First impressions of Lebanons long term implications.

[dan/california]

Three things I would like to propose as initial lessons from the current Hezbollah- Israeli conflict.

1. Active defenses against atgm's are about to become a lot of peoples top priority. A lot of money is about to be thrown at this problem.

2. Various electronic means of locating the source of incoming small arms fire are likewise about to become much more aggressively and expensively pursued.

3. No amount of precision in weapons guidance when the will help prevent civilian casualties when the other side is willing to use human shields to the extent that Hezbollah is doing. Their must be a decision made in advance to live with this or not engage in the operation in the first place.

[Peter Cairns]

Comments on all three

1) Active defense against ATGM's has been live for years and is pretty good, I don't see why this should accelerate it. As to the most effective system available, Iam a traditionalist, I think it is still by far.... Infantry.

2) I don't see the issue here by and large when fired at it's quickly identified. Snipers are a problem as is a well dug in enemy, but thats nothing new, we've had it since at least the US civil war.

I've know doubt that people will be out to sell all kinds of expensive gizmo's but that doesn't mean the threat justifies the expense, or that the next war will be one where they can be used.

3) The problem with the Israeli approach isn't a lack of precision but the size of ordinance and the tactics used. If you use a 1,000lb bomb on a BM-21 beside a block of flats sheltering civilians are going to die. If you use a Hellfire, they probably won't.

The US is working on a more accurate Small diameter bomb, with the hope that you can take out a target (Tank/Katyusha/Mortar), with a 25kg bomb istead of a 500kg one.

Less civilain casualties, less logistical burden, longer loiter times at reduced weight, more targets per aircraft per sortie, smaller cheaper aircraft (and drones) can be used.

Thats little comfort for the Israeli's (or the Lebonese they are bombing), as they don't have them, but they could try doing what the US has tried and use concrete or inert practice bombs which will take out a rocket launcher if they hit it every bit as well as a 1,00lb one.

I think thats a better way to go than free fire zones which since Vietnam up until the Lebanon now, seem to have done more to drive people in to the enemies camp than anything else.

Which by my count means we disagree pretty much on all three.

Peter.

[dan/california]

Informed opinions such as yours peter are why I spend enough time on these boards to drive my wife crazy.

[John Kettler]

Peter Cairns,

Dropped from a great enough height, those binders of municipal regs could indeed do some damage. Believe the word you want is "ordnance." Turning now to more pressing matters...

Here is a wholly new to me active RPG defense measure which is simple, cheap, and will apparently be deployed soon.

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200672223958.asp

There are ways to defeat the Firefinder CM/CB radars, which I believe Israel has.

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200531422.asp

Lower lethality munition for MOUT (concrete JDAM)

This would utterly wreck a Katyusha launcher while not blowing up the whole neighborhood.

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2005107231617.asp

Regards,

John Kettler