Billy Ringo

Russia may not be quite there yet, but Putin and/or his top generals may be. Their tenure and existence may be so tenuous that they realize they can't survive if Ukraine has any semblance of significant breakthrough.

And I'll add: $$$$ under the table = Change My Point of View

There is absolutely no sense of self-awareness as to how insane this is, and it seems to be pervasive within the Russian culture. "Narcissim: selfishness, involving a sense of entitlement, a lack of empathy, and a need for admiration, as characterizing a personality type." Narcissist are simply unable to understand or conceptualize that their behavior is abnormal or unacceptable to others. Thus--they lack the introspective ability to learn from their mistakes and correct their behavior. From everything I've seen over the past 18 months--this is Russia which makes it extremely difficult to engage in reasonable and productive discourse to try to put an end to their madness.

Would appear that Moscow now has some not so subtle reminders of the war at its' doorstep. Will be interesting to see if/how it might change internal support for the "SMO."

Supply chains: If the US military and military industrial base leverages supply chain expertise from the US public sector, (ie. retail, wholesale, logistics/FedEx/UPS, etc.), it would have a significant edge over other economies. What major retailers and niche specific retail optimization firms are doing in the US is pretty far ahead of the rest of the World. (The Nordics are very good also but, last I checked, they aggregate a lot of their resources/braintrust in the US.) And, the US is still the preferred destination point for the brightest engineers in this niche. (The single smartest/highest IQ person I've ever known works for Wal-Mart if that gives you any indication, they lured him away from a teaching spot at MIT.) The covid/supply chain disruptions of 2021/2022 threw a big wrench in the systems but wholesalers and retailers pretty quickly figured out how to adapt and work around the challenges. But the first word in my comment is "If", I have no experience or visibility as to whether the US military and military industrial supply chains are equal to the public sector or if they spend much time trying to learn from the public sector.

Trouble in paradise, at exactly the most inopportune time. (Sorry for the extra insert above, difficulty editing the post.)

I remember seeing one and it ended up being questionable, but I'm sure it has happened. Got a link to any of those?

More infighting within the Russian military sphere. How can the Russian MOD, Wagner, the Chechens, multiple PMCs, DPR, LPR, etc. co-ordinate actions, logistics and seamlessly work together as the Ukrainians increase pressure with their upcoming offensive? Who will stand and who will fold? Who gets ammo when it's running short? This just seems to be a sh!tshow waiting to happen.

Graham has been around a long time, he knows the game and what's at stake. My strong suspicion is that anything he says has already been vetted by both the Ukrainians and the US and strategically placed with intent.

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones. Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate. It was symbolic, not destructive. But yet, here we are debating war crimes. A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent. Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior. Let's put this in perspective. 5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months. There is no comparison. Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.

From the cheap seats regarding Putin: If anything, the opposite: he's least able to make decisions when they're hard 1/ https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89826 Coupled with Stanovaya's observation that his belief in being "right" will eventually lead to his ultimate goals without having to intercede or take certain actions, would make one believe that he would have a difficult time pulling the trigger on going nuclear. THAT would seem to be the ultimate hard decision. And based on her evaluation, that's not one Putin would be likely to make. Hope she's right on that one. ============== On this Memorial Day, a solemn thank you and reverence for those who gave all to preserve the liberties we have in the United States.

Have a feeling we'll see a lot of new "pieces" being used when Ukraine kicks off the offensive. Precision, disruptive electronic warfare and deeper range being just three of the surprises. There has been a lot of prep time and training over the last 6 months for the Ukrainians. Will be interesting to see how it's used.

The grand 2023 May Victory Day Parade has come and gone. Didn't take Kiev. Didn't even take Bakhmut after so much bluster, effort, war materials and lives lost. One single town of what used to be 73,000 people---and no victory. Nothing to celebrate on this glorious Russian day. No grand rallying cry. Just frustration, finger pointing and excuses. At some point, common sense would say the citizens, the military or someone would say enough is enough.

Or, what if Prigozhin is nothing more than a mouthpiece for Putin? Placing blame on the Russian military elite for defeat and lack of success. Since the start of the "special operation" Putin has dropped little negative comments about his military, he's fired and reshuffled generals on what seems like a weekly basis. Putin may simply be slowly building his off-ramp to get out of this mess by shifting blame on the Russian generals--hoping he can stay in power. (And the fact that Girkin is still alive makes me believe he's another Putin and/or KSB mouthpiece.)

Spend 10 minutes watching a group of 14-17 year old teenage boys play Call of Duty or a similar high-definition war/killing video game. Incredibly realistic and de-sensitizing.

Are we finally going to see, sometime in the next 30-90 days, what a drone swarm can actually do on the battlefield? Potentially a very significant event in the evolution of warfare.

Would it be possible to limit the name calling, "rural dimwits" "right wing looney's" and focus on the war in Ukraine? Thank you.

One of the preceding articles mentioned Condoleezza Rice and it reminded me that for someone who is very knowledgeable on Russian affairs, (and who I happen to respect a lot), we've heard very little from her over the past 13 months. I had to do some searching to even find anything, see below. Maybe it's because she's more of a conservative Republican, but I'd like to see her take a more prominent role in dealing with the Ukraine/Russia crisis. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/07/condoleezza-rice-robert-gates-ukraine-repel-russia/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/condoleezza-rice-former-secretary-of-state-face-the-nation-transcript-02-26-2023/ "We have- so I think we have to recognize that the Chinese-Russian relationship is perhaps more strategic than many of us had thought. That it really is a relationship that is aimed at the heart of U.S. power in the world. And that would say, then, these two are not divisible. So, if you want to say, let's just concentrate on the Indo Pacific, that's not going to work. And oh, by the way, many of our allies, Australia, Japan, fundamentally understand that. So, I would say to those who are going to run for office, be careful what you say. And I would just make one other point, if the American people see a world in which Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have won this engagement, this first volley, if you will, in the largest strategic picture, and they see that Ukrainian independence has been extinguished, and they know that the United States could have done something about it, I don't think that's going to be a very good message for a future president to have to deliver. "

Trump's support continues to decline. Those that never liked him--still don't like him. And many who supported him, (or voted for him only because they thought he was the better of two bad choices) have turned away from him. There are still some ardent Trump supporters and they get more notice than they deserve. But those are decreasing every day. I'm a conservative who voted for him twice and I, like most people I know, just want him to go away. He'll continue to bluster as long as it generates money and feeds his ego. But in my strong opinion he will never be president again.

The extreme differential between a drone's cost and effort to deploy compared to what it takes to defend against it still amazes me. And in some ways it scares me. Can any semblance of cost-effective drone countermeasures protect a target? And what happens, not if but when, the target becomes a civilian airplane, critical structure, crowd, sporting event, school, etc. Can't imagine thousands of criminals with recent military training/experience being suddenly released into the general population. This ain't gonna end well...

Russian tank factories idling....due to lack of certain components/parts.

Did Zelensky ever talk to Xi? Were supposed to talk after Xi's meeting with Putin but can't find anything on a call. And then there's this, Xi not wasting any time taking advantage of Russia's newfound problems. Et tu, Stan? Xi snubbed Putin after their summit, calling a meeting of Central Asian countries as part of an audacious power play https://www.yahoo.com/news/xi-snubbed-putin-summit-calling-123050319.html

Did someone say supply chain??? The challenge is not just what "products don't belong within a just in time model", but what products go into the products that make up the products....especially as it relates to machine, industrial, automotive, trucking, etc. parts. Most parts/components wholesalers don't operate on Just-in-Time and carry inventory bolstered by safety stock, (based on lead time variations and demand fluctuations). That inventory lasted about 6-9 months before the real effects of Covid/supply disruptions of 2021-2022 hit. After that, they were jumping through all kinds of hoops to source anything they could from anywhere. (Even buying assembled products to dis-assemble into in-demand components.) All it takes is one component of a semi-complex assembly to stop the entire production line. (Automotive, transmission, HVAC, industrial supply, etc. wholesalers may stock between 20,000 to 250,000 different products/SKUs in a single location.) As a side note, this is why I still think Russia is going to crash at some point as enough critical parts/components used in transportation/manufacturing will finally become unavailable, shutting down production lines.