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Post 2 led us to this link with this text from ISW: "Russian forces attacking on the scale and along the axes of advance laid out in the reported plan would nevertheless likely achieve their military objectives of destroying the Ukrainian military’s ability to continue fighting and encircling major Ukrainian cities ... the outcome of the initial fighting itself is not in doubt." Like so many predictions, it hasn't aged well.

As a for example, often used as a differentiator, Western ground forces teach NCO-level initiative. But initiative is baked into Western cultures, so if one tries to teach Russian NCO's initiative, it is likely to fail and would certainly do so systemically. So the RA and its weak NCO corp may actually be a reasonable adaptation to their culture. 1) I may pick it up, but if 'it shows', not sure how objective it would be. 2) When the withdrawal happened, elements of the US political class denigrated the Afghan army, trying to shift blame - but up to 92000 of them died fighting, there was no systemic lack of courage or determination. 3) I don't doubt that the tribal culture of Afghanistan is a key reason that Western ideas failed to take hold (although the main reason the Taliban 'won' is support from neighbouring countries) - as Steve put it, they don't want what we were selling - but the main reason the Afghan army lost, aside from the abrupt abandonment by their key and necessary ally, was graft and corruption. Firing straight up (as at an Afghan wedding etc.) is relatively safe (although clearly not an ideal situation), the bullet returns no faster than if it was simply dropped from a plane, and typically base-first. You're welcome to get a copy of Hatcher's Notebook to confirm. Firing at an angle, as in trying to shoot down a drone, that's dangerous, the bullet will have lethal velocity for up to five or six miles.

You noted "Foundation", where this was very well described - as I recall the late-era Imperial atomic 'technicians' formed something of a religious cult around maintenance of the star ship engines. But the word I think we are searching for is ancient, defined by the Greeks: barbarian. From the immortal Monty Python troop: Reggie: All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us? Xerxes: Brought peace? Reggie: Oh, peace? SHUT UP! I think the modern way to approach this is to look back at the Westphalian accords. The "Responsibility to protect", especially Pillar III, is a recipe for endless, violent insurgency when applied to cultures that will not give up ... their culture, whether or not others see it as a legitimate culture. That still leaves plenty of room for humanitarian aid, it just shuts out forcibly imposing governments / cultures. In other words, don't fight the resistance movement. Let it do what it wants if and only if it stays within its own borders. A side effect of the culture. It's a kleptocracy, with a strong-man focus (Tsarist). The strong man needs to look strong - hence the T-14.

But is it? The fabled - and fun to shoot at long range - .50 BMG isn't itself .50 cal (.500 of an inch). The bullet is .510" in diameter; the ".50" comes from the land-to-land diameter of the barrel. Okay, so if the 12.7x108 bullet is the same as the .50BMG (12.7x99) then we can still call it, colloquially, a "fifty" - but it isn't the same. The bullet is .511" diameter, which, if stuffed into a .50BMG case would cause serious overpressure and likely barrel / breach failure immediately or soon. Is there a cartridge with a bullet that is actually .500"? Yes - at least the .500 S&W Magnum and .50AE, both pistol cartridges.

Speaking of a "war of systems", we often talk about Russian culture and its follow-on effects on their military culture. I'm fine with a martial element to early childhood education. It can build respect for the people who keep the rest of us free and may help enrollment in professional armies later in life. I do, however, draw the line at grenade launchers in Kindergarten: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/russian-army-vet-shows-off-ak-47s-and-grenade-launchers-to-kindergarten-class

The 'devolution' of the thread is partly inevitable, as net-new news (vs. more pictures of HIMARS) that can be thoughtfully analyzed dries up. This is a combination of better OPSEC all around, less movement of the front line, and overall 'groundhog day' syndrome. The last well-analyzed net-new event was the Kersch bridge attack. On top of that, everyone likes to identify with a winner, and much like in high school football games one's emotional state is amplified by cheerleading. By far the most popular post I have done, "winning" the day with likes, was the long Putin table photoshopped as partly collapsed (Kersch bridge analogue). Posts where I spend some time and try to add something useful - not nearly as popular. Others see the same effects and end up posting memes etc. Avoiding group-think / echo-chamber is a long-standing problem in business. "lateral thinking", "paradigm shift", "six hats" - all attempts to breakout of the assumed box. None have been terribly successful, but I find deliberate "lessons learned" exercises to be helpful, as the facilitator deliberately leads identification and assessment / ranking / actioning of "what went less well" (I avoid negative words like 'failed'). Not sure how to do that on a forum, except to encourage the occasional red-team / emperor has no clothes remark. Harking back to the "Remember you are mortal" role in ancient Rome, or the court jester's privilege in medieval times. Volunteers? So the mobiks have had at least partial success in plugging lines and reducing effectiveness of 'dagger' attacks. At least I think so. And if the human cost is terrible, how does that affect the goals of Russian leadership? Short-term, not at all. Longer term, it puts more levers into the fracture lines of their society and power structures. The Ukraine side we can only do educated guesses at. If we assume that infantry losses have some correlation to equipment losses, the Oryx site provides some indications about how the UA infantry is doing. Reducing the pace of (land) advance implies either slackened fighting or increased attrition. I think the latter, based on continued loss rates. For example, the Russian army has, incredibly, lost about 400 tanks in the last six weeks.

Looks like a scared child hiding behind its parent. Of course, I'd build the barge bridge there too - because if I was the barge bridge... I'd be scared. Seems to me that a few more rounds where there are already holes in the overlaying bridge would do the job.

Shaping the battlefield:

Pressing family into service, Finland on the front lines: https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/10/russian-dual-citizenship-detained-flying-drone-svalbard

'Merica. Caution: not for the faint of ear and do not turn the sound on at work.

Finland thinks a wall (mostly fencing) will help. I wonder if they are anticipating a flood of refugees from a collapsing Russian Federation:

All is not lost:

Lots of sanctionable components.

In the early 2000's I worked with a guy who had come to Canada, with his parents, in his mid-teens. The family emigrated because his father had hit the Jewish ceiling in his career in Russia about the time a window of opportunity opened for emigration (later slamming shut). One of his oft-repeated stories about being a young man was about two police officers dragging him and a friend into a warehouse and beating both of them - because they had lipped-off at the police as rowdy teens might do anywhere. Canada had been good to my co-worker, who had risen to a Director position at a large company, and to his immediate and extended family. He thought Putin was 'a great man' and often went on about how "... in Russia..." things would be done differently (in business). Go figure. I have no insight as to why this is the case but wanted to note that the phenomenon is not isolated to Israel.

That wasn't so hard, was it? Part of the reluctance for several people was the assumption that Russia always lies - and they said it was a truck bomb. It's more helpful to think of their statements as Bull**** in the academic sense. Statements that, while they may be true or false, are made without regard for truth but instead with an intended effect. Regards why truck bomb vs. rail car, it's possible that this was a matter of various irons in the fire and opportunity. Or it communicates that no-one in Russia is safe, regardless of whether or not they live by a rail line And there's no reason to suspect a suicide bomber. While it is possible, as sross112 says, that Ukraine could generate such, many suicide bombers are caught because of stress behaviours pre-detonation. Hard enough to get a truck bomb setup in Russia without adding that layer. GPS-triggered detonation would be more reliable and precise in any event.

If Major Myka Tyry's assessment on the amount of explosives is accurate, score one for team truck. Since he and I do not exchange Christmas cards, I have no direct knowledge of his credibility but what he's said does make some sense.

Drone evolution has an analogue in WWI aircraft - at first for observation, then dropping - by hand - bombs, then air-to-air fighting. Where this will diverge is the need for the WWI aircraft to return home with their crew. Regarding shotguns, too much recoil. Besides, why not kill it with fire?

As telling, after they chat with the female factory worker, there is no Western handshake / grip-and-grin / thank you for your hard work, the people inspecting just turn their backs on her and carry on talking. Culture. And the guy operating the high-tech laser cutter isn't wearing safety glasses in spite of sparks flying.

That is a remarkable speech. Borrell is trying to shock everyone, with blunt statements, into having an adult discussion. I hope it works. Contrast Borrell's speech with last year's, somewhat self-congratulatory and focussed mostly on non-existential issues: Address by President Charles Michel to the annual EU Ambassadors’ conference - Consilium (europa.eu) I don't know how, but somehow Borrell's positions need to become entrenched.

And a funny from DarthPutin:

For those still thinking about Nuke, apparently Colin Powell did so during the Gulf War and was appalled by the number of tactical nukes required to be effective. So anything by Putin is likely to be symbolic.

Behind a beatable paywall: https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/10/11/how-the-west-is-helping-ukraine-beat-russias-missiles

And now for some Russo-Ukraine war humour. How not to carry your stolen macbook: 2022 Darwin Award: Steel Macbook Armor (darwinawards.com)

For some insight into what motivates him, this apparently candid interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvGnw1sHh9M But yeah, he needs to learn when to shut up. The SEC agreed with this some time ago. Being a remarkable businessman doesn't necessarily qualify people for other domains, any more than does being an actor (Schwarzenegger aside ). Musk has gone from early hero to mid-stage zero - we'll see what happens next. I have often described Europe's institutions as "sclerotic" (no offense to our European posters, it's not about you, and the rest of the Western world has its own, similar, issues). One positive effect of the Russo-Ukraine war's shock treatment is to clean out the pipes to a large degree, and I think this will last for a generation. To all of our benefit.