Billy Ringo

If they want their ego, pride and identity validated and praised, just claim the Russians the Winners of the 2022 Ukraine Grand Military Games and give them a big trophy and a victory parade!!! Medals for everyone--big huge brightly colored medals!!! Hell, build 'em a monument they can show off to all of their friends that they are the undisputed champions!!! Tell 'em whatever they want to hear, but just go home and leave Ukraine to the Ukrainians. I'm only half kidding. (Sorry for the rant, I'm just struggling to figure out why an entire country thinks and acts like a 15 year old boy going through puberty. Thinking that any perceived slight must be challenged.)

Two questions to ponder: 1. Is there any semi-significant positives for Russia continuing this war outside of ego and pride? Any material/financial resource benefits have and continue to be stripped and the cost of recouping those potential benefits goes up every day. Ego and pride--that's all I got. Virtually every other outcome gets worse the longer this continues--including their prospects for whatever they may consider a "victory." 2. Prigozhin's motives and actions intrigue me. Yes, power corrupts. But maybe there's more to it. Could his time in prison resulting in him, supposedly, being labeled a "cock" be driving his actions? Some type of retribution and proving himself to those in that community? If his motives are primarily emotional then his actions would be more difficult to decipher and predict. Maybe he's just bat**** crazy--which makes him dangerous to both the Ukrainians AND to anyone in the Russian prison system.

What? Can you please point me in the direction of a significant contingent of "far right figures" who "openly state" this?

One of my very respected colleagues in retail predictive analytics/AI when referring to predicting the potential impact of various promotions for a large drug chain once said in a demo: "I don't have a crystal ball, we'll never be perfect. We simply aim to be directionally correct." And that, my friends, was enough to win the deal. This logic would seem to be relevant to warfare----it will never tell us exactly how a battle will be won. But it should be able to help determine what general direction, combination of forces and mass should be applied. And, even more importantly, where and how NOT to apply resources.

So, just what is it you think NATO/US/EU should do? Stop funding? Fund more? Provide more/less weapons? Release the hounds and level Russia? Start negotiating to end things where they are? TIA.

Whereas most of the western world is focused on developing, evolving and deploying cleaner and more efficient energy sources, Russia is off in their own little world blasting destructively away at anything seemingly normal and sane. Completely alienating and distancing themselves from virtually everyone else and oblivious to their own demise---while blindly thinking they are the enlightened chosen ones. I could be wrong on this one--but self-awareness doesn't seem to be one of Russia's strong points. Or, maybe they are starting to get it:

Still don't think the Republicans will reduce Ukrainian support and have already provided my reasoning. I'll either be proven correct or die on that hill. Such as it may be.... (FWIW--hit the post button on this before seeing the previous post. So I'll just stick around on my little hill quietly for a bit longer and see what happens!)

A few random comments from the bleachers: 1. In a non-military industry, I've worked with some of the best AI gurus in my business who have been trying to apply and leverage machine learning and artificial intelligence for years. MASSIVE amounts of data. It's not easy and not nearly as productive as many selling the technology proclaim. Like--"don't believe 90% of the BS because it's all wishful for thinking for most of them." There is gold in AI---but be careful about who proclaims they've found it and when they will be able to truly deliver. 2. The daily Russian kill/destroy numbers over the past few weeks are significantly and fairly consistently high on casualties, low on weapons destruction. Is this because of the weather? A pause in combat operations? Russia running out of military hardware? Mobilized forces being thrown into the meat grinder? Something else? Or "D", all of the above? 3. I'm still of the strong opinion that there will not be a tangible decrease in Republican/Conservative support of Ukraine. Yes, there are rumblings and some outliers--but when all is said and done the support will remain. My reasoning and to reiterate--just my humble opinion: The conservative voices questioning support of Ukraine are being magnified beyond their actual political power and influence. Certainly wouldn't be the first time the media or some self-interest group tried to sow division where it may not be and push their own agenda. Conservative support for Ukraine is still strong and most Republican politicians know and understand that. I was raised and live in the South---Ukrainian support is flat out solid in my little sphere of the world. I work and talk with people all over North America--I don't here any rumblings of dissatisfaction. And to the very esteemed posters who have mentioned this topic over the past 24 hours--the locations are California, Seattle, Oregon, etc. Just like my residence in Tennessee is not indicative of the opinions of the rest of the country--those views may not be reflective of the flyover states. Where we live influences our perspective whether we like it or not. Rand Paul is not as crazy or Putin loving as some may believe. I grew up in Western Kentucky and have friends that know him. He is outspoken and takes a different approach than many, but underneath he's fairly reasonable and his verbal positioning is to frequently just challenge the traditional group think of his own party. Accountability is important to him, so it's no surprise he questions spending---but his desire to cut funding to Ukraine may be less than it appears. Peace and thanks to everyone on this forum for their brilliant and informative comments.

Looks like Poland has gotten over the missile on their turf controversy and are comfortable with the Ukrainian response. Maybe others should do the same and quit beating that dead horse.

As long as we are throwing out possible scenarios, here's another that actually makes the most sense to me: I think that at this point those at the upper tier of US/NATO/Polish and Ukrainian military/government know exactly where the missile/s came from and who sent them. There are WAY too many eyes and overlapping surveillance on this theater right now for anything to be missed of this magnitude. They know---but for some yet-to-be-determined reason they've elected to play out the drama. To let it sit. Why---no idea. But I don't think for one second they don't know exactly what's in that field and where it came from.

Mountain out of a molehill. The Russians spew BS day after day regarding hundreds of situations and it's just ignored. Zhelensky/Rhexnikov make one yet to be verified mistake and it's a major issue repeated over and over again. In my opinion, it's the Russians intentionally driving the discussion to keep people "talking constantly on the incident" to diminish their credibility. Blowing up one single issue amongst hundreds of transparent and honest statements over the past 10 months to harm the Ukrainians. Don't fall for the BS.

Those that significantly change their support for Ukraine over Ukraine's reaction to this single situation were just waiting for an excuse to do so. From my perspective, Ukraine has been pretty forthcoming and transparent in their comments and approach throughout this war. And if Russian bloggers/press try to hammer Ukraine for this single instance they should look in the f'ing mirror as Russia lies and deflects about everything---even when it's blatantly obvious they are lying.

Zelensky amazes me. Here's a guy that only 4 years ago was an actor, comedian and businessman with a law degree and no foreign policy, governmental or military experience. But yet, he's leading one of the most complex, challenging globally high profile and difficult situations of this century. And he seems to be making all the right moves time and again. The way he handles himself, his words and quiet but confident demeanor continue to be on point. Yes, I'm sure he's getting expertise, coaching and direction from multiple sources---but he's choosing to listen and take advise from seemingly all the right people which is an art unto itself. And to think what his life is like on a daily basis, to have to be "on" month after month. The guy flat out has my respect and I hope to someday read his memoirs on from late 2021 until this ends.

nm

This seems staged, almost like actors in a high school play. Why this--why such a public announcement? Have we seen situations like this being broadcast by the Russians previously? Maybe it's just me, but this just seems like another BS poorly executed Russian video for some as yet to be known Russian ploy. That will fail.

A few random and simplistic comments from the non-military contingent that might be worthy of consideration, or not: 1. At some point, the cost of both the offensive and defensive components of this future battlefield as described in the last few posts is going to limit the number of participants. Like--China and the US and that's about it and, at some point, even those two may not have deep enough pockets. Other countries may be able to craft components but not an entire battlefield arsenal. Is it possible we've reached the point where pure financial considerations halt and/or limit what can be developed, tested and deployed in battle even if those weapons are known to be game-changers? 2. As Capt just mentioned, the undersea naval aspect of mass deployed weapons is a game changer. What if Taiwan simply mined the Taiwan Straits with massive and diverse underwater mines/torpedoes that could be maneuvered strategically? (Which may be already in place.) 3. How would a mass of drones handle a series of thermo barbaric or electro-magnetic blasts? Could a swarm be taken en masse instead of trying to nail each one individually? Could either of those techniques be used over an enemy's location before drones are launched to electronically disable them? As always, a HUGE thanks to all the participants on this forum---amazing and informative content.

Pot meet kettle. The irony...

Maybe it's just me, but I cut Kraze some slack. Because if my country was being raped, devastated, killed, kidnapped, tortured, etc. I'd probably be little biased and bigoted also. But very thankfully I haven't had to experience any of that during my lifetime. Walking in someone else's shoes and all that...

Once you've tapped the prison yards---where else do you go?

The video that was aired last night on The NBA on TNT. It may not be informative or add to this discussion, but maybe something we can each share with others to inform and remind them of what's at stake. The simple fact that this very popular show carved out this much time to dedicate to this message is important, that the subject is important.

The NBA on TNT just did a long gut wrenching piece with follow-up commentary on the War in Ukraine. (For the non-Americans, it is a very popular NBA pre-game show featuring Charles Barkley, Shaquille O'Neill, etc. Large audience that probably doesn't spend much time reading up on this war.) It featured one of O'Neill's former teammates who is Ukrainian and joined the fight. At the end, they listed a fundraising site to donate. This is the type of exposure that helps fuel American support for the Ukrainians. To keep the war front and center in the minds of the American taxpayer--the voters. It was a welcome site to see. I'll post a link to the video if I can find it.

ISW report on Putin's internal situation, long but interesting read: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-track-disappoint-multiple-competing-factions-russia Putin’s attempt to double down on his goals in Ukraine despite the obvious risks suggests he may have tied his regime’s survival to a victory or semblance of victory in Ukraine—potentially at the expense of Russia’s long-term strength. This doubling-down presents four key issues for Putin: Putin has created a requirement to constantly provide “victories” to the extreme nationalists, but has limited ability to do so; Putin is on a collision course with elements of his regime that may not want to wreck Russia’s remaining strength in pursuit of Putin’s objectives in Ukraine; Putin is increasingly projecting weakness through repeated bad decisions; and Putin’s limited value proposition to his base among the Russian population is diminishing.

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine. I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters. Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda. But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support. Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.

Stumbled across the following while looking at another site, thought it might be worth sharing. Of all the things to be learned from this war, how to amass, filter and take advantage of real-time open sourced information may be one of the most important. OSINT in Ukraine: civilians in the kill chain and information space OSINT shifted geopolitical sentiment toward Ukraine. Now members of the community are prosecuting the war through target acquisition. https://defence.nridigital.com/global_defence_technology_oct22/osint_in_ukraine

Two can play at this game. And my money is on the Ukrainians to more rapidly and efficiently restore power. Not to mention have more access to replacement/repair parts which could become a major issue if Russia is dependent on western sourced supplies. https://english.nv.ua/nation/major-fire-breaks-out-at-power-substation-in-russia-s-belgorod-ukraine-war-50276055.html