Darstand Posted October 8, 1999 Share Posted October 8, 1999 I will start with a disclaimer; I am not an expert on China. Nor, am I to the best of my knowledge, Prejudice or Racist towards people of Chinese or Asian origin. The purpose of this post is to start a thoughtful discussion on the potential future. With the collapse of Communism is the USSR, the US is now the worlds only Super Power. However I believe that this situation will only continue for another decade or two at most. Here is why I think China will become the next super power Monetary: China has been a poor nation for a long time. However, thanks to a very liberal trade policy with the US, the Chinese are flourishing financially. In our greed to try and cash in on a consumer base of 1.8 billion people, we are supporting one of the most totalitarian governments in the world. Infrastructure: With this money the Chinese are building up their infrastructure. The PRC has committed 1 TRILLION dollars to building up their country. Military: Realize except for the rocket technology; most PRC army equipment is vintage WWII and Old Russian hand-me downs. Once again thanks to a large windfall of money; they are upgrading their military. Now currently under development is the X-31 a jet fighter equal to the F-14. Half of all money made from export to the US is believed to be spent on the military. Future Aggressors: a few of the major reasons I think they will be the ones to start the next major conflict. Water. They are running very low. All major cities are water rationing. Low resources; they are running out including farmland. Now look northward. Lots of land, tons of natural resources, plenty of water, ample room for an overcrowded populace. Please post your own thoughts here, on these subjects Is China the next Super Power? With China start the worlds next major conflict? "Writing posts to occupy my time while awaiting CM and the end of this very boring workday "-Darstand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Meier Posted October 9, 1999 Share Posted October 9, 1999 If you look at China's population densities you will find it mainly centralized in one area... This to me says that they should have lots of room to grow, but I don't know what the other land is like.. Water... I don't know if you have seen the dam they are building across the Yantzee? I don't know if this will help the water problem.. China also has the weight of their population to contend with... That might be why they are investing so much into the infastructure... I believe a lot of folks already feel that China is a super power already... Just some thoughts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fionn Posted October 9, 1999 Share Posted October 9, 1999 Well, America's current policy is hardly friendly towards China. Now, I know a lot of people mightn't agree with that insofar as most favoured nation trading status goes BUT America's policy towards China seems based upon the realisation that economically integrated countries relatively free of ideology rarely begin wars. Oppressed and ill-educated people rarely revolt in a succesfull manner.. It is only once the oppression has begun to be lifted and education occurs that revolts become effective (in the main of course). Look at what America's policy is doing... In return for a slight easing of oppression America is allowing China to become more economically involved in the world's trade. An entire class of people previously unknown in revolutionary China who are educated and NOT dedicated to the ideals of Chinese communism are appearing because of this opening up to trade with foreign countries. Overall I think that given time the very drive to modernise (which I agree was begun to a large extent because the military needed a modern industrial complex to continue building capable weapons systems) will result in the lessening of the Chinese people's willingness to wage war (and indeed the ability of the Communist party to peddle its propaganda to them.) Sure, the peasants will still be able to be persuaded to any view since they have no oustide contact and little education but the middle classes I feel will, like middle classes everywhere, be more concerned with making their money, living nice lives and won't be willing to put up with wars. It will be VERY difficult for the Communist party to turn back the clock without a disastrous deceleration in growth and the collapse of much of the industrial complex which has been built up over the past 30 years. The military won't allow the collapse of the industrial complex since it is part of the military complex. In short, I think that the Western policy of using the military's desire for a proper and advanced industrial base has led to the creation of an educated class with knowledge of the west who want what middle classes all over the world want. Sure China can still go to war but if it does so it will have huge problems with this middle class. It can't ignore those problems SO it might choose to crack down. If it chooses to crack down it'll be signing the death warrant of much of its new industrial base. It's very much a Catch 22. OTOH if China sticks to very limited wars over economic issue (like many countries do today) it will just remain a minor annoyance (compensations can be given to anyone who has to give up the Spratleys or some such) where the middle classes will put up with the minor wars and continue growing. Personally, I think if they go hardline they'll destroy their own military viability BUT if they continue along the road they're on they'll end up with a very viable military but will have huge problems wielding it offensively. Still, the national hatred of Russia is so strong they might try for something there. That would be a pretty nasty conflict. ------------------ ___________ Fionn Kelly Manager of Historical Research, The Gamers Net - Gaming for Gamers [This message has been edited by Fionn (edited 10-08-99).] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KwazyDog Posted October 9, 1999 Share Posted October 9, 1999 My girlfriends sister just got back from working in China for a year and had many stories to tell. The one theme that floated through most of them and suprised me the most is that the people there are happy. In the part she worked (far inland) the people lived simple lives farming their land but they were happy lives. She lived near a military barracks and the soldiers there she said were also very friendly. This is something I never realised about China....I was presumed it to be otherwise for some reason. That shows my own ignorance I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebaker Posted October 9, 1999 Share Posted October 9, 1999 Darstand, China being a superpower was confirmed around 2000 yrs ago by a guy named John writing in a old ignored book called Revelation. Revelation is part of an older even more ignored book called the Bible. See Rev 9:14-16 and 16:12 and please tell how many countries could field an army of 200 million soldiers (and as we saw in Korea if you can walk your soldier to China's leaders). Darstand don't mean to sound confrontational just writing in a rush - its Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Big Time Software Posted October 9, 1999 Share Posted October 9, 1999 The off topic posts are starting to get REALLY off topic. I'm shutting this one down. Sorry if some are interested, but we have to draw a line somewhere, and if it isn't here... Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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