billbindc

If you are watching the back and forth between Zelensky and Zaluzhny today, I would warn against the way in which most commentary is treating if as if it's a football game...as they do much of what has happened in the war so far. Shashank Joshi at the Economist is going to drop an article soon that looks more deeply at the reasons and the forces motivating the move. I would recommend it in advance.

Or Crazy Ivan's....

If the reporting that the lethal drone attack on Tower 22 is correct then the Shahed followed in an American surveillance drone in order to evade detection and interception. That was either blind dumb luck or lessons being learnt by the Russians are being passed on to Iranian client militias in the ME. I'm not a big believer in luck.

Seems like an under the radar thing right now that Russia is taking exceedingly lopsided losses:

Kofman: https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/

You have to admire how well McConnell plays the game. The 'leak' from yesterday is already chastening the anti-Ukraine aid folks.

I would say there's about a zero percent chance of Girkin being allowed out in the wild with any troops.

We should be clear about what's happening here...and note I am politically an opponent of and no fan personally of Mitch McConnell: McConnell has been trying very hard to get a deal through that addresses the border 'crisis' and funds Ukraine. Trump has become the nominee in all but name and Trump is threatening Senators who make any deals with Biden that might hurt his chances in November. So, McConnell has realized his own caucus is weak at the knees and a linked deal might not get through. His solution is the delink the deals so that Senators can bow to Trump on the border but maybe get Ukraine money through...and he's done it in a way that makes it clear that the fault for all of it lies with Trump. In short, he's maneuvering to keep aid alive while making sure Trump pays a political price for his obstruction.

Way less druggie, actually: https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/bx-by/drug-prevalence/#drug="Alcohol"

This. I've spent time with someone who was responsible for recruitment for an entire service and 'wokeness' wasn't even on the radar. His take was the problem was remuneration, demographics and also a military culture that wasn't well oriented towards recruiting towards the needs of a more digital warfare.

Hence why drone flying in Washington DC is quite illegal within a 15 mile radius of the center.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4426738-seize-russian-assets-ukraine-senate/

Russian passenger flights have been staying on routes at or to the east of the Volgogrod/Tambov line. They swerve a little farther east when something happens.

85% chance Haley loses by 15% or so in NH and will be out after she then loses in SC. 14% chance she loses by single digits and then loses by double digits in SC. 1% chance she loses by single digits/barely wins NH and then carries that momentum through SC. After that, who knows? It is very important to remember that Haley is middle ground...for the GOP. Her positions on abortion, spending, Social Security, etc is fairly far right relative to the general voting public. And her problem is that she's not in an election between her, Biden and Trump. She's in a GOP primary dominated by the 40% or so of its pro-authoritarian electorate. She's also not an elected official in any capacity. She has no ability to rally any votes in Congress and she has no political pull on any of them (as Trump does with that above mentioned 40%). In the end, politicians win by persuasion. Have we seen any evidence of Haley persuading anybody? Any fired up crowds? No and we haven't seen it for a while. Trump has his rallies that are mostly carnivals for the most hard core MAGA folks but you have to go back to early Obama to see a crowd being inspired in a positive way. That's what a game changer looks like. She ain't it.

Fair. After W.T. Sherman's dose of "creative destruction' Georgia had its advantages.

I should have been more clear. I'm of the opinion that this war as a hot war has about a year to run. If Ukraine gets cut off this year or next (should Trump win) will define what a future Ukraine looks like (as in South Korea or Georgia).

A couple of points here are worth adding: 1. The question of aid will be concluded long before the election in November. The White House is already offering pretty much what Republicans want on the border in order to get aid to Israel and Ukraine. The Senate is pretty united on supporting that. Does the House GOP go along? It too would largely support aid but Speaker Johnson lives on a knife edge (the GOP margin is *2* votes) and has to get around the extremists who will try to over throw him when/if he goes for it. So...call it a toss up but we'll know which way it's going in the next four weeks at most. 2. US and EU disbursements are not the only route in which Ukraine can access what it needs. There is something on the order of $300 billion in Russian reserves that could be seized and given to Ukraine for its defense. Taking such a step has significant legal and diplomatic repercussions but as Congressional aid gets held up the motivation to get this money for Kyiv has skyrocketed. Watch this space. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-10/white-house-throws-support-behind-seizing-frozen-russian-assets?embedded-checkout=true

The bottom line is that Mike Johnson's caucus at this point will be against anything they think will get Biden reelected. So...they are against a border deal they support and similarly they are against a Ukraine deal that also most of them support. The countervailing weight is that most of the Senate GOP realizes this is a complete electoral disaster and is urging a better strategy. We'll see.

Mark Galeotti...who I quite respect...with a nuanced on Russian prospects even in the case of a 'win': https://www.intellinews.com/stolypin-no-world-war-iii-is-not-on-the-horizon-308608/

Did you ever run into that mliko business with Pilsner Urquell? My over hopped American tastebuds could not wrap themselves around it.

That's something else I've been wondering about actually. Are the Russians getting barrels too? If not, how bad is their arty at hitting within a kilometer or so of where they aim it?

For the last day, the “Baltic Jammer” out of Kaliningrad has been messing with navigation across Europe. There are more NATO/US sigint platforms up than I’ve seen in a long time. Not sure what exactly, but something’s up.

Per the DPRK conversation, it seems like it would be strange choice for Kim to sell all of his arty stockpiles to Russia if he were planning on engaging in a full on conquest of the RoK:

I think various parties over the years have made it very clear to him that he would not.

"Look at me" has been the main preoccupation of NK foreign policy for 60+ years. I don't see any alteration to the strategic situation that would change that barring mental illness on Kim's part. Even if Trump gets back in the WH, I wouldn't rate their chances.