panzermartin
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Posts posted by panzermartin
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
The history develops by spiral %) Avdiivka-Chasiv Yar is "Russian Somme" ?
Yes, who would have thought after 100 years , masses of infantry with gas masks , trenches, absent tanks and massive artillery. And godamn Rats!
The only good thing out of this that hopefully the new CM will be infantry heavy and more focused In these tactics. No more all seeing killer tanks and APCs.
All bow to the weary infantryman.
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So after WW1, we will now see again photos of men in gas masks in trenches. Are we really moving forward
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44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Hard sitauation we have also in Krasnohorivka town north to occupied Maryinka. Several days ago Russians could break through of our rare artilery fire and drones and despite some losses in vehicles landed infantry in southern and south-eastern part of the town. Russians seized railway station area - this is area of dachas and private cottages, also Russian infantry was too few to continue advance. But we also had few infantry to clear this territory. Russians became to use their usual tactic of gradual forces accumulation in captured area for new further burst. Reportedly yesterday UKR troops again threw out Russians from SE part of Krasnohotivka and partially from southern part, recapturing railway stattion. But today Russians again slightly advanced in southern part of the town. BTW southern part is the contested area, because there too hard hold the ground for both sides. Main stronghold of UKR trrops (by Russian opinion) is a local fireproof structures plant, which Russian aviation "processes" with 500 kg and 1500 kg KABs.
So the Russians keep pushing despite losses.
Some questions.
Have they really calculated they can take every small Ukrainian settlement in slow fashion while taking losses of precious equipment, even from hits in their airports well behind lines? Could they win the ground war and lose in the big picture in the end. Or they have certain city goals like Kharkiv and Kramatorsk - Slaviansk that think will bring a domino blow in the UKR political/military structure.
Where are the precious toys Ukraine has received from the West. I see some scattered Bradleys here and there but no news about Leopards, M1s, Challengers etc. Artillery systems are also not much visible anymore.
Is Ukraine holding them for a bigger counter operation, or they have suffered heavier losses than actually reported.
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
Depends on the aerosol. If it is just plain old smoke…not really. Even cheap commercial drones can have multi-spectral cameras onboard, let alone the higher end stuff. If it is treated smoke, which is harder to make and more expensive, it could give IR protection.
Problem with drones/FPVs is that they can fly under that layer unless they basically do it at ground level.
I suspect the main problem for Russians are the myriad simple FPV drones that Ukraine is using. These rely on plain cameras mainly. Smoke can make them less effective at some percent. Guess that would be small. They seem to be producing the smoke on ground level.
I think it could be more effective perhaps with real time satellite intelligence the UA is getting from the West. But I have no accurate idea how "real time" it is in a moving battlefield.
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56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Is it better than doing nothing? Sure. Does it complicate drone usage? Sure. But that's all it does even under the best circumstances. All standard smoke problems apply here as they do anywhere else throughout military history.
Here's why I don't think this will effectively change the outcome:
- Ukraine is incredibly windy. Smoke doesn't work well in wind. Even if the wind is fairly mild, or in a favorable direction, air still moves around and that breaks up smoke consistency. The further out from the generators you go, the more that smoke is dissipated even under the best of circumstances.
- Smoke is difficult to work with at any scale. The bigger the scale, the more difficult it is to work with. In particular the length of time for it to be maintained. Therefore, this will be (at most) a limited capability for one small section of front at a time.
- You can see even in this propaganda video that smoke isn't very effective. I can see individual buildings, streets, and other things needed to navigate and that's on a tiny pixelated X video. Trained drone operators should be able to navigate pretty easily even with non-thermal drones.
- Thermal drones will not be affected by this tactic. Even if they use thermal masking smoke, that only works when it is dense. There's just no way they can keep up that sort of density across the whole battlefield. And the further out from the generators, the more difficult it will be to have smoke be dense.
- Advance routes can be guessed at prior to any operation Russia might launch. All Ukraine has to do is keep a couple of good ISR drones watching those locations and then direct the FPVs to any spots showing activity as they already do. Even if the smoke causes some problems for the FPVs, if they are directed to a spot I think it's more than likely they'll be able to hit their targets.
And this presumes that Ukraine isn't able to interfere with the generators, which is silly
All Ukraine needs to do is wait for them to start producing smoke and they are sitting ducks because by definition they can't move once they start laying down smoke. It's really not difficult to locate them since they have a very, very, very obvious signature. Send in an ISR drone, see where the smoke starts, then hit them with FPVs and/or artillery. Problem solved.
So... I think this is just more Russian copium. It won't do much of anything even under the best circumstances, but even then it won't last long because they should be pretty easily knocked out.
Steve
6. I hope they have good graphics card BTW otherwise the offensive might stall
I agree overall. Looks like it's more psychological for own consumption.
Though I think the primary weapon of Ukraine are myriads of small market non IR FPV drones that may have some problems.
If I was serious as RU, I would also think of decoy smoke too. Not sure if they have the luxury though.
This kinda reminds me of the rather unsussesful zukkov's use of searchligts in the battle of seelow heights.
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Not sure if this pro russian account is trustworthy but this looks like preparation for RU wide scale offensive.
Could this be actually effective against drones, I wonder.
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First Tu-22 kill? Pilots reportedly bailed out.
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16 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:
This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.
Who knew, motorcycles (and sidecars) would finally make it in CM BS2 as an assault element
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Deleted, no need to feed more off topic matters
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I "hope" this thread stays titled how hot Ukraine's gonna get, in the near future.
There are clear axises colliding in an expanding battlefront and nothing will surprise us anymore. Especially since we witnessed something us unimaginable as Russia storming a European capital. Everything is connected in a way or another. There is Russian presence in Syria, and there are Iranian drones in Kiev.
But yes, for now makes sense to keep this thread clear off other conflicts. Like we wouldn't discuss WW2 North Africa and European theatre in the same thread.
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Scores of ballistic missiles penetrated US/Israel's defense, some hit negev F35 airbase
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10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
that is going to run out first is Ukrainian frontline infantry strength
Ukraine had the finest most battle hardened and motivated infantrymen West could hope to employ imo. It is still unknown the losses they suffered in the large counter offensive.
Unfortunately many were lost too in lengthy sieges like Bahmut, Mariupol and Avdeevka and keep suffering losses under Glide bombs and artillery.
These troops would rather die than succumb to Russia's plans, and hated them with a passion.
That's the no1 adversary Russia had to defeat. After that, what kind of infantry will fight against them in eastern Europe ? Polish conscripts or French legionnaires?
The dramatic surge in FPV drone use might be an indication how Ukraine plans to counter a possible a frontline manpower issue. They are in cases more effective/deadly than a whole platoon of infantry but can they really replace infantry?
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Behind paywall, but the sum is that we slowly see official evidence surfacing of the role China is playing to keep Russia in the fight.
The hypothesis that somehow they will be backtracking afraid of business disruption with the West was false.
China is an almost unlimited X factor imo, both in resources, production capacity and levels of involvement.
This makes the Ukraine war a lot more complicated.
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8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
It probably would be if Greece was invaded by a power hostile to NATO. And you would probably be OK with it if they were part of the reason your country wasn't completely overrun.
Context is everything.
Life is full of cause and effect. Russia caused a war, the effect is right wing extremists are tolerated out of desperation.
Since 2014 right wing extremists have been fighting for and against Russia. Many of them foreigners to both countries, but aligned ideologically.
It is strange to see right wing Westerners fighting right wing Easterners when the fact is both groups are ideologically identical in most respects.
Steve
Agreed
Yeah it's puzzling they fight each other, since they are both white and believe in white supremacy and are probably fans of Nazi Germany too but these are groups that never went too deep with their reasoning I guess.
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22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Where have you been for the past 3369 pages? This isn't news. It wasn't news back in 2014 when Russian trolls were amplifying Right Sector and Azov extremists.
So yes, it is a lie. A huge one. All countries, including Greece, have some significant problems with right wing extremists because Humanity seems genetically predetermined to keep producing them.
I ask you... if Turkey pointed to the Golden Dawn and invaded Greece right now to denazify it, would you consider that be "a total lie"? Because I sure as F would.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dawn_(Greece)
Steve
It has happened before with Cyprus in 1974 where Turkey blamed the right wingers for harassing turkish Cypriots and invaded Donbas style. Of course it was just the pretext...But somehow international community had to accept it. Now it's history...
Of course many countries have problems with neo nazists. We almost reached a point where GD had a significant 7-8 %presence in the parliament and in the streets. Not proud of it. That was during the deep social and economic crisis where usually extreme elements come out and manipulate the anger/desperation of the people.
The difference here is that Greek Golden dawn isn't trained and armed by western funds and weapons and embedded in the armed forces. They don't have a paramilitary division in some aegean island. They are all currently in jail serving a 10+ sentence for criminal organization charges. I can't guess what will happen in a war crisis but that's the way it is now.
That being said , I understand where your comment is coming from. I didn't mean to imply this alone could justify invading a country. My denazification remark bordered a little on sarcasm.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-the-ukraine-war/
So the denazification is not a total lie after all but it is known that war attracts the most primitive/far right elements from both sides. Probably serves each side's government well if the extremists elements eliminate each other.
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Imagine eventually Russia moving the factories further east to the Urals like in WW2. And yet a drone or two will still be able to find them...
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With no intention to play advocate of sfhand, we have been many times wrong here about the "truth".
I remember the board being very trigger happy with Iraq 2003 for instance. To their defense they admitted later that G Bush administration was at wrong.
But we can't undo what happened now. Iraq for me was a pivotal war for the West. This is where the game of post cold war US playing the freedom/democracy bringer reached a dead end. Because of the lies, the bypassing of UN, the Bush cynical rhetoric, the scores of civilian casualties, the failed occupation /reform etc. ISIS was born out of this war, the refugee crisis ignited. Despite the quick win over Saddam, US reputation was seriously damaged there.
Imo Putin invasion wouldn't happen without US being so damaged in international reputation as a Democracy guarantee power. 2014 and green men wouldn't happen too. I dare to say even Trump wouldn't happen. US just lost focus and steam, started questioning itself, started polarizing etc.
The truth then was that Iraq was a threat to the World with WMDs and Saddam was an evil dictator (which he was). The war ended Saddam but opened a whole new can of worms and a crack in the western camp that widened with a lengthy and fruitless Afghan campaign.
Our truth now is that Russia is a military threat to the world, a threat to global democracy and our duty is to smash them to pieces before worse things occur. Maybe that's the right truth but I'm not convinced of the outcome of the path we have taken. I believe what we have in the West as spiritual descendants of Athenian democracy, European rennaisance, French revolution, American revolution etx, is precious and must be protected. If this escalating war ends up destroying all this, then this isn't the right war for us.
And beneath this war on the surface, there are deeper issues threatening our societies. For me rampant capitalism, privitization of health and natural resources, outsourcing everything to the East, cultural decay and the widening gap between rich and poor will be more decisive in people not believing or not joining the fight in a possible World War. Talking to everyday people not necessarily well informed about the war, there is a big percentage that secretly wishes Russia will win, not because they like a dictatorship but because they feel that this will deal a blow to a decaying neo colonial system that slowly suffocates their existence. They could be deadly wrong of course. But If you can't convince your own people that this is a system worth defending for, then it's already a lost cause.
Sometimes celebrating the small Ukrainian victories, the destruction of a spy plane, or sinking a warship seems so insignificant in the greater picture of events that could come. Russia has convinced its people that "evil West is stretching its dirty colonial hand to grab their vast resources" like they did a few times in the past. The more we get involved the more Russians are convinced this is another great patriotic war. For some this is a dead end against a stubborn nuclear power. For others, like most here in the forum, a frontal attack is the only way for West as we know it to survive.
This could be the only truth worth debating maybe.
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
I can't recall either Kh-101 hit something in the darkness or not. But realy mosty of strikes on Kyiv with these missiles were on the dawn
Interesting.That's sort of a primitive yet smart system that is practically EW proof I guess.
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8 hours ago, cesmonkey said:
How to take out the Kerch bridge?
Covertly hijack a nearby Russian ship?
Wait, you mean that bridge wasn't russian made?
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16 minutes ago, JonS said:
Asymmetric economic warfare? Cheap missiles shot down by expensive interceptors = win. Any actual damage on the ground is a bonus?
If Ukrainians spend 2-4 expensive missiles per hit, probably yes. I have no idea what is the ratio. I wouldn't call these missiles cheap though. Except the Shaheds probably.
10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:I don't think Kh-101, Iskander, Kinzhal and now Zirkon are cheap. Add here wasting of resources of Tu-95, fuel for them, etc. Attack on Kyiv about week ago, when 30 missiles were shot down cost Russia 390 millions USD with around zero effect. Yes, we spent 4 PAC-3 interceprors and about three dozens of NASAMs/IRIS, but I doubt it equal to Russian attacking means cost and completely can't be comparable with economical and military losses if all these missiles hit own targets.
Could truth lie in the middle? Maybe Russians get more hits than Ukrainian mods says.
Or the Russians are reporting to their superiors that the strikes are mostly successful and they dully repeat every day and no one dares to object.
Though they do seem to respect and invest effort in countering AD, with decoys, misleading paths, flares fitted to missiles etc...
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11 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Whether this is their intention or not, they do it like in WW2: One thing that the bombing campaigns were effective at was keeping the Luftwaffe busy defending the cities instead of contesting the frontlines. Ukraine has to commit Patriots et al. defending the cities instead of shooting down Russian aviation near the front.
Yes that could make sense.
Especially paired with the fact that before the re-surge of Kiev bombings a lot of Su 34s were lost, apparently to Patriots moved closer to the Frontline.
Now the pressure is back on the capital.
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The video of Shaman's song seems like recorded one afternoon with a smartphone.
The melody, could be one generic already orchestrated DAW file sitting in his hard disk.
Lyrics are nothing special.
Yes this can come out in day if you are driven and focused (or Kremlin funded!)
But Alternatively he could go for a more bootleg live and unplugged version for authenticity (and conspiracytheoristproof)
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Some things I wonder about.
If the russian raids are that bad and 95% of missiles are intercepted why Russia keeps targeting Kiev and wasting valuable ordnance that could be used on the battlefield for instance.
They estimate that they will expend and reach the breaking point of Ukrainian AD at some calculated point?
Why they have allowed after years so many working AD batteries. Patriots are static on defense, they are large systems that can be spotted and tracked. They have numerous spies on the ground. Why one morning not launch a massive strike exclusively on two batteries for instance.
Lastly, Is it unrealistic to employ high flying Tupolevs with glide bombs against AA batteries?
All Ukraine needs to do is wait for them to start producing smoke and they are sitting ducks because by definition they can't move once they start laying down smoke. It's really not difficult to locate them since they have a very, very, very obvious signature. Send in an ISR drone, see where the smoke starts, then hit them with FPVs and/or artillery. Problem solved.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
More about smoking. This video says this thing can produce a ton of it for hours. Probablly thermal blocking as well. But what a nice sitting target indeed who ironically can't hide itself.