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According to Oryx, UA has lost 274 MBTs. So they're coming out ahead, which is stunning (or would have been thought so in the first few weeks).

And now I'm in the same boat Yes, Scott Adams invented Elbonia.

I believe it is correct in terms of mines in the ground, which is the most important metric. From wikipedia: " In 2011, the number of landmines dispersed is higher than ever since 2004, landmines being dispersed in Libya, Syria, and Myanmar", sourced from: Organization: More landmines installed than in years - Arms industry - Foreign countries - HS.fi (archive.org)

As best I can recall - it was a long time ago - looked something like this. Simulated unplanned survival (not full ECWCS gear, and it was before then anyway): Back to my comment about "you can get by with improvised shelters if you know how to build them and have supplies" - the mobiks will not know how. "get by" wasn't meant as "living in the field", it's surviving long enough for your SOS stamped in the snow to be seen by search and rescue aircraft. And yes, feet need to be warmed in the improvised shelter(s). Back to your comments about IR, fire is best. So we are overall in agreement. Lots of frostbite and hypothermia on the way.

Every time they take a breath they face the ongoing boa constrictor of sanctions, the destruction of decades of accumulated war materiel, destruction of essentially all of the trained / experienced military-aged male resources, the destruction and dispersal of their cadre, internal political tension, dissention in the republics at the edge of the Russian federation, ongoing grotesque levels of corruption (e.g., the 1.5M winter uniforms soon to be found on eBay), etc. Regarding taking into account mistakes, they learn operationally, but slowly (e.g., the slow dispersal of munitions depots once HIMARS started working). The RA and their society is not built to be a learning organization. Time is against Russia.

I believe article 9 is: "‘all appropriate legal, administrative and other measures, including the imposition of penal sanctions, to prevent and suppress any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Convention undertaken by persons or on territory under its jurisdiction or control’" That is a masterclass in weasel words, essentially turning the Ottawa treaty into a virtue-signaling exercise; and apparently there are more AP landmines in the soil today than before the treaty, so the effect of it is at best limited. I think the US position on the whole things has merit. From Wikipedia: "the position of the United States is that the inhumane nature of landmines stems not from whether they are anti-personnel as opposed to antivehicle but from their persistence. The United States has unilaterally committed to never using persistent landmines of any kind, whether anti-personnel or anti-vehicle, which they say is a more comprehensive humanitarian measure than the Ottawa Convention. All US landmines now self-destruct in two days or less, in most cases four hours. While the self-destruct mechanism has never failed in more than 65,000 random tests, if self-destruct were to fail the mine will self-deactivate because its battery will run down in two weeks or less. That compares with persistent anti-vehicle mines which remain lethal for about 30 years and are legal under the Ottawa Convention." I don't know about Ukranian winters; but from survival training in Canadian winters (and not on unusually cold days) you can get by with improvised shelters if you know how to build them and have supplies (including snow) around. If not, you need fire, as you stated. Maybe they wanted to learn how to sing. At least this way they get to die heroically.

That is the most important part; once momentum builds in the right direction the change of opinion is no longer linear in time and will explode exponentially. The loss of Lyman counters / neutralizes the Putin / Russian narrative they attempted through annexation and will accelerate the reduction in war support. Near-term future losses - Kherson pocket? - will, I think, seal the deal. Then it's rebellion in multiple layers of Russian society. Ritter: multi-time sex offender and now sock puppet / asset for Russia. "These leaders [Putin's position where he is an authoritarian but not absolute leader], Goemans found, would be tempted to “gamble for resurrection,” to continue prosecuting the war, often at greater and greater intensity, because anything short of victory could mean their own exile or death." A comfortable exile in China is the best possible outcome now, as so many other doors have been closed. Based on Putin's ego and Goemans' research, I don't think he'll take it. So things will grind on.

"A deep dive into risks for undersea pipes" https://nationalpost.com/news/world/explainer-a-deep-dive-into-risks-for-undersea-pipes

Wonderful to hear, too many Americans take Canada for granted. And conversely, many Canadians are foolishly afraid of our American cousins; some of my acquaintances worry that the US could get bored and invade Toronto, to which I reply "what are you on, crack? The poutine is in Montreal!" The UA likes Canadians too. They are building igloos in homage : Was it "crazy batsh**" as in the twitter link, or just a "rant", or was it full-on hitler-in-a-bunker nuts? I say "rant" designed to send a number of signals, mostly directed at sustaining support from his people (e.g., the cultural stuff about LGBTQ, enumeration of myths and legends about an ancient and imaginary West, etc.) to reinforce their 'common enemy'. He's still rational and still, to pattern, escalating. Contrast that to the measured, but very, very direct messaging from Zelensky: And of course, to directly blunt Putin's speech, the application to NATO.

Great article, saved. Goemans seems well-grounded and informed, and if a lot of what he says is common sense ("These leaders [e.g., people in Putins' position], Goemans found, would be tempted to “gamble for resurrection,” to continue prosecuting the war, often at greater and greater intensity, because anything short of victory could mean their own exile or death.") then often common sense needs to be researched to have credibility with decision makers. And this is why this war and our response is so important: “This will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesn’t get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward. If Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward.” And that is why Sun-Tzu said to never leave your opponent with fighting as the only option. Putin must have read Sun-Tzu as well as having personal experience with rats. The end of civilization is a one-way street: it is almost certain that we don't get a second chance (essentially because all of the easy energy is gone - no more crude oil bubbling from the ground, or coal that you can dig without deep mine shafts, etc.). So on top of the obvious-but-distant (not directly comprehensible) human cost, it's human extinction. And that's a bad thing. It may even explain the great filter. I don't know about NATO, but the West makes threats - as opposed to stating facts - routinely. Recent example: Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against the Government of Syria to Respond to Use of Chemical Weapons - Wikipedia - there are others, I'm not picking on any specific president. What does all this add up to? Putin needs a way out. He can't win and he can't lose. We can't count on an assassination or health crisis, too uncertain. So offer comfortable exile with enough perceived power (over the grounds, the household, for example) - free from threat by the ICC. I hope that this is happening behind the scenes right now.

And as others have suggested, mobik's don't need to be in the front-line meat grinder to help the RA. They just need to free-up experienced soldiers to go to the front line:

This is the effect of mobilization on the populace:

As someone else pointed out, submarines are a lot stealthier than surface ships - and if we find one, then what? Do we sink it? What if, when it is attacked, it retaliates? Thanks for the clarification - I misread the intent of your post. And, agreeing with you, if 300kg of high explosives were 'easy to source', there would be a lot more violence in the world than there is now. Every instance of that quantity of explosives, that I am aware of, in a 'modern' or first-world country is home-made fertilizer bombs (I think these are "low explosives"). I never thought of that. It would leave obvious traces not requiring Horatio Cane to point back to source - but Russia could be beyond caring, and it could not be stopped by any blockade. Good grief. Some idiots with too much tannerite and low morals.

On the first, please review the link under my original post re: 100kg. It's based on seismic readouts. On the next, it's the difference between someone waking around like they're about to punch someone, and actually punching someone. The first may possibly be discounted, it's just a threat about intent; the second may not be discounted, it's a demonstration of intent, capability and will. Anyway, I think it's Russia and will reserve final judgement until various agencies confirm.

All true. Even the Romans didn't kill every Carthaginian (Scipio agreed to take prisoners on the last day of street fighting). I just blocked Kraze a long time ago; the responses to his rants let them leak out.

A couple of guys with specialized scuba gear and significant experience, specifically "deep dive". "some" explosives looks like 100kg per boom. Explosives are controlled goods in every country; stealing 220 pounds or more isn't smuggling out a stick of TNT in your pocket. So I'm not buying the "private actor" argument, it's too unlikely. Russia has been found mapping underwater communications cables as early as 2015; could use the same capabilities on underwater gas pipes; is clearly unconcerned with Interntional condemnation / sanctions of any kind; and may have just sent a clear message about what it can do if it wants to. It's possible that this wasn't done by Russia, just very unlikely.

Every land pipeline, even the buried ones, have above-ground facilities to re-pressurize the flow aka "compressor stations". So just lean across the fence and flip a switch - or more likely go to your terminal and shut the flow off with a mouse click. With high enough pressure there can be much more distance between stations, but while I haven't checked the path and distance through Ukraine of the pipelines in question, most likely there is a station in their borders. Or just dig down a bit and cut the pipe. Carefully

If so, he would be on a plane to Beijing for a permanent vacation. You may dislike Fox's politics; many or most (I haven't counted) of the commentators are maniacs (Tucker C?); the headlines are florid and the editorials as slanted as in any 'news' organization, but the straight reporting is sound. Ukraine | Fox News - ignore the talking-head / commentator videos and enjoy the rest. Compare the Fox headline - "Putin expected to seize parts of Ukraine as 'sham' referendums end today" to the Reuter's headline: "Over 96% said to favour joining Russia in first vote results from occupied Ukraine regions" - although I will say that Reuters appears to have caught up and is now using "sham" to describe the referenda.

"never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." In other words, it is unlikely that Putin intended surgeons, IT specialists, and highly skilled integrated circuit designers to be chewed up on the front line - there is simply no reason to do that, and every reason not to. He just started a process that could not competently, or in a controlled manner, be carried out the way things are governed in Russia. The thugs who are implementing mobilization can't tell, and don't care about, the difference between a Buryat farm worker and an urban surgeon. Quota filled, on to the next batch.

Headlines matter, but in the first paragraph of the article "...after five days of voting in so-called referendums that Kyiv and the West denounced as a sham." Few news organizations can afford investigative reporting, and none are able to do so in the occupied areas, so they report the News, which is dueling press releases, which is better than raving and prejudiced editorials. Having said all of that, the headline is a bit one-sided.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ Chicken

As I said, he violated his oaths - which makes him a traitor by any definition. He could have chosen instead to be a whistle blower, but didn't. So yes, most neutral observers now agree that he was a Russian asset - he certainly is now. I think he was communicating. Today is also the day that Poland and Norway are connected by pipeline - so he's saying "look, I can blow up your new pipeline" without actually doing it. Poland and Norway open 'milestone' trans-Baltic gas pipeline (msn.com)

Overall, not singling out a specific country, the EU is the world's 2nd-largest economy and could be doing more. Should, based on geographic proximity and imminent threat. Since I can remember most NATO countries have ridden the US taxpayer's back (including, I'm sorry to say, Canada). Every president spoke on this, Trump raised it (rudely and erratically, but with some effect) to a new level, and with the Russo-Ukraine war we're seeing significant new commitments across the board. Actual dollars flowing, and effective dollars, is another matter, but I think there will be an improvement. Snowden is an interesting case, and divisive. There were many positives from his info-dump - such as the revealing and shuttering of some programs that should not have existed and the general increase of interest in encryption as a norm - and many negatives, all well documented. I'm not sure where the net benefit lies. I am sure that he violated his oaths and could have been a whistle-blower without all of the negatives. And yes, it would be amusing to see him captured by Ukraine forces. It would highlight the chaotic nature of the mobilization.

Apropos of a lazy Sunday afternoon, some (many) pages ago there was considerable debate about "signmyrocket.com". Mine came through a few minutes ago:

Best advice ever. Pay attention to at least the _first_ part of your marriage, Huba! And while we don't know each other, if we did I'd shake your hand to welcome you to the club. It's not as bad as some other members say