Dan Fenton Posted August 24, 2003 Share Posted August 24, 2003 The 1.07 patch states that "Spain tweaked to react to an Allied invasion of Portugal, may now join Axis". I have a friend who has invaded Portugal, using the 1.07 patch as Allied five times straight without a Spanish reaction. Does anyone know the mechanics or probability of the Spanish reaction? For example, is it a one time percentage chance upon an Allied Portugese DOW, a percentage chance per turn after the DOW that Portugal has not been conquered, or a percentage change per turn for the rest of the game? Is the percentage chance 20% or less? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wachtmeister Posted August 24, 2003 Share Posted August 24, 2003 Sure would be good to know, since an Allied DOW on Portugal represents an indirect way to have Spain join Axis early enough to prevent Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria from joining Axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted August 24, 2003 Share Posted August 24, 2003 It does get twisty, does not it? :confused: [ August 24, 2003, 03:10 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuniworth Posted August 24, 2003 Share Posted August 24, 2003 Christ, Im getting more and more upset by this game. I dont even have the strength to comment on this, this game is totally screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pzgndr Posted August 25, 2003 Share Posted August 25, 2003 Spain has 75% chance of joining Axis if Allies attack Portugal. I believe that's a one-time check, not each turn. So it's quite possible to play several games without seeing Spain join Axis. This whole Spanish Gambit thing isn't so terrible. I fail to see what the Allies gain by activating Spain early either by DOW or attacking Portugal, and then NOT conquering Spain and blocking the Axis on the Iberian peninsula. It's certainly an option to create a different game, but not one that's necessarily in the Allied player's long term interest to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wachtmeister Posted August 25, 2003 Share Posted August 25, 2003 Wow - that 75% chance to hand Spain to Axis sure puts a damper on Portugal DOW, unless it is, as Mr. Macon points out, part of an actual Allied Strategy to conquer Spain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terif Posted August 25, 2003 Share Posted August 25, 2003 I totally agree with Bill Macon: A DoW at Spain without conquering creates a different game, but is a short and long term disadvantage for Allies. If they conquer it additionally, then Allies can have a slight advantage, but only if Axis can be confused by this strategy and dont know how to react properly. Otherwise it has "only" the advantage of creating a very different game (much better if you have played the "standard" game very often already). It has usually no mpp advantage, but a strategical advantage. And yes: the percentage of Spain joining Axis after an allied DoW at Portugal is 75 %. But first Axis have to conquer France, only then Spain will join (same with all other Axis minors). I am not sure if SC checks only once for the 75% or every turn - I didnt test this, cause even a one time 75% is too much risk to take. But if really someone tried it 5 times and Spain didnt join Axis, then I guess its a one time check. Other possibility: France was still alive and therefore Spain didnt join. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oak Posted August 25, 2003 Share Posted August 25, 2003 In one recent game I played, the Allies declared war on Portugal and Spain joined the Axis 2 turns later. So, I'm pretty sure that the 75% chance is checked each turn. That makes it pretty much a certainty that if the Allies DOW Portugal that Spain will join the Axis soon after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Fenton Posted August 26, 2003 Author Share Posted August 26, 2003 I believe that France had not yet fallen during my friend's games. That would explain five "misses" under a 75% probability per turn chance. Terif raised some interesting issues that I was beginning to suspect. Axis minor allies won't come in until after France has fallen. Does this include Finland? I also suspect that Yugoslavia won't revolt until after France has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wachtmeister Posted August 27, 2003 Share Posted August 27, 2003 At least with regard to Spain joining Axis after an Allied DOW on Portugal, the "France must fall 1st criterion" does not seem to apply. In an AI game I played to test this premise, the Allies DOW'd and conquered Portugal several turns before the fall of France. Spain joined Axis the next turn after France fell. Therefore, it may be that either the chances are less that Spain converts, before the fall of France, or the 75% per turn check does not trigger until after France falls. BTW Hungary joined Axis a turn or two before France fell, but Romania and Bulgaria remain nuetral, since they had not joined Axis, prior to Spanish entry into the Axis camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terif Posted August 27, 2003 Share Posted August 27, 2003 I just tested the Portugal/Spain-France thing over a dozen times: - As long as France is alive: Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Spain dont join under no circumstances. Yugoslavia doesnt coup (it has only a 10 % chance each turn, but even with Greece conquered =25% chance it never couped, so I am pretty sure...). - France or Spain has no effect on Finland: they will join like normal - either USA neutral when Russia is in the war, or Leningrad threatened (40%). - if Allies DoW Portugal: Spain will join Axis AFTER France surrendered with a probability of 75% checked EACH turn. Therefore it will join Axis in every case, but sometimes it needs one or two turns longer... - When Spain joined: then Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria dont join any more. But it can happen that in the same turn first one of the minors (e.g. Hungary) joins and then Spain (=the rest of the potential minors stay neutral). First the game checks for the usual minors and then for Spain to join - in one test all 3 minors joined and Yugoslavia couped in the same turn France surrendered + Spain joined the next turn. In several tests France surrendered, Romania and/or Hungary joined AND Spain joined, all three things at the end of the same turn... Wachtmeister: I think this is what happened in your test: after you conquered France, Hungary joined (can be the same turn France falls). After Hungary Spain joined. Either in the same turn or one/two turns later. [ August 27, 2003, 08:02 AM: Message edited by: Terif ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaka of Carthage Posted August 27, 2003 Share Posted August 27, 2003 Good info Mr T. Now test the effect of invading UK on Russian readiness and answer that question under the Am I Senile? topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Narayan Sengupta Posted August 28, 2003 Share Posted August 28, 2003 Hi Guys, Is there a reason to attack Portugal if there is no port? The 5 resource points aren't worth it, as far as I can tell. So to get the Iberian, I usually land about five units through Gibralter and adjacent to Lisbon (but not just attack Lisbon) and fight up my way inland. Is there a better strategy? Narayan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaka of Carthage Posted August 28, 2003 Share Posted August 28, 2003 Plunder. Portugal is easy plunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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