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Harmon Rabb

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Posts posted by Harmon Rabb

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, poesel said:

    Why Ukraine hasn't cleared Transnistria is something I don't understand. Technically, Ukraine would attack Moldova if they invaded Transnistria, but I don't think Moldova would mind.
    This is just another piece of Russian influence that poisons its surroundings.

     

    NEW | WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.

     

    I think Ukraine wants to maintain it's moral high ground in this war and will only move into Transnistria if Moldova gives Ukraine their seal of approval.

    My guess is the reason Moldova has not given said approval is because Russia may use it as a reason to declare war on that country. Don't think Moldova's AD systems are up to the task of defending against Russian missiles and drones, more than enough of those have already landed in that country without a war even being declared.

    All of this reminds me of a meme I had saved on my hard drive since May 2022, guess it is relevant again.

     

    transnistria.jpg

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Quote

    Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev announced the delivery of 100 armored personnel carriers (APC) "in a few days," the Bulgarian channel BTV reported on Feb. 28.

    "The armored personnel carriers are still in Sofia. They will be transferred in a few days, but I will not say the precise dates," Tagarev said.

    The Bulgarian parliament approved the supply of 100 armored vehicles from the Interior Ministry's stocks to Ukraine last December, together with armaments and spare parts, free of charge. The decision to send the APCs had to override a veto by Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.

    The delivery of armored vehicles was previously delayed due to high shipping costs. Tagarev said the Bulgarian side waited for NATO partners to help with the expenditures for transport.

    The Bulgarian defense minister also said Bulgaria has already provided Ukraine with $47 million in aid.

    Bulgaria and Ukraine agreed on armored personnel carriers' delivery in July 2023 after Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Bucharest.

    According to Denkov, the Bulgarian Armed Forces had never used these APCs as its soldiers had not had the required training.

    Bulgaria has become increasingly supportive of Ukraine as the war has progressed. Denkov's government took a decisively pro-Kyiv stance and committed arms supplies to Ukraine despite opposition from Radev.

    Bulgarian defense minister: Bulgaria to send 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine 'in few days'(KyivIndependent)

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Harmon Rabb

    2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

     

    So... It's so great and stealthy it had to be escorted by a flight of Su35s... And it's oh-so-special Missile faceplanted into a field. 

    Pretty sure the 35s were intended as meat shields to literally take a Missile hit, not  just engage UKR aviation /AD. 

    Very interesting news.

    I'm curious if the Su-57 is going to be making regular appearances or is this just Russia showing their new toys to the cameras, to save face because as we all know the skies over Ukraine have not been so friendly to them recently.

    Remember that time we heard something about the T-14 Armata showing up on the battlefield and did not hear much about it again?

    Anyway,If the Russians do keep using Su-57s this would be a good opportunity to gain some information on how they perform in combat for the future.

    Good reminder to send the AFU more AD systems, they sure have used Patriot well so far. 😎

    Edit: Yeah, this looks like a made for the cameras propaganda stunt like the T-14.

    Quote

    Additionally, it has been noted that the Russians utilized the newest Su-57 in a missile attack on Ukraine to make a military propaganda film. This film is expected to be showcased as evidence of the “successful” development of the Russian defense industry ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in Russia.

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Harmon Rabb

    2 hours ago, omae2 said:

    The amir weitmann video is not form today its from October or November. Just saying.

    Correct, I remember when that older video from a Russia Today broadcast was first posted here last October.

    But Tendar was clearly writing about the new video in today's Tweet, as per the long quote I posted.

    I do find the response in the new video more interesting. Because it is coming from an Israeli representative at the UN, which makes this statement more official.

     

    While I am here, here is another video of a RU tank being demilitarized. We can never get enough of those here. 🙂

    And some Wagner dirtbag was reportedly eliminated in Russia.

     

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Quote

    Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, delivered a speech in which he totally torched Russia. He not only announced that Israel is going to provide an early warning systems against missiles for Ukraine but also called Ukraine an “ally”. He also equates Russia with Hamas and attacks Russia for hosting another visit of Hamas in Moscow.

    You can be sure that this speech comes in coordination with the Israeli Prime Minister. It clearly marks the end of the relationship between Putin and Netanyahu. This whole instance reminds  when Amir Weitmann delivered his viral statement in RussiaToday where he announced that “Russia is going to pay the price” (check out the repost). I think we are witnessing what this means.

     

    Israel’s pro-Ukraine position will also have ramifications in the US and the ongoing discussion for military aid.

    Some of the strongest language I have heard from Israel directed at Russia so far.

     

    8

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Harmon Rabb

    2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

    Lol check out the decals on the side of his plane... 

     

    Petr Pavel is one of the coolest world leaders serving in office right now.

    He reminds me of those Presidents you would see in 90s movies like Independence Day and Air Force One. But as much as I like Harrison Ford he is just an actor, Petr Pavel is a real hero. 😎

    9

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Harmon Rabb

    1 hour ago, Grigb said:

    Quick question - do we have topic regarding Israel? I am subscribed to the RU channel of David Gendelman. He writes short but informative posts that clarify some aspects of Israel operation. 

    This forum had two topics related to that conflict, both got closed because the conversation got heated.

    https://community.battlefront.com/topic/143010-how-hot-is-israel-gonna-get/

    https://community.battlefront.com/topic/143009-israel-war-thread/

    I think Steve made it clear he does not want that conflict brought up on this topic. Unless it directly impacts the war in Ukraine.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    True on capacity/capability, however, this war is two years old.  Even if Russia was in denial for the first year, why did they not go for an overmatch mobilization a year ago?

    I think Russia lacks the cohesive will to mass mobilize and Putin knows it.  This is why he is pulling wasters, criminals and merchs.  He cannot mobilize 2 million men without hitting the Russian people where they live.  He can’t do that without convincing them that they must fight or Russia is lost.  Even the most nationalistic twit in Russia can see that this is a discretionary expeditionary war.  Ukraine is not central to the survival of Russia as a nation state.  It is central to survival of Putin, but that only goes so far.

    So back to western involvement - this is a tricky and slippery slope.  We know Putin is already saying we have divisions in Ukraine, but he also knows large swaths of the Russian people don’t believe the state information apparatus.  If we go and give them hard proof the costs could be significant, and I am not talking about nukes.  If Russia buys into this war fully we could see significant mobilization.  Given how fragile western support is, that could be a serious problem.

    The horrible truth is that Ukraine is important, but not that important to a significant swath of the West.  The political levels in the West have been managing this pretty much from day 1.  The Russian invasion is an attack to global order but many westerners ask “ok, but what has the global order really done for me?”  And given the wing nut drive bys we have seen here on the forum trying to explain that to them is tilting at windmills.

    So the western powers have been slowly leaning in and pushing envelopes.  Pushing hard enough to slowly boil Russia but not so hard as to get them unified.  And Russia has been doing the exact opposite - drag this thing out until we change the channel.  Make it look like Iraq or Afghanistan, even if it costs Russia another problem 100k dead.  And it will all come down to who gives out first.  In the West it will end with a whimper as we run back to NATO lines and shore up a new Iron Curtain.  For Russia it could be a brutal collapse with a lot of nuclear weapons in the wind (the other awkward reality those who want to see Russia collapse never seem to answer).

    Down the middle of this entire mess is a very small window of “just enough, just in time” which I suspect we are really aiming at.

    Just on the subject of the collapse of Russia.

    Personally I believe I will see parts of the Russian Federation break away or even the outright collapse of Russia in my lifetime. Honestly I think it can happen regardless if the collective West wants it to happen or not. A geopolitical YouTube channel  Good Times Bad Times did a very good trilogy on this hypothetical event, I think I linked it before here. Here is a link to the first of the three videos for those who want to check it out. Should We Prepare For (the Next) Break-up of Russia?

    I really hope our governments are also taking this possibility seriously not just because of the nuclear weapons. If The European Union thought they got a lot of refugees from the various wars in the middle east or even this war, I could only imagine how many Russians would be trying to enter the European Union if the RF started collapsing.

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Captain Pletenchuk shares some information on the BSF having issues using Caliber missiles.

    Quote

    They have big problems": the spokesman of the Navy explained why the Russians almost do not use "Caliber" for strikes on Ukraine

     

    The main ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, carriers of cruise missiles, are still afloat and can still fire on the territory of Ukraine. However, they no longer use Caliber for strikes.

     

    Spokesman of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk

    https://uatv.ua/uk/korabli-ne-maye-sensu-popovnyuvaty-pletenchuk-rozpoviv-pro-stan-chornomorskogo-flotu-rf-i-sytuatsiyu-iz-zavantazhennyam-kalibriv/

    believes that the Russian Federation has problems with "Kalibra" due to military logistics. Carriers can be loaded with such missiles in Crimea, but the occupiers have recently been trying to avoid the peninsula. Details

     

    As we can see, they have not used cruise missile carriers for a long time. The only confirmed salvo, four missiles from the Admiral Makarov frigate, was after the destruction of the Caesar Kunikov. This is such an act of desperation, they could not remain silent in this situation. But having there are theoretically eight missiles on board, he used only four. This also says a lot," says Pletenchuk.

     

    The fact is that their Novorossiysk military base is not designed to load Kalibr missiles; the Russian Federation can equip its ships with such ballistics only at the Sevastopol base. "And it still remains a problem for them," remarked the captain of the 3rd rank.

     

    "The aggressor perfectly understands the situation for a long time. Therefore, he takes appropriate measures, such as dispersal of ships and boats, change of base points, periodic redeployment of ships between base points, primarily Novorossiysk, Sochi, Tuapse," Pletenchuk explained.

     

    According to him, the Russian Federation has already lost a third of its fleet in the waters of the Black Sea. "It makes no sense to replenish (ammunition), because even those ships that are available now, they do not fully fulfill the tasks for which they are there," the military officer added

     

    In the morning of February 14, people woke up to  powerful explosions in the temporarily occupied Crimea . Later  it became known that the GUR and ZSU attacked the Russian large amphibious assault ship "Cesar Kunikov" with naval drones. He found a hole in the port side, lay on his side, and then went to the bottom in the Alupka area.

     

    https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/pishov-na-dno-u-chornomu-mori-urazheno-rosijskij-vdk-tsezar-kunikov-okupanti-pidnyali-v-povitrya-ka-27-zmi.htm

     

    Meanwhile, the experts told  how many VDK remained with the occupiers in the Black Sea after the loss of "Caesar Kunikov".

    https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/skilki-vdk

     

     

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Harmon Rabb

    2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Fox News, oddly enough, is about to do the sort of interview that Carlson was ideologically and morally too cowardly to do... frontline interview with Zelensky:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4480982-fox-interview-zelensky-bret-baier-front-lines-of-war/

    Steve

    Can't say I'm surprised that it is Bret Baier...In a good way. 🙂

    When this craziness started in 2022 interestingly enough Fox News was my primary source for following this war, I thought they did a good job of covering it from the ground and I liked Bret Baier's presentations from the studio.

    Can't say I felt the same way about what Tucker was saying later in the day, seeing good coverage earlier in the day and watching Tucker repeat his obviously pro-Russian talking points was like watching two different networks. It was just a bizarre feeling that I will never forget.

    Good to see Bret is still trying to give President Zelenskyy the voice he deserves. If I'm not mistaken one of Zelenskyy's first interviews on American television when the war started was with Bret.

    Edit: Maks 23 just posted a preview of the interview.

     

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Harmon Rabb

    4 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

    Mr Murz, he dead

    Excellent Heart of Darkness reference, I remember reading that Joseph Conrad novel back when I was a school kid. 🙂

    Anyway on to the subject. I do find it interesting how the usual pro-Russian suspects like that lowlife David Sacks as well as the convicted sex offender Scott Ritter( I hope you read this David and Scott, I know this topic gets around to some interesting places 😎), are gloating about Avdiivka.

    Yet an actual Russian source who is much more familiar and connected to the war, literally killed himself over this great Russian victory.

     

    7

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Harmon Rabb

    31 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

    I had never seen him before. Was he a reskin of a previous poster? Pretty good idea of whom... 

    FF has the distinction of being the first and only user on this forum that I placed on my ignore list.

    I remember he did briefly rename himself to "kevinkin replacment" ...A bad omen for the future of his account in these parts of the interwebs. But I don't think it was Kevin, his style was different.

    Good riddance.

    1
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