Z-Plans & Brest-Litovsk

[JerseyJohn]

Brest-Litovsk Aftermath and Z Plans

Well, the time has come for me to start doing something with the editor. In the original SC I made a modest contribution with some scenarios that at least a few people enjoyed and will try to do the same now with it’s successor.

All thoughts and suggestions are welcome.

Brest-Litovsk Aftermath 1930:

As many of you know, in 1918 Germany had the opportunity to make peace with Britain and France on the condition that it withdraw from Belgium and France and agree to an adjustment of borders. France wanted the return of Alsace and Lorain but in return Imperial Germany would keep everything it had won in the east against Russia. This would have included all of Poland and vast stretches of Belorussia. Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and the Ukraine would have been recognized as German protectorates with the Ottoman Empire ceding it’s Middle East territories lost during the campaigns, but receiving the southern Caucasus.

Going on the assumption that the Austro-Hungarian Empire would have fallen apart as the war ended, I’m keeping the Central Europe and Balkan boundaries as they stand in Hubert’s basic campaign map.

The scenario would call for the creation of a new country: Ukrainia. I’d appreciate any suggestions on how to do this.

I’m also planning to create an island in the southern Atlantic near the British convoy arrows labeled, German West Africa that would serve as a naval and air base. It’s an abstraction, of course, but I want to add the colonial factor without expanding the map. Part of the peace package would have been to return some or all of the German African colonies.

With the war starting in 1930 and a possible end in 1940, all tech will be set at zero for the major countries with the highest research potential being USA-Germany-UK-France-Italy-USSR and chits assigned accordingly.

Germany, in this case, will still be Imperial. Russia will be the USSR – boundaries running N-S from Leningrad – Smolensk – Rostov – central Caucasus. Italy fascist.

Z-Plans:

Hitler, at various times and places, gave 1941-46 as the times when he’d be ready to launch his all out war.

The earliest date was given to Mussolini in 1939, and is one of the reasons Italy was so poorly prepared in 1939; the Italians thought they had another two years to get ready.

1942 and 44 were bandied about with the admiralty, the first date would have included four new Hindenburg class battleships (basically the Bismarck but incrementally larger to house 16” guns) and the second date would have included two large aircraft carriers.

The army and air force were also told that they’d be vastly expanded by 1942.

Most historians agree that the German economy couldn’t have supported the forces that Hitler promised, so I’ll add units to the production schedule instead along with an extra air fleet. Beyond that it will be Hubert’s basic 1939 FW campaign with tech changes. Germany will have increased tech in radar, rockets, naval gun radar and aircraft/long range. UK will have higher bomber and sonar tech along with increased radar. France will have higher intelligence. USSR heavy tanks higher and Italy will have better long range aircraft and improved infantry weapons. The United States, with the assumption that FDR does not get elected to a third term, will be unchanged.

-- I’m planning to have the first ready in January, meantime, any information and help people would care to offer will be appreciated.

[Edwin P.]

Interesting, would France have extended the maginot line along the Belgium border?

[JerseyJohn]

Edwin,

I think they'd certainly have done so in either scenario.

In the first Germany would have emerged from WWI as the most powerful nation in Europe, and in the second they'd have more time to prepare and, after the annexation of Slovakia in Spring '39 there would have been no doubt about not being able to trust Hitler's assurances of not seeking more territory.

My guess is the Maginot Line would have reached half-way to the Channel by '42, and the rest of the way by '44. Compensating for that would have been the development of German rockets as fortress busters, L=3 by 42 and L=4 by '44. Historically Germany built it's two giant railroad guns specifically for use against the Maginot Line, but in the game I think Rockets would make a good abstraction, but also would likely have been developed in their own right so they'd represent a combination of giant gun units and real long range rocket weapons.

As a consequence of putting it's defense spending into the Maginot, France would have the same army, navy and air force in the Z-plan scenarios that it has in Hubert's 39 Fall Weiss.

Britain would be slightly increased, a big change in it's navy to reflect the replacing of the old Queen Elizabeth type BBs with the KGV types.

-- These changes would be in varying degrees. I'm planning three Z-plan scenarios: one for 1942, another for 1944 and one for 1946.

Regarding the Brest-Litovsk Aftermath, this map gives a good idea of the eastern territories Imperial would have either occupied or controlled if it had made peace in 1918, instead of launching it's final Western Front offensive.

< Territory ceeded to Germany by USSR in 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk >

[Edwin P.]

It always amazes me that countries always go a step to far during war. McArthur during the Korean war comes to mind. He could have stopped north of the 38th Parallel but advanced to the border of China and lost all that he had gained; likewise Germany during WWI and Japan during WWII.

The war with Russia in your scenario will be most interesting. With Germany holding onto much of its territory will they be able to resist a new German onslaught or will they launch an early offensive before Germany is prepared.

[SeaMonkey]

Edwin, as it was in the beginning of BLaft in SC1, the Germans had very little chance to hold the eastern territories of USSR, especially in the south.

The garrisons were insufficient to blunt the beginning Red Army offensive and only later near the vicinity of Odessa could the Germans succeed in a forming up the defense.

[Lars]

Originally posted by Edwin P.:

It always amazes me that countries always go a step to far during war. McArthur during the Korean war comes to mind. He could have stopped north of the 38th Parallel but advanced to the border of China and lost all that he had gained; likewise Germany during WWI and Japan during WWII.

Er, his orders were to clear Korea. Fault lays higher up.

[John DiFool the 2nd]

Once the Germans repudiate the Washington Treaty,

Britain will go on ahead with the Vanguard and

Lion class BBs, and not the bowdlerized KGVs (or,

supressing gag reflex, the Nelsons).

Hubert needs to add in convoy surface raiders for

this to work well methinks, but it will still be

cool either way.

[John DiFool the 2nd]

Rereading OP: will there be TWO scenarios, one in

1930 and the other in 1942-44? :confused:

[JerseyJohn]

JohndF2,

The best way to answer that is to copy here what I've posted in the SC2 Forum:

Originally posted by JerseyJohn:

SeaMonkey,

Appreciated, I'll do my best to live up to your very generous post. Your comments in the old SC Forum on the original Brest-Litovsk scenario confirmed that it was an interesting variant and did more than anything else to encourage the old Z-Plan project.

-- In the original SC editor, when an HQ was deleted it meant it became unavailable. The allies wound up losing the Montgomery HQ because at the time I didn't realize that, so I'm proceeding more cautiously with the project this time. Also, it will be harder than the Z-Plan ideas because it will be necessary to represent a new country (Ukraine) and an abstraction of the German Afican colonies. Hopefully I'll have a working model by February.

-- -- I'm planning two Z-Plan scenarios.

The simplest will be 1941 . Aside from a stronger Germany and UK, mainly with units in production, the major change to Hubert's 1939 FW will be stronger Italy and USSR. Germany will have four Hindenburg class BBs in production with the Bismarck and Tirpitz completed while the UK has a slightly expanded fleet. The Maginot Line will extend half-way to the English Channel.

Instead of opting for Hitler's 1942, 44 or 46 promises, I'll compromise with this one. The second Z-Plan will be 1943 as I doubt Hitler would have been patient enough to wait longer. Building on the Z-41, this one will have increased tech for Germany, the UK, and USA. There will also be a pair of carriers in production for Germany with the Hindengurg BBs already launched. The Maginot Line will extend all the way to the coast.

The Z-plan scenarios will be adaptations of Hubert's 1939 FW, the same basic situation with the premise that it's happening 2 years later or 4 years later than it did historically. In both the assumption regarding France is that it neglects both research and modernization in favor of extending the Maginot Line. In the 1941 version Italy will be a viable power but in the 43 version it will be proportionately weaker than Britain and Germany, having peaked in 1941.

Edwin,

SeaMonkey, summed it up perfectly. The idea is that, with Germany coming out of WWI so strong, Britain and France saw themselves as forced to ally with the USSR. At some point, after Lenin's death, Stalin makes a grab to regain the Ukraine, which is Germany's protectorate. Germany declares war on the USSR with Britain and France declaring war on Germany. Very similar to the domino DOWs of 1914.

But -- the only country prepared for an immediate action is the USSR. It's initial advaces are swift, but the Ukrainian/German defense becomes stronger as the Soviets move farther west.

Germany's two opening strategies are to either react in the east, or turn west first, while France is even further behind than itself. In doing that it gambles that the knockout punch while giving territory in the east. If the knockout blow fails shifting units to fight the Soviets, while also holding the Low Lands, will be very difficult. Conversely, moving most of its units east might lead to a permanent deadlock in the West with only a negligable advantage in the east.

SC-1 wasn't as well suited to this situation as it's successor, where Ukrania can be created as a country and not just as part of Germany.

-- I'm still deciding what year to place it in. In the original it was 1939 because that was the earliest possible. The new scenario might be 1935 or 1930, or perhaps even 1925. The earlier it starts the lower the overall tech, which I think would present an interesting element.

If I'm satisfied with the results, I might make a different Brest-L scenario for each of those three years. They'd each be a variation on the theme just stated.