thing and I think it is fair to say that the impact of this war on a global scale has been significant and very likely permanent. The fact that it came on the heels of a the worst global pandemic since 1918, and that on the heels of the end of the Cold War and 9/11 all speak to one helluva crazy ride...and I suspect we are just getting started. So I am seeing the same question, of variations thereof, being asked all over the internet as we come up on the 1st anniversary of this war: When will this war end? This is a reasonable and perfectly predictable question. However, it is really not asking when this war will actually end, it is really asking "when will we go back to normal? The way things were?" Well the short answer is that this war will likely not end, it will turn into the next one. For this war to end, Ukraine and Russia would have to accept a lasting peace between their two nation states - and I am pretty sure that ship has sailed for a few generations at least. Watching the Ukrainian and Russian political levels, something has dawned on me - they have already figured this out and are waiting patiently for the rest of the world to catch up. It would be a serious mistake to think that once the killing abates that we can all go back to whatever we were doing before this thing broke out. Too many fundamentals have been impacted. The power balance in Europe, the role of Russia and its orientation, some deeper elements of warfare itself. We are off the cliff here and in freefall, so no point arguing about the upholstery. We can debate when the RA will fold, or freeze or whatever. But the reality is that after this conflict a second one between the West and Russia is waiting in the wings. Or if Russia completely implodes, another major (and very dangerous) conflict there. And all the while we have the escalating competition between the US and China. My sense we are at the beginning of a global scale collision, but it will not likely be WW3 (at least not yet), nor will it be a rehash of the Cold War - although it will share elements of it. No this will more likely be something else entirely, but in so many ways the same. A Tepid War, a Hot Peace, an Impressionist War with Baroque outbreaks. This might just be the first war for full control of the human race and building the edifice for what comes next. Regardless, the violence and dying in Ukraine will end or taper off, and that is not small. But all war is an irreconcilable collision of human certainty that contains an element of violence, and we are headed for a big one on many levels. We have horizontal collisions between the people and the state, between people themselves and between states. The war in Ukraine is a very real and brutal manifestation of things that have been simmering under the surface for years. So this war will not end, it will morph and evolve. Everyone needs to get used to that idea because I suspect our grandkids will be still fighting it. Everyone needs to start thinking about sacrifice - something we are not very good at doing in the west. I mean we understand it on some level, and some have had to sacrifice everything in the last 30 years. However, on a broad scale I think we will need to be ready to make a lot more sacrifices in order to keep a voice in what happens next, and Ukraine is just the opening shot.

The Russians lost this fight in the first half hour, maybe less. It wouldn't matter what vehicles or tanks the RA had at this point. They were spotted and had beads all over them. Local UA forces have time to shift and react...the rest is pretty much adjectives. Now this is clearly a probing action, but an assault in many way would be worse as it is more vehicles and many of them specialized. Which would bring down bigger and madder fires from the UA. The the RA tries to manoeuvre, get watched while trying to do it...and gets killed. Repeat this all along the line for days and we start to see a pattern.

This is why we can't have nice things...

Are we sure he has not been lurking on this forum? Again, these are not thing one can fix in even a year or two. “Bergen: Is Russia failing because of failures of intelligence? Failures of its conscripts? Failures of Russian military culture? All the above? Petraeus: All of the above and more. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.”

Talk about a non sequitor. I meant that in no country on the planet is the public/very high profile reveal of strategic ISR assets a good thing - all us talking about it because it is all over the news is evidence that this is an intelligence failure, pure and simple. Name me one example in the modern era where this kind of exposure of strategic intelligence gathering was a “good thing”. Hell the US took a lot of risks exposing the intel it had on Russia in this war. It was a good risk but they gave a lot away doing it. To call this anything else is to start digging a mythological dread trap. That is a major analytical failing - projecting out fears onto an opponent and building a mythological framework around that, as opposed to what is the most likely (and simplest) explanation. We see it right here - the Chinese have been investing in balloon technology for years, they must know what they are doing. They just had four platforms detected (one of them by freaking amateur astronomers) and shot down. Well that can’t be what it looks like, they must be up to something…hmm, let’s invent all sorts of weird and wonderful theories that create more fear and uncertainty, and then build more theories on those. This is not good analysis of the situation. But it is all sorts of flexible thinking. We also saw this in this war. “Russia must have a magic rabbit behind its back because we all know they are really dangerous and we can’t possible understand their strategic mindset.” ”Well no, they just really pooped the bed on their strategy. There is no deeper plot here, this is straight up desperate attritional warfare leading nowhere (again).” “That is projecting our thinking rigidly and failing to consider the mystical Russian strategy.” “Uh no, it is just really bad planning and execution, and roughly 300k casualties agree with me. Look they are doing it again.” Most times it is just a freakin duck. Oh and for the record if I did have classified knowledge of the Chinese calculus on this whole thing I sure as hell would not be sharing it with strangers on a public Internet forum. We get some more data, sure we can build out on that but it should come with indicators. If the Chinese start fielding equipment that can exceed our response times - because we gave it all away scrambling to shoot down balloons (honestly not sure how that would work given physics) or if Russia can actually pull off a break out battle and gain an operational objective. Then we re-assess and quickly reorientate to a new situation. That is how professionals do it. Can we get caught off guard? Sure, but most of those are human error or outright political filtering, not some clever ploy by an opponent. Making masterminds out of idiots is just as bad, maybe worse, than underestimating an opponents capabilities.

Well missing a few facts though. As strategic ISR platforms these ballon’s have been a complete failure because we are all talking about them. Another fact, they have lost up to four which were detected shot down using conventional aircraft and current technology so there is no demonstrable advantage to how they are being employed. In fact they are demonstrating disadvantages of this long held capability. What is speculation is stuff like, “They must have dozens we didn’t see”. “They have been working on these for years so they must be a threat somehow”, “They are using them with other intent in mind”…oh and the best one so far “they clearly can put nukes on these things”. Speculation is fine but like anything else, there is good speculation - a logical extension of assumptions based on a solid foundation of facts. And bad speculation - a logical extension of assumptions based on fear and hysteria. A good speculation is that if China needs a payload the size of a school bus to do SIGINT then we have likely over estimated their technological abilities in this area. Another is that balloons make excellent back up systems for GPS/NAV War so we might want to start paying attention to that angle. Anyway moving on.

Ok, we are officially in a Dr Stangelove sequel here…this has to be a bit. Of all the ways to deliver a nuclear weapon - bombers, fighters, hypersonic cruise missiles, stealth hypersonic cruise missiles, submarine launched ballistic missiles at short range, long range ballistic missiles etc. A giant EM shining balloon moving at 120 km per hour is probably right down the list next to “catapult on a barge”. But wait, the Chinese will put 12 of these together UP style and then hang a nuclear carrier below them…dastardly. And then they will strap a bunch of African swallows together…

No they are laughably bad penetrating strategic ISR platforms though. The fact that we spotted and shot down 4 in a week is a pretty good hint. The major point of a strategic ISR asset is ability to be undetected and failing that deniable, and failing that be too fast for defensive systems to react. And these ridiculous balloons are failing gloriously on all counts. I mean seriously they have a top speed of about 120 kph…”oh no, the Chinese are slowly advancing to tap into my SkiptheDishes order!” Seriously. Sure balloons can be a platform - we used them for tac ISR in Afghanistan (hilarious story there). For Operational or even Strategic they need stand-off, normally over a safe or friendly nation or international waters…not freakin Lake Huron. It is not the platform that should be mocked, it is how they are being employed. In fact the only thing I can think of is that the Chinese must be tunnelling beneath our feet and this is a clever ploy to keep us looking up. What they have done is creating an escalating diplomatic incident and shore up NORAD funding for the next decade - seriously what is it these authoritarian governments don’t get with western apathy. Our North Warning System is from the 70s and we have been delaying the billions required for upgrades for years…and then the Chinese start lobbing freaking balloons everywhere. Bottom line - these sound like some terrible idea that got out in front of policy makers in China and they have some serious cleanup to do. In fact this feels more North Korean than Chinese to be honest. Now if China starts putting kinetic payloads on these or somesuch, well then we just entered into “acts of war territory” and balloons will be the last thing we need to worry about.

Pro-kleptocracy, pro-illegal war and anti rule of law (well those not his own), pro-authoritarian, pro-mis/dis information, pro-murder of just about everyone including his own people. The guy is a piece of work. The problem is that certain political parties back at home jumped on some of this particular bandwagon - obviously not to the same extremes. They did so not because I think they honestly believe this stuff, but because like JRR Tolkien wrote: And nine, nine rings were gifted to the race of men, who, above all else, desire power. And here we are. Personally I think political discourse is all part of free and fair democracy, and people with different perspectives need to be valued and respected. But when you find yourself siding with a genocidal monster based on your political position it may be time for some quiet time and a re-think.

Violence is not the answer, but it makes a helluva point in the argument. All war is a violent argument - a collision of irreconcilable collective human certainties.

Minefield recording is incredibly hard at the best of times. In NATO there are reports that need to be filed and sent up the chain, and held for post-war clean up. Problem is guys get killed in mid-process, reports get lost or destroyed. And then there is the reality that the battlefield is not a static place. Ground gets churned up, things get tossed around etc. Add this to what has looked like a professional train wreck and zero adherence to LOAC and I seriously doubt the minefield record keeping by Wagner is "up to snuff".

Massive dumb bombing of civilian centres will likely lead to western conventional escalation - so more tanks/IFVs, AD, ATACMS and a rapidly expanded target list…oh and the most dangerous weapon of all, money. Clearly we don’t get Russia but I would say the cognitive vacuum is mutual.

Nah, he won’t sober up until noon at least. And the hangover ought to bleed right into the evening drowning sorrows session. Probably fine for the next 48, after the mourning period though…

I will do you one better. No western general has fought this type of war in over 70 years. There are no generals left alive in the west who were generals in that war. We are pretty much off the map here, even the Gulf War was nothing like this. Watching the retried general commentators, the best ones are those who learned the quickest and dropped western doctrine very early on. We all recall the sweeping red and blue arrows? That was straight out of the western doctrine playbooks but simply did not represent the realities of this war. And here is the thing, the Russians don’t know what they are doing either. None of their senior GOs have any experience in this scope and scale of conflict, which actually explains a lot.

And to completely derail things further, ladies and gentlemen we are officially in the First World Balloon War. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/china-says-more-than-10-u-s-balloons-flew-in-its-airspace-1.6271186 https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/u-s-jets-down-4-objects-in-8-days-unprecedented-in-peacetime-1.6271134 The only answer can be a Bond Villain launching them in both directions at the same time. We all knew it was only a matter of time.