Questions for Steve (General PBEM) #2

[Guest Big Time Software]

I've closed out the previous thread just because it was getting too long (load time). Feel free to keep up the existing discussion from the old thread here.

Now, there was a question about what the actually reinforcements are...

Martin is getting two reinforced platoons (MMGs and zooks) on turn 5. They will appear on top of the south west hill overlooking the town. Another reinforced platoon (MMG I think and one bazooka?) about Turn 10. What Fionn really doesn't want to hear is that they are going to pop up on the very Western side of the map. In other words, right in his back door Then around turn 18 or so, 1 Sherman 76 and 2 Sherman 75s will pop up in the same place. The theory behind these last two reinforcements is that they fought throug h the western part of the town and are now on map. Oh, and there is one fighter bomber coming in somewhere after the last infantry and before the tanks. 75% chance of it coming in on, uhm, turn 14?

Fionn is getting only 2 PzIVjs (or was it h?) and a platoon of Volksgrenadiers. Sorry Fionn, that is all the Reich has to spare

There was also another question about the artillery balance. Fionn has a wee bit more firepower, but Martin has more smaller stuff. He has 3 60mm mortars, and they are doing damage to Fionn in a major way right now. Also his 105s might not be as powerful as Fionn's 210mm Nebelwerfers, but they are MUCH more accurate. Accurace counts in a big way!

Each FO can call a certain number of vollies of fire down. The number depends on the weapon doing the firing. When the fire missions are used up, no more can be called down.

You can put FOs in as reinforcements. In fact, ANY mobile unit can be put in as a reinforcement. What I mean by this is that a Pillbox can't be a reinforcement

Steve

NOTE, forgot to mention that if something doesn't come in on Turn x, it will try to come in each turn thereafter at the same percentage (i.e. Turn 5 at 50%, Turn 6 at 50%, Turn 7 at 50%, etc.) until the reinforcements arrive or the game ends.

[This message has been edited by Big Time Software (edited 08-24-99).]

[Rick]

I maybe kind of weird, but the thing that's impressed me the most so far is the victory flags changing to neutral. This is going to change alot from previous games, no more winning decisive victories even when you're holding onto the objective with only the skin of your teeth.

Could you give us an idea of how firmly a location has to be under your control before you get credit for it?

[Los]

"One last question for your opinion, LOS: As for the spotting of tracer rounds by the assistant gunner. Wouldn't the snow be kicked up by the muzzle blast from firing of bursts."

Yes as Steve said dust is a bigger problem than snow. It woudln't be too big a factor though loose blowing snow would obscure sighting over distance. And yep packs, firing from skis (not an issue in the Ardennes) or what not is something that is trained for. UNless it's very light powder, you just don't get that kick up. Another nice thing about snow is it's a quick way to keep your MG from overheating...

Los

[Mike D]

Stupid question. Why are neither of the two Shermans that have been hit smoking, burning, etc.?????

Mike D

aka Mikester

[Guest Big Time Software]

Rick - it depends on the types of units, how close they are to the flags, and whether they can see the flags, but generally you'll need about two squads worth of "combat power" to control a flag. But! If the enemy has anyone in the immediate vicinity with even a sharpened stick, the flag reverts to neutral. You really have to control the area to get the points.

Mike - one of them is a Jumbo which has the "wet" ammo stowage which makes brewing up less likely (though not too uncommon). The other Sherman was just lucky not to burn, as most often they do.

Charles

[Larry Marks]

Steve, is it possible for Moon and Fionn to track ammunition for their individual units as in the Close Combat series? Thanks.

Larry

[Guest Big Time Software]

Yes, ammo is tracked for each unit. Ammo is either indivdual rounds (75mm HE, AT, Smoke, etc.) or in "units". A unit is relative to the unit type and is representative of the unit's ammo supply as a whole. Each time they fire a unit is expended (exception-> when an LMG is fired it takes only a fraction of a UNIT if over, uhm, 500m?). When there are casualties there are generally proportional loss of ammo. However, things like HMGs and MMGs have their own formula for losing ammo.

Steve

[Marko]

Does Fionn know that Martin will be receiving reinforcements? I realise he doesn't know where and when they are coming; my question is simply if he knows they are coming.

Marko

P.S. No more excuses. My pre-order check is being sent on Friday when I visit the bank. Yee-haw!

[Guest Big Time Software]

Thanks Marko

The game itself won't tell the player anything about reinforcements, friend or foe. We decided to leave this up to the scenario designer.

In this case I gave Fionn a pretty detailed idea about what he was getting and when, but gave Martin much less info to go on. He was VERY surprised to get 2 platoons on Turn 5 (should be posted by tomorrow). He was also VERY happy Martin knows that more stuff is on the way, and that stuff consists of tanks and infantry. He has NO clue what it is or when it will arrive. The story I fed Martin is that his force is fighting through the western end of the town, so they will get to the eastern side when they can.

Neither player has a clue about what, when, and where reinforcements will come in. They don't even know that each other is actually getting any. They both assume this, but I could have been mean

Steve

[Ben Galanti]

Steve,

Would it be possible for you to post a picture of the penetration chart for the StuG IIIG vs. the Jumbo? I was more then a little suprised to see the Jumbo go so quickly (as I'm sure Martin was )

Also about that engagement, I was curious as to how the StuG got off 2 shots before the Jumbo even got one off, especially since both units knew of each other. Was the StuG a more experienced crew or does it just fire that much faster? Thanks!

[This message has been edited by Ben Galanti (edited 08-25-99).]

[Pixman]

Steve, I'm with Ben about the Jumbo knock out. It just seems like that StuGIII can wade in and knock stuff out at its leisure. Did Martin not have interlocking fields of fire between the Jumbo and the Sherman that got knocked out prior to it? If so, and even if not, wouldn't the Jumbo get off the first shor two. Furthermore, shouldn't it be much more likely to hit first given that it is hull down and was not previously occupied shooting at something else? I know the Sherman had a lot of weaknesses, but I thought target acquisition and rate of fire was one of its strengths. And the StuGIII does not even have a turret! However, I do recognize that it has a very low profile which would make it a little harder to hit.

------------------

The enchanter may confuse the outcome, but the effort remains sublime.

[Los]

Yeah a hull down jumbo and a low lying STuGIII are both small signatures. Seems to me crew quality rules all (all has been) esp since both tanks are physically capable of knocking each other out. Was it ever stipulated what units are fighting? Vet's ?regulars? etc etc.

Los

[Mike D]

I'm scratching my head w/ Ben and Pix on this one. How did the Stug get the better of the Jumbo? Just plain luck? How did it get two shots off? Was the Jumbo's turret turned the wrong way??? Would also like to see the penetration diagrams for both tanks vs. it's respective opponent, if possible just to get a feel for who should have come out on top in this one.

In any event it looks like my initial prediction on this battle is coming truer all the time. The US forces are getting into some real trouble. Martin had better hope those reinforcements show up quick and/or his 105mm artillery does some massive damage to Fionn's HT's and PanzerGrenadiers approaching from the west.

Thanks,

Mike D

aka Mikester

[This message has been edited by Mike D (edited 08-25-99).]

[Dar]

Steve:

Boy, was this play-by-play posting a genius marketing stroke! I am literally *drooling* over the idea of getting my hands on this game!

My only consternation so far is the concept of victory flags changing colors during the game while held or evacuated by the forces. Does this work only for locations held by you, or for both players? It would seem to compromise the FoW if you could tell whether or not a site were occupied by the fluctuating flags during the battle--or am I mistaken about the mechanics regarding this?

Thanks,

Dar Steckelberg

[Darstand]

In the Tank battles Martian certainly seems to be getting the short end of the stick. Once is Happenstance, Twice Coincidence, Three time's enemy action. Maybe the bonuses for veteran crews are to high, maybe there is a bug, or of course maybe Reality is 3 Dimensional (Martian got really unlucky). I don't know the answer. Hopefully the programmer's with take another look at the code just to make sure every thing is correct.

[dano6]

I have to agree with everyone else on this board as to the death of the jumbo. How did the stug get off the first shot, especially while he was the one moving, stopping, turning to bring the gun to bear, and then adjusting aim, and then getting off 2 shots before the jumbo could rotate its turret to face. Seems a little strange to me.

As for crew quality of the jumbo, it should have been very good as most jumbo crews lived "long"(for sherman crews) lives and stayed pretty much together. While the jumbo was not invulnerable, it was very survivable.

As for time to aim and bring rounds to bear on target the jumbo should have at least got off the first 2 shots. Both vehicles knew the positions of the others, especially since the stug had already been firing all day long and had to move to engage the jumbo.

And how did the stug penetrate the front of the jumbo at over 500m. An 88mm l56 would have a hard time without APCR ammo. And as we all know the germans had none of that in 1945. So how did the 75mm l48 penetrate especially in an hull down position. Just curious as the rest of us are? Seems as if the germans tank crews are extremely good compared to the US. Who is that in the stug? Whittman's ghost.

dano6

[Guest Big Time Software]

OK, I'll try and explain what happened to the Jumbo. First of all, I was as surprised as all of you were I had hoped that he would have kept that Jumbo around long enough to cause major problems for Fionn. But the Gods of war frowned upon Martin in a big way.

The Stug is Veteran, the Jumbo Regular. Could easily have been set up differently, but that is the way I wanted it This PARTIALLY explains things.

The next factor is that the Jumbo DID have its turret turned around 180 degrees to fire at targets in the town. It probably cost the Jumbo at least one, if not two, "free" shots at the Stug's side before it spun to face the threat. The Jumbo was turned around for a combination of reasons that are logical from the game's standpoint, but are not good from a gamer's standpoint. We are working out something to prevent the tank from doing targets of opportunity in certain cases. This bit is the only Alpha "problem" during the exchange. The rest is cold, hard, math

Charles is cooking up some armor penetration tables to show what the two tanks in question could do to one another. While it is not likely for the Stug to get a kill on the Jumbo, it is statistically possible. And in war the unlikely happens much more than you think. So, while I have seen 2 or 3 Panthers bounce rounds off a Jumbo for 2 turns straight, in this case the Stug got a LUCKY shot and knocked it out in short order. Likely? Nope. Realistic? Yup. If you played 100 games with the same exact situation you might only see 2 or 3 kills like this (guess), but luck means that one of these might be on the first time you try. Unfortunately for Martin, it was not his lucky day.

Don't worry though... Fionn has had some pretty bad luck too. He is missing quite a few HTs at this point do to the luck of Martin's mortars.

Steve

[This message has been edited by Big Time Software (edited 08-25-99).]

[Guest Big Time Software]

About the Jumbo vs. StuG:

1. The reason the StuG got off two shots is that the Jumbo started off with its turret turned 180 degrees in the opposite direction, engaging German units in the town. So not only did it have to rotate the turret around to aim at the StuG, but it was delayed a few seconds even in noticing that the StuG was in view (hey, Jumbos don't have eyes in the backs of their heads ). This is perfectly realistic. However, the reason the Jumbo had its turret turned around in the first place was due to a bug (sort of) in the targeting AI that made it too eager to go after rearward targets that didn't really warrant the attention. I'll be fixing that shortly. (Remember CM is still in alpha stage).

2. As for how the 75mm L/48 on the StuG managed to penetrate the Jumbo's front armor... all I can say is "I knew this would happen." About six months ago I put a piece of code into CM that Steve and I agreed was quite realistic, but we knew that as soon as it popped up in the game people were going to howl, and call it a bug, and accuse us of all sorts of things. What is it?

Weak armor locations, aka "critical hits". These are those few spots on any armored vehicle where the effective armor strength is below normal. Typically they are around any place in which there's a "hole" (even if plugged up) in the armor - a structural weakness - like a coaxial MG mount, or a vision port/block, etc. Any hit on a tank has (roughly) a 1% chance of hitting one of these weak spots, and the armor strength is reduced by as much as 50%.

That's what happened to Martin's Jumbo. Even with the heavy reduction in armor strength the 75mm round was only barely able to penetrate. But it was just enough. Without the "critical hit" the 75mm would have no chance whatsoever to penetrate the front of a hull-down Jumbo. It was hideous bad luck for Martin, but that's war. That 1% chance came up for him. Even perfect plans can go awry. Always expect the unexpected.

3. As for how Martin's Jumbo gunner missed the StuG, that was yet another piece of bad luck, though this time not quite so unusual. Since I wasn't watching the game I don't know what the to-hit % of Martin's gun vs. the StuG was, but let's say (for the sake of argument) that it was about 50%. (This is simplified because the target acquisition system causes first shots to be less accurate while later shots become progressively more accurate as the gunners "find the range" but a flat 50% figure will serve to illustrate my point for now). Let's also remember that the StuG is a sneaky little guy with a very low silhouette. I mean it's short! And can be somewhat difficult to hit. This is no accident. The German designers knew what they were doing.

IIRC, Martin fired three shots and missed. If each (simplified) shot had a 50% chance to hit, we get the following probability of number of hits from three shots:

0 hits: 12.5%

1 hit: 37.5%

2 hits: 37.5%

3 hits: 12.5%

As you can see, there's a 12.5% (1 in 8) chance of NO HITS AT ALL. Granted, Martin was unlucky to get the 1 in 8, but it's hardly a rare thing. Folks, please try not to overgeneralize from a very limited sampling of events.

Martin just had crappy luck all around. If they played this battle ten more times in a row, the StuG would almost certainly be the loser in every one of them.

If you're interested, I've posted "normal" (not including critical hits, though I do consider the hull-down for the Jumbo) armor penetration diagrams for the Jumbo vs. the StuG at http://www.bigtimesoftware.com/images/jumstug.jpg . You can see that the StuG is incredibly lucky to be alive! That 1% saved his butt. Interestingly, the front armor of the StuG is just barely thick enough that it can sometimes cause an incoming 76mm round to shatter and not penetrate. Not often, but about 10%-15% of the time.

By the way, Fionn does not yet know that the tank he knocked out was a Jumbo. He still thinks it was a regular Sherman. That's CM's fog of war in action.

Charles

[Ken Talley]

Does this scenario represent an actual WW2 battle? Is the map hypothetical or does it represent an actual European town? Or was it put together just to do some test battles.

Thanks

[Mike D]

Charles,

"Weak armor locations, aka "critical hits". These are those few spots on any armored vehicle where the effective armor strength is below normal. Typically they are around any place in which there's a "hole" (even if plugged up) in the armor - a structural weakness - like a coaxial MG mount, or a vision port/block, etc. Any hit on a tank has (roughly) a 1% chance of hitting one of these weak spots, and the armor strength is reduced by as much as 50%."

If this is really what happened to Martin's Jumbo I have absolutely no problem with it occurring. Critical hits were discussed here on the board some time ago and I think they very much so belong in the game as they actually did occur in combat, albeit not too often, as you have stated. I think it just caught everyone a little by surprise is all.

Mike D

aka Mikester

PS: Thx for posting the armor penetration diagrams!

[This message has been edited by Mike D (edited 08-25-99).]

[Mike D]

Now that Martin is in trouble what happens if Fionn's relief force front line moves past an area where US reinforcements might arrive later? If the road edge location, etc., that they are supposed to arrive at is totally in enemy territory do they still come into play, or are they lost??? I can think of a couple of arguements each way on this one, just curious how CM handles such situations.

Mike D

aka Mikester

[Larry Marks]

Steve, in his summary of Turn 4 Fionn mentioned that a player can control tree density in a scenario. Will this have an effect on the cover available for your forces? It seems that it would. Also, can vehicles have mechanical failure or run out of fuel? I ask because I think Fionn is grinding the gears on the Panther. Thanks

Larry

[Guest Big Time Software]

Ken,

The map and everything on it is totally a work of fiction. I pictured a typical vilage in a thick forest region on the border betwen France and Germany, and this is what I came up with. Same too for the forces and action taking place. This kind of battle happened frequently. Although not "real" it is certainly plausible. The great open areas would either be pasture or crops in the summer.

Mike, yup, everybody (excluding Fionn, who thinks he killed a M4A3) was shocked at the loss of the Jumbo. As far as the reinforcements go, they will come in where they are supposed to no matter who is around. with the exception of flags, CM does not have concepts of territory possesion. At this scale if you ain't on it, you don't own it. As it turns out, Martin's forces are coming along the Western border only.

Larry, tree density and unit scale are only visual things. This is so you can see stuff better or improve framerate. No trees or full trees makes no difference to the game. The scenario designer chooses what type of trees are where. This can not be modified except to redo the scenario in the editor. No, vehicles don't breakdown or run out of gas. These things rarely happened during a battle, rather before or after. Since we have no way of quantifying mechanical reliability we decided to just not include it.

Steve

[Rick]

Charles,

I think Martin had a screenshot of the Jumbo targeting the Stug, and if I remember right the message about hit% said 35%. That would make the chance of every shot missing significantly higher than the example you gave.

[Pixman]

Steve/Charles: Thanks for the nice reply. All of what you say makes sense. I would not have said anything at all if it had just been the Jumbo. I was pretty good in statistics and understand the fallacies associated with generalizing the results of a small sample (one scenario equaling 5 minutes of time at this point) to the whole population (all possible future CM games). In my mind we were never making that leap but I can see how you might infer it from our posts.

Why I commented: The StuGIII had just toasted another hull down Sherman a minute before the Jumbo and is starting to look a bit like Super SP Gun man. The resulting joint probability of all the events that would have to take place for the SP Gun to take out two tanks in that time period would have to be very very low indeed.

You already gave us roughly 12.5% for the Jumbo to miss twice, which I agree is not much below the Mendoza line. But then start degrading it from there to factor in the probability of misses by the other Sherman and then the probabilities FOR the SP gun to hit BOTH tanks and then -- the kicker -- a critical hit on the Jumbo at 1% as well as a first hit kill on the Sherman and.....well you are better at math than me I am sure. But my guess is the resulting probability that the StugIII would be alive right now is .0000 something at best.

But my worst fear, and I'm sure yours at this point, is that the little bastard is going to go toast another Sherman and then shoot up the town .

All of that said, to be completely honest, I can recall back to my SL days when it seemed like every scenario there was one AFV or stack of squads that seemed to be made of Titanium. And the squads were always led by Sgt. Stahler, lol. We were totally superstitious about it. It would piss guys off to no end, me included, that these super soldiers would seem to just wade through the board killing everything in sight, while defying all of the statistics. Maybe that's why I'm a little sensitive about it -- bad memories of dead GIs in the streets.

It sounds like you guys are confident in your stats. If you are, then I am. The tweak to keep the Jumbo pointed at things that might kill him sounds like a good fix that, in the scenario at hand, would poke holes in the little StuGIII and be done with it.

One question about LOS: You say that the Jumbo could not see the StugIII, so it shot at the town. And it did not see the StugIII right away because it was looking at the town and the gun came up behind it. Okay, but Martin could see the StugIII because it was spotted by somebody in his army, correct? This is the unavoidable issue of omniscience for the player because he has the combined LOS of all of his troops. But the omniscience does not filter down to the unit level correct? Meaning that, in order for the Jumbo to even know the StuGIII exists, he has to be able to see/hear it himself -- no matter who else in the American army can see it? Is my understanding right?

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The enchanter may confuse the outcome, but the effort remains sublime.