billbindc

I hear that a lot outside of this forum. The problem for Putin is that wmd'ing or nuking Ukraine loses him every last bit of support he is currently receiving from China/India/etc and in return, he gets an irradiated/spoiled mess that is a net negative in terms of security, trade, etc. The point of all of this was to aggrandize power. Escalating does the opposite, permanently.

"Reconstituting"

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-china-state-refiners-shun-new-russian-oil-trades-teapots-fly-under-2022-04-06/ Also, don't be fooled by current energy purchases. People in the shipping industry are saying that Sinopec and other refiners are getting extremely leery Russian cargoes. They are already planning to not reup contracts (see above) but also may drop current contracts due to difficult to square insurances issues. In other words, even the Chinese are going to untangle themselves from Russian gas/oil in the next month or so.

What the economists who aren't dazzled by the topline number are saying is that supporting the ruble now is going to make things far worse in terms of inflation and other economic damage later. As usual, Putin is robbing Pyotr to pay Pavel.

What is the general reaction here to the idea that Russia has some sort of grand offensive planned in the east? Do they possess the logistics, the manpower and the morale for it? I keep reading Ukraine warning about it and hearing that US officials are worried. Thoughts?

The simplest way to resolve the question is to simply look at what they are saying themselves. RIA Novosti is a regime mouthpiece and what it's spouting isn't an appeal to the "revolution" or a call for the rise of the oppressed masses. Instead, it's calling for Russian domination and Ukrainian subservience in overt ethnic terms. Trust them when they tell you who they are: https://news.yahoo.com/genocide-masterplan-experts-alarmed-after-kremlin-intellectual-calls-for-cleansed-ukraine-182354392.html

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukraine-war-phase-two?s=r Freedman has been relentlessly on point throughout. His latest:

The term you are looking for is Rindersteak Nazi ("Beefsteak" - as in black on the outside/red on the inside) which applies to those ex-Social Democrats or Communists that joined in large part because they were attracted to Strasser's more economically radical version of Nazism. They were very common in the SA with predictable results on the Night of the Long Knives.

Default in 3, 2, 1....

Worth noting a broad but extremely important distinction: Communism s is based on the idea that men are perfectible. Fascism is based on the idea that men are defined by their intrinsic characteristics. Both resemble each other in application but those distinction above leads to very significant practical differences. One obvious example would be that in a fascist state, private property is allowed to flourish as long as it serves observes the ethnonationalist priorities of the regime. Conversely, in a communist state, private property is only allowed to the degree that it does not contradict the ideological ones. Another obvious example (which obscures the left/right distinction) is that Communist states are based very firmly on an ideological foundation. Fascist states only require a more or less finely graded identitarian set of rules and then can be fairly pack-rat about everything else. The above examples show how crucially important those basic foundations are because they have enormous downstream effects...not least who gets killed/invaded/pogromed and why. I would strongly suggest reading Robert Paxton's "Anatomy of Fascism" for a fuller exegesis of the topic.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/french-election-markets-skittish-as-far-right-candidate-le-pen-closes-gap.html On the political front, Putin has a potential windfall in the French elections if LePen wins. At a stroke, the EU is in disarray and France becomes an active stumbling block to stopping Russian ambitions.

We live in an era of Strasserism, 'social fascism' claims and what used to be called the 'red-brown alliance'. In the end, it's all about opposition to liberal democracies which is why the fight for Ukraine is of outsized importance. Reactionary populism and revanchism must be stopped there or we'll be fighting at worse odds to stop it everywhere else.

A friend says it reminded her father (who group up in the heyday of the USSR) of this youth. Not in a good way.

An economist friend says it is inevitable at some point and the Bucha evidence simply gave the US government another opportunity to bring the date forward: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-cuts-off-russian-reserves-014958986.html So...will it happen this week? Maybe not but give it another month or so.

This. If you think "wolf warrior diplomacy" is a sign of a confident, rising power, I have bridge in Guangzhou to sell you. "By 2050 China’s population will be 4% lower than today, while it’s working-age population will have declined by 12%. At that time roughly 36% of its population will be over the age of 60 and nearly 14% under the age of 15." https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3039064/chinas-ageing-population-prompts-plan-deal-looming-silver-shock Things have gotten *worse* for China demographically since this was written in 2019. They best way to understand China under Xi is that the leadership sees a closing window of opportunity as growth levels off and the population hasn't yet begun to plummet. They are going to grab what they can as long as the price isn't too high in order to buttress their position. It's a fortress mentality, not a global domination mentality.

A very wise person used to tell me "dictatorships looks rock solid until they don't". That applies to Putin was well. The inverted pyramid of the Russian state rests on him. One stroke, one debilitating medical episode and the entire edifice begins to shake. There's a reason he's clearly so terrified of getting covid:

The 503rd has denied it. There's also the involvement of Khadyrov which is in and of itself a reason to doubt the veracity of the claim. There also seem to be some red armbands (separatist marker) jammed into pockets. Mark this one as doubtful.

The Russian obsession with the incredible and arcane abilities of the British Secret Service is one of those cultural tics that underlines how little, from regime to regime, changes in Russian political culture.

http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Russia-Ukraine-War/c916a59a35d54ad1a619d0f00a233464/2/0

As a strategic matter, it's entirely idiotic. Already, the word is that these war crimes show that Russia must be defanged in a definitive way which bluntly put means that Western support for a long war in the east of Ukraine just ramped up considerably and pressure from some to get Ukraine to take a bad deal has virtually evaporated. Putin's raising the costs on Russia both in this war and for long after for no appreciable gain.

Russian income is quite uneven by region:

To add to the absurdity, the "woke brigade" in DC is beating down the doors of the administration to give more aid to Ukraine. Please stop the trolling, you just look dumb.

An interesting outcome to the virtual certainty that war crimes were committed is that what hesitation there was to rearming the Ukrainians for the next phase is gone. The limits on jets will continue probably (as a demonstration of restraint) but it's going to be anything goes on tanks, AD, etc. The language it's being discussed in has already changed appreciably.

Posting Soldatov again as I think he is the best on reading the tea leaves on Putin's judgement, the state of play in the Russian (almost wrote Soviet!) power vertical and where this is all going: https://octavian.substack.com/p/the-bear-breaks-down-andrei-soldatov?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

https://mwi.usma.edu/the-spear-training-civilians-for-war-in-ukraine/ Quite interesting interview with Matthew Gallagher. Really worthwhile to note his description of the intensity and efficiency of the Ukrainian organization he witnessed.