Tech ...can u peeps help..

[guinty1]

How random is the tech advances ?,im currently playing a game as allies and ive had 2 (now 4) chits in jets UK from mid 1940 ,its now late 41 ,germany has lvl 4 jets ,UK still lvl 0 (same thing with LR except ive got 3 in that),is it totaly random or am i doing something wrong ....

[guinty1]

as a post script ,i know that if u are behind a tech u get a slight % increase in obtaining it ect ect,i was just wondering if certain techs at certain times are more likely to suceed.

[Terif]

Simple answer: no

As far as I know it is only random, no tech has a better chance to develope than another one.

It can seem so, when the enemy is ahead somewhere and in some techs usually both sides are researching and therefore helping each other (jets/LR), because the percentage increase of the catch up effect is not that ´slight´ . But in the end, every tech tree has the same chance under the same circumstances

In a normal research you have a 5-4-3-2-1 decrease of your research chances (i.e. 5%/chit from lv 0 to lv 1, but only 1% chance/chit from lv 4 to 5). But when any enemy nation is ahead, then you have a base chance of 5% and additionally 1% for each tech level difference (i.e. in the extremest case you have a 9% chance/chit instead of the normal 1% chance, i.e. 9 times higher).

If you are behind in tech (especially jets), it is often better to go into the defensive until you have catched up. With 4 chits you have a minimum chance of 24% each turn while your opponent has a significantly lower chance to get the next level, so a tech difference of 2 or more is very seldom and only temporary. Usually you will catch up within the next couple of turns. Nevertheless you have to be careful while you are behind in tech, since then the enemy has a good incentive to attack you and to do as much damage as possible before you can catch up .

[ October 11, 2004, 01:01 PM: Message edited by: Terif ]

[guinty1]

thanks ,clear and precise as usual

[Friendly Fire]

Note that many players including myself have reported unusually good luck with Italian AT tech, any comment Terif?

[jon_j_rambo]

@Friendly Fire --- Yes, the Italians do well in AT for some reason. I started a thread at PanzerLiga regarding this, but I was quickly rebuked, stating my observations do not outweigh statistical & mathematical facts...unless the program has some funky seed generator that favors it.

[Oblio]

@ FF and JJR and Terif

As for the Italian bias, I have also noticed that early research funding (in '39) seems to be somehow rewarded by the game.

I've done some quick testing (me against me) :

- I did nothing but buy 1 chit as Germany and one as England, then immediately end all subsequent turns until June 40

- limited stats (about 10 tests)

- in several cases, I got an advance in the 1st or 2nd turn

- normally I got one or two advances before end of June 40 both as Germany and UK

- "most unluky" was getting the first advance in September.

By the official research rules, I think that getting this result would have a probability of below 1%. What do you think. Did you notice that as well ?

invested on turn 3 and finished each turn

and found that

[Terif]

Hi Oblio,

Yes, if you invest early you are naturally much more likely to get a research advance since you have more time and therefore more chances for a breakthrough .

Research is random and former results have no influence on your current research, so it can happen that you get the next advance immediately after buying your first chit or to get several advances in a row, or to get no tech at all etc...

Since such events are remarkable and unusual you usually remember them very good but you ´forget´ the many many games where you didn´t get a surprising success or only at a normal time frame during the game...

The research issue came up already several times in the past (usually every 6-12 months when new players arrive and don´t read the old threads ). Hubert already tested it several times with up to 10.000 loops and the research system worked correct. Since I trust his results, I would say it is more a psychological problem of selective awareness or how it is called and not a real thing .

[ October 14, 2004, 04:30 AM: Message edited by: Terif ]

[Friendly Fire]

Aha, Terif said something interesting, catch up rule only considers highest enemy tech level.

So Terif, can you confirm that in this situation

USSR at L3 jets

Germany at L2

UK at L1.

You are saying each chit invested for UK in jets is generating 5+2 (Germany Tech Level) -1 = 6% odds and not 5+3-1 = 7%??

This is news to me. I am not sure this is a good design decision - especially in the case where UK and US are trying to catch one another!

[Liam]

Despite what some may some, I notice that the Dice tend to go a certian way. Either for you or against you. I usually get streaks, good and bad. Even if I have 5 chits, and everyone else is at Level3-4 in 1 area. I can spend 10-15-20 turns and get nothing past Jet0, for 30-40-50 games I've experienced this.

Then the next game I notice I get streaks with 1 tech. Best to spread your techs out. I don't believe entirely in the random theory. I don't think people who haven't programmed the game know for sure

There are trends. You'll get blessed in 1 area, sometimes not the area you need but, Subs, AT, Jet, LR, Anti-Air, IT... any can go with 1 chit and no bonuses

[Maverik]

I find Germany blessed in anti air radar. 1 Chit after the fall of France and by end 1941 level 4 and sometimes level 5. Is there something in the engine that calculates how long the initial chits were there for?

Example: Germany starts with level 1 Rockets, does the computer calculate Germany having this for, lets say 3 years, but level one gun laying radar for only 1 a give a bonus accordingly?

I find Russia blessed at industrial tech, and Britain blessed with heavy bombers.

For Germany heavy tanks seems very slow and anti tank quick.

[Terif]

@Friendly Fire:

Hmm, I would say it was a good design decission and not a bad one that you get only a bonus for your research via catch up if the enemy is ahead (and not one of your allies). Otherwise you could too easily get a huge tech advantage vs the enemy by combining your research. But the purpose of the catch up effect is to reduce tech differences so you will only get a temporary advantage and sooner or later the opponent has the chance to - and most likely will - catch up.

BTW: Yes, the chance is 6% (5% base chance + 1% for the 1 tech level difference to the enemy).

@Liam + Maverik:

Yep, only the programmers/testers know for sure - but they were saying it is working correct

However, many people (not only now, but also in the past) "noticed" streaks or advantages for AT, AA, Jets, LR, GLR, Rockets, IT, Bombers, Subs...and every country seems to have these "advantages" to the same extend (only in sonar I cant remember someone claiming any country to have a better chance to research it...maybe because it´s the only tech nobody ever researches... ).

So in the end, since every nation and all tech areas (except sonar... ) have been indicated to get better research results from time to time, I would say this is a good confirmation that the research system works and creates in average the expected random results .

Extreme results can, will and did happen (its a random research system...) - during a game usually only in one tech area since in two areas simultaneously is much more unlikely than in one...and naturally in different games, it is a different tech area and/or a different country where you can see an extreme.

By this randomness games can go a completly different way, depending on the techs were you get good results (or average, or no results..). But as long as you adopt your strategy to the situation and current tech levels, tech will nearly never decide a game - in the long run strategy decides in SC, not luck .