FancyCat

Not sure if it was linked here before. It's pretty likely that NATO will pursue a conventional military response to any nuclear weapons use by Russia, unless it were some sort of all out attack and therefore MAD would be in play. Otherwise, as I see it, we would want nuclear use to be as reduced as possible, even if Russia were to launch a tactical nuke or two, our effort would be to simply punish Russia for the use of them, not normalize their use further. A big question would be whether we would target Russian nuclear launch facilities, but I think not since MAD would go into play, nor would we target command centers in Moscow either. Maybe, as mentioned previously, wiping out the Russian Black Sea Fleet, imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, or some other manner where NATO missiles and aircraft would pave the way for the victory of Ukrainian forces in all of Ukraine is on the table. In that sense, while Putin sought to use a tactical nuke to end or bring the conflict closer to a goal he would find amendable, the West's response would be to punish him with the inability to accomplish that goal, in a very quick and decisive manner if possible. It has occurred to me, with how U.S intelligence was showing the ability to read deep into Russian communications and get info from inside the highest levels of government, if Russia was the state behind the NS1 and NS2 destruction, did the U.S find out before it happened? The interesting thing is the pipelines were stuck in the EEZ of Denmark and Sweden, but i believe EEZs aren't considered full sovereign territory. I believe NS1 and NS2 are considered owned by Russia? Or at least majority owned by Russia. Had the attack been known to NATO, could NATO really interfere and stop the sabotage? Could Russia simply claim it was investigating their own pipelines?

There is very little point in discussing post-war, much less impossible scenarios. (Tbh I'm more concerned about the nuke threat) I don't even think Putin will fall due to losing in Ukraine much less collapse of the country due to defeat. What is BARS-13? Why is it called the Russian Legion in a army of a majority Russian? Has anyone actually been able to figure out if there is a defense line in Svatove? I know we know Ukraine was supposedly pushing units to Zaporizhia Oblast but it's strange how the same leaking of info isn't occurring in Lugansk oblast.

If you don't mind me asking, what divides the Allied occupation of Germany and the U.S occupation of Japan between this hypothetical occupation of Russia? You didn't address it when i noted previously that your assertion that the cultures of Germany and Japan were not changed by the occupiers was incorrect, but i feel like your misunderstanding the length and extent of the occupations of those two countries, so I do need to emphasize that the changes imposed on Germany and Japan included their cultures. I'm not sure where you are getting the erasure of Russian culture or cultural genocide from anything Haiduk or kraze has stated. For comparison, I'm going to use the examples of Germany and Japan, considered the most successful occupations in recent/modern times? If you disagree with the measures undertaken in both Germany and Japan and therefore in the hypothetical occupation of Russia, of course there is discussion on whether it was right or wrong, or beneficial or etc, but your assertion is that the measures or potential solutions to these measures would initialize a genocide of Russia and its people and culture yet we have Germany and Japan and their cultures thriving fine. As a aside, I need to point out Russia sought to conduct a genocide of Ukraine, is doing so in the occupied areas of Ukraine, and we have ample evidence had the invasion gone successfully, would have included the breadth of Ukrainian society across all of Ukraine! Suggesting that Ukrainians are seeking to conduct a genocide when the face of their goal is to prevent this happening again is akin to accusing Jews of planning a genocide of Germans once they had been defeated! I understand you saw genocide, but please, Haiduk and kraze both live in Ukraine, and almost wouldn't be communicating to us right now had things gone better for Russia. There are Ukrainian posters in occupied regions, who god forbid, may be in grave danger as a result of the forced mobilization. I'm not sure why you keep accusing Haiduk and kraze of being extremists but i think its very disrespectful considering the, by all accounts, near universal restraint by the Ukrainian government and armed forces in conducting themselves in defending against Russia! So in going over what Haiduk has stated, I don't want to spend too much time breaking down what is stated and their associated Nazi structures, as that would be a book, so I'll go very quickly and only provide a few examples. Educational System, one of the notable aspects that would require "Derashization" is the current learning warped in favor of narratives downplaying Soviet and Russian genocidal crimes, for example the Holodomor is not learned as a genocide of Ukrainians (and other peoples), but a more generalized Soviet failure to maintain food supply. Soviet massacres of Polish intelligentsia, and military officers, as well as the deportations of people from the Baltics are underplayed or ignored, instead a liberation narrative is expressed throughout Russian teaching. Research into Soviet archives which expanded in the 90s due to the fall of the USSR, into Soviet crimes has been suppressed and outlawed: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-russian-memory-project-that-became-an-enemy-of-the-state If we want to compare it to Nazi examples that required Denazification, I mean we have the stab in the back myth, the unloyalty of German jews to the state, the suppression of "Jewish science". Etc. Neo-imperial phylosophy - I am unsure what Haiduk means. Ideocracy - This is pretty evident, pluralist media, ceasing of the suppression of independent media in Russia, that has driven most of them to exile, or imprisonment in the example of Navalny. I'm not going to explain the Nazi equivalent, cause its pretty evident why this needs to be done, and the benefits of doing so. "Ruling and ordering" party - There is no legitimate opposition in Russia. Its suppressed, infiltrated, etc. Now, while we do have examples of former Nazis reentering politics, we should note their barring in the first place, the establishment of political parties not tainted by Nazism, and with those opposed to Nazism. And of course, Nazism itself is banned in Germany today. Orthodox church - The head of the Russian Orthodox Church expressing the view that the invasion of Ukraine is a holy and just war to protect Russia....do I have to explain why that needs derashization? For the example of Nazi interference into church life, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Nazi_Germany and again, Religious life is part of culture, Nazism sought to seize control of the religious institutions in order to better spread their ideology and the suppression of those deemed deviant. Again, I don't need to explain why Patriarch Kirill needs to be trialed. Cult of war and Great Victory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militarism#Germany poverty breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosperity nations - reforming the Russian economy and political structure that allows the wealth of the rest of Russia to get concentrated in oligarchs and a narrow slice of the elite and middle class. Stopping corruption. I wouldn't say there is a Nazi equivalent, but I would think that laws and reforms sought by the European Union in suppressing corruption would be aspects for adoption in Russia, and of course transfer of wealth and payments to depressed regions, programs for expanding access economically and socially. swaggering and feeling of own supremacy - this is something that isn't entirely successful, Japan and Germany have xenophobia, on the legal side, laws for the protection of minorities, laws encouraging indigenous languages, teaching of history that isn't erasing the imperialism and colonialism that occurred as Russia expanded its empire till its present borders. cruelty and inner aggression - there is something to be said about a culture where the broken soldiers are ill treated, and regarded as of little worth, and all societies will have their own failings and mistakes, there is a cycle of violence that exists in many communities, like in indigenous communities, that are being suppressed socially, culturally, and economically that cause those being suppressed to lash out. How you fix that? Well, breaking the social and cultural chains by allowing and encouraging indigenous learning and expression, and prioritizing the economic lifting of the indigenous and poor would help a lot. A lot of Militarism and supremacy was broken thru the process of total conquest and occupation of Germany and Japan. I would on the face of it, assume the same here. Again, this is completely hypothetical, and very unlikely to occur in any sense at all. But to be honest, its really strange reading Haiduk's list, comparing it to aspects of the Nazi or Japanese state, and then having you accuse him of extremism and seeking genocide of Russians is very whiplashing to me. I don't see anything that would constitute genocide in his list. Certainly, in the hypothetical scenario where Ukraine conquered Russia entirely, you could well argue that Ukraine would become genocidal and murderous and seek to bathe Russia in blood, but that is very different than accusing Haiduk of being a extremist. Unless you can explain how what he stated would lead to "social engineering" that would erase Russian identity, there is a lot of social engineering going on in Haiduk's post, but the amount of social engineering that occurred in post-war German and Japanese societies was intense, expansive, and arguably persists to today in the form of U.S cultural and military basing in both countries and yet no one could ever argue that Japanese culture is dead, or German culture is dead today. Like to expand on what the U.S attempted to do in the occupation reforms of Japan, referring back to this link: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/japan-reconstruction A reminder, Japanese culture and society that occurred in its fascist state, you can review here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statism_in_Shōwa_Japan 1. Japan's military was disbanded. 2. banning of individuals associated with the fascist regime from taking political office. 3. Land reform, I can think of almost no other reform that would cause economic, political, social change more than land reform, and it was undertaken in Japan and Japanese culture exists today perfectly fine. 4. Japan's constitution was changed. The divinity of the Emperor, a key aspect of Fascist Japan was tossed. Mentioning that you think Haiduk is suggesting indigenous re-educational camps as your take from reading his list is so whiplashing in the extreme, considering that Russification, the process of which Russia stripped and gained control over its indigenous populations used reeducation camps, and Ukraine is seeing that occur right now is astoundingly offensive. I'll stop here, feel free to elaborate in detail how you think what kraze or Haiduk has expressed is cultural genocide of Russians, but I don't see anything like that here. I can see certainly a opportunity for it occurring in the hypothetical scenario of the total conquest of Russia but I will express that there was belief among both the Japanese hardliners and Nazi leadership of the idea that Japanese society and German society were to be destroyed by the victorious powers.

I want to highlight this quote, cause its quite disturbing. When looking at comparisons to other wars and conflicts, its important to compare the goals and motivations of the fighters. From the face of it, Putin seems to dominate the conversation, one could get the sense that Putin is driving the war, and everyone else follows thru on what he states is the goal. Whether or not that is true or remains true as time goes on...we should probably understand that Russia is not truly suffering yet from the effects of the war, not really. At least not losses the elite can understand. Once that changes, maybe we will see more of a opposition. Of essential importance when analyzing the will of a country to fight on, we need to understand the perception of the combatants towards each other. While Putin's goals, motivations and mindset is important, so is the people under him, if we read the line from the article below, “The message is: don’t forget, Ukraine does not have the right to defeat us" we run not only into hubris, but a imperial mindset, where attitudes like the superiority of Russia will always prevail, and the idea of Ukraine as a entity appropriately deserving to sit down with and make some sort of middle peace, might clash against the idea that Ukraine's existence is not deserved, or that Ukrainians are going to break at some point.

ChrisO took the time to link to a tweet where a Russian shows off more decent conditions for the mobilized, so despite all the issues seen, we still have thousands of mobilized men who may be able to fight decently, have decent morale, at least until they start getting hit in Ukraine. I lost the tweet, but there was a tweet noting that entering Ukraine, the Russians were able to be fine with heading to the front, be somewhat confident, but upon experiencing combat, and being in Ukraine, changed their opinion and their morale sank.

Russian TV isn't gonna try and broadcast Zelensky's messages to Russia on primetime mind you. Something else to think about, we already had reports of looting and seizure in both occupied and recently occupied areas of Ukraine, if their ability to supply the mobilized units remains as bad as it is now, we are going to see that rise, and a according rise in hardship for the civilian population. While looting isn't isolated to one side in any war, there seems to be noticeable effort by Ukraine including both government and civil society to try and assist civilians in the front line zones. I'm sure the same exists on the Russian side, but if Russian reports indicating the requisition of supplies remain true and persistent, it won't be hard to argue that we are going to see Russian support erode even in the more longer occupied regions of Ukraine. Also, i want to emphasize that by no means, the Russian military should be resorting to such practices or lack of discipline, if you have been listening to Russians being called orks enough, maybe you forgot, but this practice is not supposed to occur in a professional, modernized military, certainly not one claiming to be the 2nd most powerful in the world. It boggles the mind that the analysts got this wrong. Certainly a lot of it was Russian PR, but inexcusable all the same. How many decisions by the West were done with a eye towards Russian military prowess, or the belief that whatever improvements in the Ukrainian military would pale to the might of the Russian military? I mean, as seen in the BBC Russia article i posted, the professionalization of the Russian military that Putin needed to illustrate the military standing of Russia, does not seem to have occurred. Our pre-invasion expectations of the Russian military were not purely quantity (at least i don't think so), but based on a force functional in SEAD, missile guidance, personnel who were trained on heavy equipment, etc, the mobilized personnel look....frankly, pretty worthless. Sound pretty worthless. What a big difference than pre-invasion. Certainly, despite the lack of personnel needed for any mid-term or long term control of Ukraine, I want to say we assumed the invasion force would crush Ukrainian organized resistance cause obviously, it had mass and training/tactics, it looks exceedingly clear that without tactics/training, their mass could not be used effectively against Ukraine, as much as Ukraine charted their own early victories, Russia has some near-fatal wounds sapping its ability to fight Ukraine.

There was always a emphasis by the revisionist historians of the Eastern Front following the release of Soviet documents in the 90s, to refute the portrayal of Soviet forces as offered by the narrative in the West, based on German records and experiences, as being very biased against the Soviets. I feel like they might be watching their work be somewhat washed away at least in popular perception. I feel like maybe Russia has adopted the some very wrong lessons from WW2, or at least some impressions of WW2 that were never true. David Glantz, author of When Titans Clashed, is still alive, I wonder how he feels watching this occur. And it goes without saying that the second best army in the world should not be doing this. Russia is not the second best army in the world, nowhere near that place.

not a whole lot of escalation reducing signals by Putin. its quite strange, to see Putin make a decision that is placing all bets on the table. Ukraine will no longer see pushback from its western partners for retaking the Donbas or Crimea, as Putin and Russia's reasoning was basically a one time get away card and now, it basically being as transparent as possible, Ukraine will be validated in seeking full return of occupied land. A face saving agreement for Crimea to be retained but the rest lost, after annexation is probably untenable for Putin (as he seems to intend), and therefore untenable for Ukraine to give up that land as well.

A bit more context to separatists statements. Not a lot of info, but some side stuff that is interesting. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/21/russias-rushed-referendums-a78856

BBC Russia with a interview of a contract (professional) soldier who returned from Ukraine, this one, Russia is attempting to mobilize him again. It is very long and details his experience in Ukraine, (he fought in the North during the advance on Kiev, then was withdrawn and redeployed to Izyum, then the battle for Sievierodonetsk, then Popasna before escaping to Russia) but I am particularly interested to see he is a example of the failed professionalization of the Russian military, a artilleryman who fired his first shell ever in Ukraine, despite signing his contract in Spring 2021. https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-63049481

Incorrect, culture was a key platform of both the Nazi and Japanese state and recognized as such by those they oppressed and the victors of WW2, https://blog.oup.com/2020/07/the-dividing-line-between-german-culture-and-nazi-culture/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statism_in_Shōwa_Japan In Japan, widespread reforms on every level of Japanese society were dictated by the occupation authorities: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/japan-reconstruction Germany, what is Denazification if not the modification of German culture? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification As we can see throughout history thru the many deportations of national and ethnic groups in both Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union, and now, with the deportations of Ukrainians into Russia without the ability for them to leave (loss of passports) or the ability (loss of funds), combined with being sent into remote regions of the country, a key aspect of Russian control over her lands and people is Russification. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russification What kraze references when speaking about "Russian ethnicity" is referring to this process of erasing the culture of the original person and people. And like i linked earlier, the process of ending Ukrainian language and teaching which is ongoing in the recently occupied regions of Ukraine are part of Russification, and so is kidnapping kids, Reposting again, Acting like Russia has a point in speaking up for Russian speakers the_Capt, acting like there is a risk of ethnic tensions that suggest maybe the Donbas needs to break away, is ignoring the very long history of Russification that now results in significant portions of Ukraine with Russian language speakers, and whom Russia now wages war upon to cynically "defend" them.

I want to just point out, along the lines of Haiduk's post, your assertion that you can't blame a entire people for the actions of their government, precludes something like German collective guilt being possible or correct to adopt. Significant parts of that were imposed on the German people by the victorious Allies. https://www.voanews.com/a/german-today-see-nazi-defeat-as-liberation/2753783.html

There is one remaining line, NS2, it is notable, if you want to reopen NS2, you would need to lift sanctions on it that was initialized from Germany. In contrast, NS1, Russia had ceased any supply of gas due to "maintenance". If Germany folds, it will need to publicly signal complete surrender to Russia. In contrast, NS1, is much more murky in terms of who gets blamed since Russia had stopped exports under various excuses. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/single-line-nord-stream-2-can-still-export-gas-analysts-say-2022-09-28/ If it was Poland or Ukraine or the U.S, you would destroy all 4, unless a attempt to do it failed.

The speech was in the context of Russia accussing Ukraine of suppressing the Russian language and Russian speakers. clown bastards. Extracted Quote from the Russian ambassador to the UN's speech, ugh:

Apparently this is a purchase order, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ I want to claw my eyes out but i suppose its fine.....maybe if Putin actually annexes the occupied regions, the U.S will suddenly release some more HIMARS immediately.

In international courts, if needed, the court can simply have Russian assets stored out of the country be seized to pay the penalties. However, contracts usually have clauses for natural disasters or terrorism.

On that note, we can see clearly, Russia’s will to win is not particularly high vs Ukraine considering the lack of mobilization till desperation and then a refusal to accept mobilization by the population. Despite the “threat to Russia’s existence” Ukraine poses supposedly to Russia.

What benefit? Inflation from rising fuel costs would outweigh any benefit from increased U.S market share of LNG (that are maxed out export wise anywhere) If Russia does not want to commit suicide, all it needs to do is leave Ukraine and I’m sure Europe will be more than happy to buy LNG and sell industry to Russia in like 5 years. I suppose the solution to ensuring Europe and Russia and Germany not commit suicide for U.S gain is probably a division of Ukraine? Ensure Russia gets its proper sphere of influence?

I’m not aware of any Polish or Ukrainian attempts to stop the flow of gas via the physical restriction thru the pipeline. Unless Russia is just betting on breaking the alliance via a very transparent attempt and expecting the West to split (which I wouldn’t be surprised Russia thinks would work)(considering their barely set up votes for annexation for example) this will fall on its face as well.

And as a twitter poster put it, Russia has been shooting itself in the gut all year long, if you still think Russia obviously wouldn’t want to destroy such a card like NS 1 and 2, I need only point out Russia decided to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine, so clearly their decision making center is screwed up to say the least. Or why reinforce Kherson. Why not mobilize earlier. Why say in full view of the world your goal is to annex Ukraine to return wayward Russians to the fold. And etc.