Billy Ringo

I'm not very adept at quoting other posts, so I'll copy/paste relevant comments. And thanks to Grigb for the translation and the excellent comments, from his post: Putin: The tactics proposed by the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, Putin noted that although he is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, he did not graduate from the General Staff Academy. "I trust those people who are professionals, they act as they see fit to achieve the ultimate goal," he said. Girkin The President, apparently, does not really comprehend what is happening in the active army, of which he is the commander-in-chief. Otherwise, he would not say "about trusting professionals" (Shoigu is a military professional! What a joke!). [Shoigu is neither military, nor a governmental professional. He has reputation of PR man who cannot really manage anything) They are already lining up where to place blame--away from themselves and straight to the military. When the **** finally hits the fan Putin will claim he trusted his military leaders and they failed him, failed the Motherland. And, they intentionally hid critical information from him so that he didn't "comprehend what is happening". Dictators, Tzars and politicians.....some things never change.

Maybe I'm naive, but opening up Russia to free and uncensored media, TV, music, internet, news, etc. may do more to change behavior and mindset than putting a gun to their heads. Eliminate or temper the uber ultra-nationalistic talking heads on their TV. Then again, a Kardashian Regime Change strategy may prove to be counterproductive.

With regards to Ukrainian mobilization, don't forget those living in Russian occupied territory. With an axe, and an axe to grind. They may not be "soldiers", but they will most likely become more and more disruptive and lethal to Russian military.

Regarding the increase in Russian to Chinese oil imports, China is going to make Russia its' bitch. Negotiating while in obvious desperation has devastating consequences. This is only the start, it will get worse. IMO, Xi played Putin like a fool. Which makes me wonder if Taiwan is still, for the next few years, really that much of a priority for China.

When it comes to both Ukrainian military and public relations policy/strategies I have simply assumed they are leaning heavily on Western brain trusts. Especially those pouring in the most funding, deepest military pockets and have the most public relations/marketing, real-life battle and war-gaming experience. If the US and UK are pouring in billions in resources I think they would want some say in the use of those resources. And, seemingly, it would be advantageous for Ukraine to lean on those brain trusts to maximize their effectiveness on the battlefield AND in influencing public opinion. So, why mention all this? I have a strong suspicion that the Ukrainians, Americans and Brits all have very good estimates as to the losses from both sides of the battle. They know WTF is really going on. The rest of what we see in videos, battlefield losses, press, TV, etc. has been carefully crafted with specific intent to influence the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the World. Thus--what we see may be total BS.

I know nothing of this source, but if even close to accurate it gives credence to a point I made a few days ago about Putin going to full mobilization. He can't risk alienating those in Moscow or St. Petersburg by pushing them to forced conscription. That's an almost 500-1 discrepancy between Moscow and the Buryat region, insane.

After 100+ days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has not supplied war materials or weapons of any significance to Russia. And, Chinese businesses, banks and investment firms have pulled significant resources and funding away from Russia. China could do a lot of things. But so far they haven't and their actions indicate they are not going to align themselves with Russia. Actions speak louder than Russian words. With regards to weapons, the Chinese have seen how poorly Russian arms and equipment performed in battle. They may have decided it's better to keep their toys to themselves for the time being. Peace.

Pay attention to what China does, not what the Russians say the Chinese promised. Most Chinese banks, funding operations, corporate investment, business engagements etc. dealing with Russia have backed off or discontinued operations with the Russians. They don't want to risk Western economic sanctions. Those Chinese entities aren't independent businesses like McDonalds, Nike or Purnell's Home Folks Country Sausage. Their actions represent what China really thinks about the Russian invasion--which doesn't seem very supportive. And, so far, I've heard nothing about Chinese military assets being supplied to Russia.

On multiple occasions I've tried to find the % of Russian military by region both serving and KIA/WIA and can't find it. I've seen numerous articles stating that Russian casualties are significantly higher for ethnic minorities and remote regions than that from more populated and progressive Western areas. But nothing definitive. From a population perspective, my visual reference of Western Russia consists of: Region Population, ml. %of Population Northwest 13.6ml 9.5% Central 38ml 26.4% Volga 30ml 20.8% South 16ml 11% North Cauc. 9.5ml 6.6% Total Western Russia 107 ml 74.4% of total population. Total Russian population 144ml. An assumption on my part, wrong or right, would be that most residents of these regions would likely be more progressive and likely to have more access to Western media. Thus, their opinions on the Russian operations would be much different than that of Central or Eastern Russia. It's one thing to stay quiet and go about one's business when/if the bulk of Russian forces are coming from far away places. But to leverage full Russian mobilization would require the forced conscription of these territories which might then be the tipping point for the bulk of the population to become more vocal and disruptive. Basically say, no mas. If this assumption is only partly accurate, would this make the population base for potentially available Russian conscripts more like 35-45 ml. instead of 144ml? Are body bags of Russian soldiers being sent with frequency back to Moscow or St. Petersburg? From what I'm seeing--the answer is no. Would welcome the thoughts/opinions of those with a much greater and expanded knowledge of Russian culture and demographics. Thanks in advance.

Subtle reminder: Turkey is and has been a valued and important member of NATO. Militarily and strategically located. Erdogan--not so much. But Turkey will be around a LOT longer than Erdogan. Let's think long term.

Sometimes you just have to put pencil to paper, black and white, raw numbers, two columns: $7 trillion vs. $700 billion. That's the difference between very rough estimates of US vs. Russian military spending over the past 10 years. And that doesn't take into consideration graft, inefficiencies nor the budgets of other NATO/Western nations. Maintenance and upkeep. Training. Surveillance. Communications. Breadth and depth of weapons. Research and Development, etc. 10X. I realize I'm stating the most basic and obvious comparison of this entire battle. But sometimes it gets lost in the minutiae of the discussions. 10X. As long as the US and a few other countries continue to support the Ukrainians this war cannot end well for the Russians. Like a AA or AAA baseball team--they may win one game vs. a MLB team (or for our Euro friends--a National League vs. a Premier League), but they aren't winning the season or a series of multiple games. It's not gonna happen. Peace.

Just signed into the forum to say thanks to everyone contributing to this thread. Found the thread a few weeks ago and have been soaking up every comment. Absolutely fantastic and informative content. Bluntly, my domain expertise in this arena is fairly insignificant to most in this thread so I'll be fairly quiet. But absolutely appreciate the content.