billbindc

Well, we don't know yet. But wars are won or lost when one side loses the will. As demonstration of will and as a blow against Russian expectations of success it seems like it's going pretty well so far. What Putin has sold Russia so far is the idea that the three day operation can still be won if they just stick with it long enough. If that pitch collapses, the war is pretty close to over. We will see.

I will be beyond surprised and impressed if Ukraine can actually hold onto the majority of what they are currently seizing. It would suggest a manpower maskirovka of quite large proportions with war ending capacity. Would be very happy to be wrong.

The best word is chevauchée. A raid to compel, discomfit.

I think they prefer a Harris administration because at least it is predictable. Below all of the rhetoric, I think China understands that the US has a much wider margin of error than it does. Trump will lurch about trying to impose tariffs and mucking things up in general which introduces a level of instability that has much higher tail risk than any short terms gains that the PRC might make while the US can and likely would recover its power to challenge it.

Putin needs Trump's help to win in Ukraine and the very best way he could have helped him would have been to refuse to make a deal with anyone but Trump. Instead, he made one with the POTUS whose aid translated into the death of 500k Russian troops. That's weakness.

A pretty interesting list, including some internal adversaries that Putin thinks are quite dangerous (Kara-Muza prominently). Can be read multiple ways but I would highlight the possibility that Putin is both no longer confident that Trump will win and is now beginning to think about negotiating.

Well...he had a nuclear war that affected the plotline. The idea of a slamhound racing through the streets of Delhi keyed to pheromones was way ahead of it's time.

I'm sorry to tell you that pretty much the only thing William Gibson missed was cell phones.

My personal use case is long range autonomous precision strike drones keyed to the hum of transformers, truck engines, turbines, refinery crackers, etc, etc. And ultimately heartbeats, of course.

The desire to replace Sherman, Blinken, etc while always making her support very clear to Kyiv is strongly predictive. You don't plan fire those guys if you think they are doing too much.

The Yamato before the Japanese realized the need for anti-aircraft defenses: The Yamato after the Japanese realized the need for anti-aircraft defenses: A useful way to illustrate the response when heavily invested legacy systems attempt to adjust to disruptive realities and the likeliest outcome thereof.

Concur. If Trump wins a trifecta, Ukraine policy won't reflect Congressional preferences or whatever Pompeo thinks he's selling. It will be a question of whim, revenge on perceived enemies and personal affinity.

Blinken, Sherman and others are out if she wins. What I sense is that the US will go in for the kill with four more years of runway when Russia has probably at best two. Nothing too dramatic will occur but aid will be stepped up and Ukraine will get more freedom of action. Also, countermeasures to Russian espionage, sabotage and political influence will be increased.

This article gets the crux of what's going on: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2024/06/25/kyiv-isnt-sweating-that-trump-ukraine-plan-00164883 Essentially, Pompeo and others are laying out plans that they say will be a Trump administration approach to Ukraine. In reality: “We believe it’s just the race of folks who want to make it look like they are setting new Trump’s foreign policy agenda and reminding [people] about themselves,” a person close to President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s office told NatSec Daily. “The perception is that nobody actually knows what Trump’s approach will be." My personal take is that Trump has continually advertised his affinity for Putin and has a fatally strong sense of his own dealmaking prowess. He has said he will "solve" Ukraine immediately if he wins and there is no reason to think that won't entail selling it down the river. His commitment to the perception of being a dealmaker is far more important to him than what such a move would do to Ukrainians, NATO or American interests.

I have been to all of the above and much more and respect those beers...but there is very little experimentation and lets be honest there is nothing new. Just like the NATO response to Russian aggression (not true but consider it a nod to the gods of topicality).

Sir, I've drunk deep of the black in the Sunflower bar as the flags go marching by. As a single beer, in that place, it is hard to better. But for variety, experimentation and innovation American beers are simply the best in the world right now. It's ok though...even France is catching up.

I am a well paid apparatchik of the American imperial project in a city full of delightful breweries. So no...just reacting to the normal rhetorical violence applied to Fukuyama's thesis.

“But supposing the world has become “filled up”, so to speak, with liberal democracies, such as there exist no tyranny and oppression worthy of the name against which to struggle? Experience suggests that if men cannot struggle on behalf of a just cause because that just cause was victorious in an earlier generation, then they will struggle against the just cause. They will struggle for the sake of struggle. They will struggle, in other words, out of a certain boredom: for they cannot imagine living in a world without struggle. And if the greater part of the world in which they live is characterized by peaceful and prosperous liberal democracy, then they will struggle against that peace and prosperity, and against democracy.” ― Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man Also American beer is, with some salient exceptions (aka Saison Dupont) pretty much the best in the world and obviously that can only be decided by a proper drinking session. Consider the gauntlet dropped. Happy to buy to educate.

Sure. But it keeps me in beer so....

I call a Fukuyama Violation. Rule 1202a-b: “When references to Fukuyama refer to the misreading of him rather than the fact that he actually predicted where we are now, all such violators will send billbindc one (1) six (6) pack of an unfiltered American style IPA (non-fruit forward) upon notice of said violation.”

Interesting: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/15446266

"As President Biden often says, 'The United States will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.' We will not waver." (VP Kamala Harris, 2/19/23) Act accordingly.

That is precisely my analysis of the outcome.

I think it’s important to note that while rank and file Republicans are at worst split on Ukraine, within the most politically active MAGA folks there is outright disdain for Ukraine and overt admiration for Putin. It has gone beyond reflexive politics. They see Putin as a strong man of the sort they would like in the US in Trump. It has become ideological and will not ease with a Trump victory.

Ohio has not been a swing state in over a decade and Vance ran far behind other Republicans in the state. He’s there to pull in Silicon Valley money (i.e. Peter Thiel). As to Ukraine, I’d be happy to be surprised but every indication is that first sanctions on Russia would be lifted and then a deal forced on Kyiv.