"What If?"

[Simon Fox]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>As I understood it, a german flight got screwed up in it's navigation during a night raid and dropped it's bombs on the first sign of lights that they saw. That happened to be London. That incident prompted the raid on Berlin, that led to Hitler's obsession with leveling London.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Though the above quote is from Capt Ayers it seems to be the consensus on this thread and actually you are all incorrect. While this easy explanation happily rationalises the actions of each side as "mistakes" or responses to them, few modern historians would agree with this view of events themselves or the connection and rationale behind them.

Firstly, it is clear that both Hitler and Goring had ordered that London was not to be bombed and everything suggests that the Luftwaffe raid on London on the night of 24-25 August was some sort of bungle. Which is hardly suprising given it's organisational incompetence at the time. Goring was furious when he heard of it, but since the eastern front didn't exist for some time to come no-one was actually transferred there. In fact the threat was transfer to the infantry, which as far as I know wasn't carried out as a large amount of paperwork went "missing".

However it is unlikely that this bombing was a result of a navigational error, an isolated incident or a single plane. Bombs fell on widely different parts of the capital at times ranging from 11pm to 3:40am the following morning.

As for the British retaliation, as early as the 19th July Churchill asked the RAF about mounting a raid on Berlin on short notice and plans were in place for this by the 2nd August.

Though the RAF raid on Berlin on the night of 25-26 August was in response the the previous nights raid on London it was by no means spur of the moment and was widely approved. This RAF raid played no part whatsoever in the Luftwaffe Air Fleet commanders' decision to switch attacks to London

The RAF raid on Berlin was made through cloud, most of the bombs fell on open countryside south of the city, the only casualties were two slightly injured in a northern suburb. Consequently so slight were it's effects that there was considerable doubt amongst the German leadership as to whether it was actually a raid of an accident of navigation and a few jettisoned bomb loads. It was only subsequently after a number of RAF Berlin raids that Hitler was convinced that the RAF were deliberately attacking the capital.

The German decision to switch it's attack to London was an operational one based on erroneous intelligence regarding the RAF losses and based on well documented discussions within OKW not a thoughtless whim of Hitler. While Sperrle wished to continue the airfield attacks Kesserling did not, since he considered the RAF could always withdraw out of range. On 30 August the Germans beleived that the RAF was down to 420 fighters with 100 reserve when actual numbers were 750 with 200 reserves. They also grossly underestimated British production figures. Lured by these optimistic figures into beleiving they were on the cusp of success and that the only way to lure what they beleived to be the weakened British fighters remaining into battle was by attacking a target which they could not refuse to defend- London. Thus on 31st August OKL issued the order which was for effect on 7th Sept. This was a thoroughly discussed decision with considerable support within the Luftwaffe not a knee-jerk reaction of Hitler's. An important factor was the sense of urgency to finish the RAF off in time for Sealion to be launched in 1940.

In retrospect of course it was a mistake but not one which was catastrophic to their chances of winning the BoB. It might be nice for the British to beleive it was backs to the wall and down to the last few fighters or the Germans to think that they were dudded again by that idiot Hitler but the evidence supports neither of these. The facts are that the Luftwaffe had bungled any chance they had long before the switch to bombing London and that the slim chance they had was largely due to the British Air Ministries' inefficient management of it's manpower resources in 1939 and 1940.

[Formerly Babra]

Simon, the discussions between Sperle, Goering and Kesselring you describe occurred at a meeting in The Hague on September 3rd. Your analysis is correct in that the London bombings were not a reprisal for Berlin, but an extension of German tactical planning. However, it would still appear that the bombing a week earlier in August was indeed accidental.

From The Luftwaffe War Diaries, by Cajus Bekker:

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>During the whole of August, however, Hitler for political reasons had forbidden any attack on the capital. Unfortunately, owing to a regrettable navigation lapse on the part of a few bomber crews (my emphasis), it had happened. On the night of Augus 24th/25th some isolated bombs, destined for the aircraft works at Rochester and the oil tanks on the Thames, had descended over the London area, and this had sparked off a whole chain reaction..

The Operations Chief at KG 1, Major Josef Knobel, recalls vividly the teleprinter signal from Goering that early in the morning reached each unit which had operated during the night: "It is to be reported forthwith which crews dropped bombs in the London prohibited zone. The Supreme Commander reserves to himself the personal punishment of the commanders concerned by remustering them to the infantry."<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

So how could a number of bombers make the same navigational error over several hours? Quite easily actually. If visibility was poor that night (and it was), then the bombers were likely flying on a radio beacon. Naturally, mention of this new, albeit crude, technology could not be used to explain the accident to the public.

[OberGrupenStompinFeuhrer!]

Wow you guys know some stuff!

Anyway, with the talk about the 1870 war leading to the 1914 war etc. I heard an interesting view on the History Channel a while back which hadn't occured to me before. Basically, the contention was that the first world war did not finish until 1989! The loose logic goes like this. WWI was not properly settled - Treaty of Versaille and so on- which led to WWII. WWII was not properly settled with the Allies and Stalin at loggerheads. So the taking down of the Berlin Wall was the final resolution of turmoil which had erupted 75 years earlier!

Ober

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"Them Yankees couldn't hit the broa..."

[tss]

Then in the Battle of Britain, if the German bomber group didn't accidently drop their bombs on London, the Germans would have probably beaten the British.

No. Operation Sealion didn't have any real changes to succeed. The Kriegsmarine was way too weak to prevent the British from destroying the shipping. A single destroyer getting through the German escorts would be enough to destroy the transports of a whole division. Also, Luftwaffe didn't have any real anti-ship aircraft available at the time and the pilots were not trained on anti-shipping role.

- Tommi