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The Ford Merlin


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Again your greater judgment, Mr. Emrys, forces me to realize the rashness of my typing. Respectfully I thank you for elucidating the relative implausibility of the strategic situation I inferred.

I concur that garrisoning the British Isles would have required only a fraction of the Feldheer, but I'm inclined to believe (and not only on account of Churchill's "we shall fight them on the beaches" rhetoric) that the British -- soldier and civilian alike -- would not let the Germans conquer them and their island without inflicting as many casualties and as much loss of equipment as they could. I'm inclined to think that the attempted conquering of Britain would break the portion of the Heer devoted to it.

So, if Seelöwe were to be seen through to a relative success (if not a Pyrrhic victory), the Heer would be proportionately weakened (along with the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine). But as you pointed out, Mr. Emrys, the Red Army, though large, was not in good enough shape to embark on a strategic campaign, at least not any time in 1941.

With England defeated and almost all the rest of Europe (suspiciously not including Switzerland) in German control, perhaps Operation Torch would have been launched sooner than it actually was, i.e., late 1941 or early 1942. (One of the surrender conditions agreed to by Britain might have been standing down of the Eighth(?) Army in North Africa, so that the Americans might have felt the need to come to their recently conquered ally's aid all the sooner.) The DAK would have to hold off the US Army as far east as Libya, perhaps, while it advanced deeper into Egypt to fulfill its original reason for being deployed in North Africa. As 1942 drew to a close and gave way to 1943, the USAAF would establish itself in Tunisia or Algeria. From there the potential 'branching' of the scenario varies, depending on how much territory Britain conceded to Germany (such as Malta and Gibraltar).

And while all this was going on, the Red Army may well have (as you inferred, Mr. Emrys), shall we say, lunged for and even captured the Rumanian oil fields. But because the Lend-Lease convoys to the USSR would have been lacking Royal Navy protection since mid 1941, they would have been hurting from lack of said Lend-Lease equipment and materiel. But I'm sure Churchill (and perhaps the royal family as well) would have long since escaped (aboard a Mosquito) to the US or maybe Canda via Iceland, so maybe the Wehrmacht would continue getting flak (as opposed to FlaK) from British and Commonwealth forces abroad.

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