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President Hosni Mubarak steps down?


toxic.zen

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The phone's been ringing hot today with media wanting to talk about Libya. Sadly it had to take the NZ quake to bump it off the agenda.

I'm not so sure that Gadaffi will be ousted, at least without a bloodbath. If he does go, I think it will be more likely that a key defence force strongman will step in to take his own chance. But Gadaffi has been pretty active over the decades in purging anyone in the military with an ounce of ambition.

I guess that is how you stay alive in the dictator business...

On the quake, hope everyone there is ok.

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I don't think the truth will ever be known, short of interviewing everyone in Libya and cross referencing. Libya is very much like the system in East Germany or 1984: everyone is informing on everyone else and there is a big devolution of accountability down to the local street/neighborhood committees. There are umpteen different security agencies dealing with internal and external security and nobody knows who to trust. The numbers of people who disappear through this system are anyone's guess.

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The worst thing ever was the mercenaries from the Sudan (the one Emrys always fondly speaks about). Gheddafi saw betrayal of part of the armed forces coming, and hired people not on the basis of military competence, but going with the fact they they shoot civvies routinely and will have no qualms in shooting a foreign population.

I tell ya, when I saw the rioters carrying the body of a lynched mercenary, I didn't feel any pity for him.

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You mean the Iran-contra trade thingy?

No, much further back. I forget the year—I think it was the early '50s, but at the moment I am too rushed to go look it up—the CIA assisted a coup that overthrew a democratically elected moderate socialist government and reinstated the Shah with his secret police and all the modern instruments of repression. Not to make too much of a case for the mullahs, who are probably nutjobs in their own right, but it's not hard to understand why they might carry a grudge against us.

Michael

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Just some background on Libya from HRW

Libya - Events of 2009

http://www.hrw.org/en/node/87729

Libya's international reintegration continued to move ahead despite the government's ongoing human rights violations. Driven by business interests and Libya's cooperation in combating terrorism and irregular migration, European governments and the United States strengthened ties with Libya during 2009.

On the domestic front, government control and repression of civil society remain the norm, despite some movement toward reform. The authorities continue to imprison individuals for criticizing the country's political system or its leader, Mu`ammar al-Gaddafi, and Libya maintains harsh restrictions on freedom of assembly and expression, including penal code provisions that criminalize "insulting public officials" or "opposing the ideology of the Revolution." Nevertheless, 2009 saw some space for criticism in the press, proposed reform of the penal code, and greater tolerance for public protest by victims' families seeking disclosure and redress for a 1996 prison massacre.

Political Prisoners

Libya continues to detain scores of individuals for engaging in peaceful political activity. Hundreds more have been "disappeared," some for decades. In 2009 the authorities freed a number of political prisoners, including, in March, Jamal al-Haji and Farag Hmeid, the last of a group of 14 prisoners arrested in 2007 for planning a peaceful demonstration to commemorate the anniversary of a violent crackdown on demonstrators in Benghazi (another of the 14, Abderrahman al-Qotaiwi, initially reported as "disappeared," was released apparently in 2008, but his release not initially disclosed). Many others remain detained, however, such as Abdelnasser Al-Rabbasi, serving a 15-year sentence imposed in 2003 for writing a novel about corruption and human rights.

Fathi al-Jahmi, Libya's most prominent political prisoner, died in a Jordanian hospital on May 20, 2009, age 69, after six-and-a-half years' imprisonment in Libya. In March 2004 Internal Security agents imprisoned al-Jahmi after he called for democratization and criticized al-Gaddafi, and in July 2007, suffering from diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease, he was transferred to the state-run Tripoli Medical Center, where he remained under Internal Security control and was not free to leave the hospital. Al-Jahmi was flown to Jordan 15 days before he died, having lapsed into a coma two days earlier.

Arbitrary Detention

By the General People's Committee (Ministry) for Justice's own reckoning, about 500 prisoners who have served their sentences or been acquitted by Libyan courts remain imprisoned under orders of the Internal Security Agency. The agency, under the jurisdiction of the General People's Committee for Public Security, controls two prisons, Ain Zara and Abu Salim, where it holds "security" detainees. It has refused to carry out judicial orders to free these prisoners, despite calls from the secretary of justice for their release.

The 1996 Abu Salim Prison Massacre

In December 2008, Libyan authorities started informing the families of the 1,200 prisoners killed on June 29, 1996, in Tripoli's Abu Salim prison of the death of their relatives, by issuing death certificates (without specifying the cause of death, in many cases). This followed the June and September 2008 decisions by the North Benghazi Court ordering the government to reveal the fate of those who had died. The Libyan authorities have offered compensation of 200,000 dinars (US$162,000) to families who agree to relinquish all legal claims, but most of the victims' families in Benghazi have refused to accept compensation on those terms and continue to call for disclosure of what occurred on the day of the killings and criminal accountability for those responsible. The authorities have not made public any account of the events or held anyone responsible. On September 6, 2009, the acting secretary of defense established a seven-judge investigation panel, headed by a former military tribunal judge, to conduct an investigation.

Freedom of Expression, Association, and Assembly

While there has been an opening for greater debate and discussion in the press, freedom of expression remains severely curtailed. Article 178 of the penal code carries penalties of up to life imprisonment for disseminating information considered to "tarnish [the country's] reputation or undermine confidence in it abroad." Negative comments about al-Gaddafi are frequently punished, and self-censorship is rife. Two private newspapers, Oea and Quryna, publish limited criticism of the Libyan authorities, but journalists say they face harassment for expressing any criticism. Lawsuits for defamation, which carries criminal sanctions in Libya, are common.

Libya has no independent NGOs, and Libyan laws severely restrict freedom of association. Law 71 bans any group activity opposing the ideology of the 1969 revolution, and the penal code imposes the death penalty on those who join such groups. The government has refused to allow independent journalists' and lawyers' organizations. The only organization able to criticize human rights violations publicly is the Human Rights Society of the Gaddafi Foundation, which is chaired by Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, the Libyan leader's son.

In a tightening of restrictions, on June 29, 2009, the General People's Committee issued a decision requiring anyone wishing to hold a meeting or seminar to obtain 30-day advance approval from a newly established government committee, and requiring the meeting organizers to provide a list of all participants and the issues to be discussed.

Demonstrations are also illegal in the country, but during 2009 a number of demonstrations by the families of victims of the Abu Salim prison killings took place in Benghazi, the biggest of which, involving over 100 demonstrators, was on June 29. The government, for the most part, has allowed the families to demonstrate, and the Libyan press at times has covered their activities and demands, but some of the organizers have faced harassment, intimidation, and in March, arrest from security officials. The families have also formed a committee to present their demands.

Violence against Women and Girls

On October 21, 2009, at least 10 women ages 18 to 27 who live in a state-run care residence for women and girls who were orphaned as children, organized a rare demonstration calling for an end to sexual harassment they said they had experienced in the residence. A journalist who covered the demonstration for Al Manara was immediately afterwards called in for questioning by local police, and a few days later by the General Prosecutor's Office. Libyan news website Libya al Youm reported that officials had threatened to expel those who demonstrated from the residence, and pressured them to retract their statements and to sue the journalist for defamation. On October 29, however, the General Prosecutor's Office opened an investigation into the claims and on October 31 charged the head of the residence with sexual harassment.

Treatment of Foreigners

Libya continues to abuse and mistreat non-Libyan migrants caught trying to leave the country by boat. In May 2009 Human Rights Watch interviewed migrants in Malta and Italy who had been detained at some point in Libya. All reported that Libyan authorities had mistreated them and subjected them to indefinite detention, often in inhuman and degrading conditions. Interviewees described how Libyan guards beat them with wood and metal sticks, and detained them in severely overcrowded and unsanitary conditions. They also spoke about police corruption and brutality and of migrants being dumped in the desert near Libya's land borders. When Human Rights Watch visited Libya in April 2009, officials refused access to any of its many migrant detention centers.

Libya has no asylum law, has not signed the 1951 Refugee Convention, and has no formal working agreement with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Fate of Returned Detainees

Libya continues to share intelligence on militant Islamists with Western governments, and the United States and United Kingdom continue to consider it a strategic partner in counterterrorism efforts. A number of those the US has returned or rendered to Libya over the past five years remain in detention after unfair trials, and Libyan authorities continue to detain Mohamed al-Rimi and Sofian Hamoodah, Libyan citizens whom the US government returned in 2006 and 2007 from detention in Guantanamo Bay. In April 2009 Human Rights Watch was able to confirm the detention of five former CIA secret detainees in Abu Salim prison.

In May, Ali Mohamed al-Fakheri (also known as Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi) was found dead in his cell in Abu Salim prison. The State Security Court had sentenced al-Libi to life imprisonment following his transfer to Libya in 2006 after the US had rendered him to Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt (where he was tortured). Human Rights Watch spoke with him briefly in prison on April 27, though he refused to be interviewed. Libyan newspaper Oea first reported al-Libi's death on May 10, saying he had committed suicide.

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No, much further back. I forget the year—I think it was the early '50s, but at the moment I am too rushed to go look it up—the CIA assisted a coup that overthrew a democratically elected moderate socialist government and reinstated the Shah with his secret police and all the modern instruments of repression. Not to make too much of a case for the mullahs, who are probably nutjobs in their own right, but it's not hard to understand why they might carry a grudge against us.

Michael

Mossadeq 1953. The USA felt he was getting a bit too commie. But yes, it basically set up the mother of all hypocrises.

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The muslim world has always been peculiar, but as I understand it, in the 50s there was much less conservatism and nutjobbery in religion, and I heard about old folks fondly remembering a youth when everybody's arse was less tight.

That socialist turn was maybe made in this atmosphere, and so positive.

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It doesn't matter why they might have got socialist, the climate of the time was reds under the bed and so they got rid of probably the best leader that Iran ever had. It's not so much a grudge that is the problem as a major credibility issue. The coup still today allows Iranian leaders like Amahdinejahd to say "Oh sure, they SAY they want to bring you democracy. But look what the USA has meant by that in the past. Another great idea from the country that brought you the Shah and SAVAK".

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It doesn't matter why they might have got socialist, the climate of the time was reds under the bed and so they got rid of probably the best leader that Iran ever had. It's not so much a grudge that is the problem as a major credibility issue. The coup still today allows Iranian leaders like Amahdinejahd to say "Oh sure, they SAY they want to bring you democracy. But look what the USA has meant by that in the past. Another great idea from the country that brought you the Shah and SAVAK".

This one, I could not agree more with...while I can understand and yes, support, US actions to help US causes..I cannot understand how when those actions go predictably wrong, America always has been able to say "huh? why?what happened? lol...and coming from an American, that is quite an admission..so my theory is yes..do what's best for our country, I would be angry if we did not do it...but don't come complaining when you get caught doing it and something bad happens, also.

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What you're saying is' date=' in the context of the Red Scare you can kinda understand what America did back then?[/quote']

Well, I am saying, a country SHOULD look out for its interests...just that when that goes wrong, they should not then complain about being "misunderstood" etc..

Also, my impression of the "Red Scare" is probably different since my immediate family suffered greatly from it, while to most Americans it was just a vague thing happening "over there.." and to most of today's people outside of Europe, it was just a vague thing that happened "back then.."

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You mean, sticking by what you did without denying the evidence?

MAN, that would be the indicator of great leaders. The thing with them, they always deny stuff when they get caught red handed. Instead, they should say: YES! I DID IT! But in everyone's best interest. Bring on the flak, but at least I have the guts!

Instead...

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You mean, sticking by what you did without denying the evidence?

MAN, that would be the indicator of great leaders. The thing with them, they always deny stuff when they get caught red handed. Instead, they should say: YES! I DID IT! But in everyone's best interest. Bring on the flak, but at least I have the guts!

Instead...

EXACTLY.. I would follow a leader who made mistakes, if he also acknowledged them, because who is really perfect? But it grates on me, to see the normal ones who are so ready to dodge the blame while grabbing any glory.

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