billbindc

I think the universe of Russian 'allies' is pretty much defined by countries with high levels of corruption and/or low levels of civic culture. By definition they aren't thinking much in the long term because they don't have much incentive to do so. And before anyone asks...no, Chinese political and strategic culture is *not* especially noted for long term planning or any special ability to carry such out. That's an orientalist fantasy created, ironically, when China was at its weakest.

https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html Note, the retired colonel who threw cold water on the Ukraine invasion has been doing so since February 3rd at least. He's no dissident and it's interesting that he's not only not being silenced, he's getting on state tv. That doesn't necessarily mean there's a change in policy imminent but it certainly means a faction with power has his back.

Steve, May I suggest that you need a button?

The old sovok with the white hair and beard in that clip is a Russian Duma member who has been making incredibly blood curdling claims on Russia state tv about using nukes, eradicating Ukrainians, etc. He remains respectfully silent throughout a damning and pretty factual statement that Russia is unlikely to win easily if at all. Interesting.

I think the way I would put this is that Putin's approach is instrumental and but not just in a direct sense of immediate benefit to Russia. What he's also looking for a more general hostility to the international status quo. Thus, Russia can be friendly with Cuba, Orban's Hungary, China or Nicaragua. The ideology, such as it is, is rejection of American hegemony and the rules based order. In that sense, those allies are not useful idiots. They *know* why they are doing it, whether those reasons are Cuban fears of being overwhelmed by Miami, Venezuelan paranoia about regime change or Hungarian ethnic resentment and annoyance at those irritating EU penalties for rank corruption. Essentially, all of these regimes want freedom of action without consequence.

Chemical weapons are simply not fit for use in a war like that in Ukraine. Russia would have as hard a time dealing with them on the as the UA would given their lack of maintained NBC gear, their lamentable logistics and the depth of Ukrainian defenses. Use of tactical nukes would create similar problems in the field and make a direct NATO intervention imminent. It would also completely isolate Russia internationally and likely trigger a complete trade embargo. Also...say that Russia used a nuke on Odessa the the Ukrainians simply refused to give in? Politically, I don't see how Zelensky would or could. In that situation, Russia will have committed an unforgiveable act, would have to take all the heat it would entail and it wouldn't be any closer to winning the war.

Like any proper Irishman, Montgomery Meigs knew how to deliver a proper FU.

The statue of General McPherson in McPherson Square in Washington DC was cast using the metal from cannon captured during the siege and subsequent burning of Atlanta. Pretty much the last word in showing who won without all of the flowery bull**** and hypocritical rhapsodizing one finds further….South.

There's a story from the the 90's that a Western diplomat was talking to a Russian diplomat and said (to paraphrase): "One of the problems Russia has is that Eastern European countries are afraid of you." The Russian diplomat's response was; "Shouldn't they be?".

Russian angst about its place in the world has a funny way of looking exactly like the depredations of an inept, hegemonic kleptocracy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-russians-retreat-ukrainian-residents-trickle-back-to-devastated-villages-near-kharkiv-11651839798?st=veyqqz0eavhq17o&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

We react this way because your default position is that exercises of Russian power to secure hegemony over your neighbors are all justifiable and reactions by your neighbors to restrict that power are by definition aggression. It would be more honest to just say you are at heart a Putinist and leave it at that.

"We liked you until you stopped Slobodan Milosevic's ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia" is not the own Russians may think it is.

Legal structures only really matter to the regime to the degree that they affect legitimacy in the centers of power. Coopted bourgeois in Moscow aren't going to give a damn if boys in the Caucasus are going to war while their sons are not. Is that sowing the seeds of bigger peripheral problems later? Probably. But at this point, Putin is reduced to accepting future crises if only to delay the onset of the present one.

Word is that they are. I suspect that the actuality will be somewhat different than the announcement...as in 'mobilization' will mean very different things in different regions. In larger terms, Russia is going to do exactly what it is already doing in relation to the sanctions regime. That is, Putin will attempt to put off the inevitable by expending resources right away knowing that unless a deus ex machina appears Russia will suffer more for it later. Just imagine what hyperinflation and a bleeding ulcer of a war are going to do to the sinews of Russian state?

NATO doesn't want to "partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons". It doesn't have the power to do that and, unlike some, it tends to do things with its military that it is actually capable of doing. What NATO wants is for political disagreements between states to be settled without resort to force. Russia clearly prefers force to accommodation with its neighbors. That's why we are where we are today.

Caesar in action?

There's an old saw..."those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities". The absurdity that you believe is that there are two realities with equal legitimacy. That's simply not true. The evidence of the atrocities in Bucha exists. The evidence of random shelling of obviously civilian targets in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odessa and elsewhere exists. Evidence of some mustache twisting Western plot to destroy the Russkiy Mir does not. The reality is that your leader started this war in the pursuit of Russian hegemony and your badly trained, led and used army has committed enormous war crimes. As a Russian friend of mine put it; "****...this time *we're* the Nazis in '41". And yes...many, many Russians realize this. I hope you can find your own way there as soon as possible. Russians acquiesced to Putin's rotten silovik regime and only Russians can put a final end to it.

Oh come off it: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/bucha-ukraine-bodies.html

I can't find it at the moment but I've seen discussions to the effect that all but a small proportion of wheat is actually consumed in the country that produces it. So when you see "Russia and Ukraine produce 18% of world exports!" you are really seeing a headline of about 3-4% of the world's actual yearly production of wheat and that's simply a reflection of who produced what at the price for what the market was then. This applies to neon, sunflower oil, etc. These countries were producing the export percentage they were because the were available and cheapest. This time next year, someone else will be selling what's available and next cheapest. Beware the Whole Earth Catalogue approach to analysis. It's an inapt way to describe the world.

Don't believe the hype: https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/news/russia-ukraine

I really don't think we need to go further than Russian state tv itself to figure out the current and deeply unfortunate state of the Russian zeitgeist:

My attempt at pith on this topic is always to opine that the American Century (now in the dance remix version) will not die of natural causes, it will commit suicide. I think we just backed away from the ledge for the moment but time will tell.

I agree but those reactions have costs and are not simple to carry out. The most obvious example is the staying power of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. People looking at recent declines in dollar usage say "Aha! It's happening!" but don't note that most of the decline in usage is merely transferred to other currencies strongly linked to the US dollar and China can't really change it because PRC wants to have complete control over its own currency for domestic political purposes. In short, China has at least as many structural constraints as we do.