billbindc

"It is well known by now that a central driver of this war is the development of unmanned weapons systems. They are proliferating at a breathtaking pace and the scope of their applications grows ever wider. Crucially, it is these unmanned systems – such as drones – along with other types of advanced weapons, that provide the best way for Ukraine to avoid being drawn into a positional war, where we do not possess the advantage. But while mastery of such technologies is key, it is not the only factor influencing current strategy." https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/opinions/ukraine-army-chief-war-strategy-russia-valerii-zaluzhnyi/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3B_d9MEggxMAQJ39LmoGZEa6Hrlij2c5bs62tLQhsWM1ccFb7psNDLmm8

The Wallfacer era of military operations has begun...

In terms of AI, I think we'd be better off thinking of autonomous systems less in terms of tactical target selection (i.e. "kill/no kill <> hands up/hands down") and more in the Arms of the Future sense. One good example would would be a fast AI drone with powerful auditory sensors attuned to the particular magnetostrictive hum of Russian power transformers. Or pipeline compression facilities. Or high tension power lines. Or the engine of a tank/self propelled artillery/etc.

I lead a complicated life.

Getting into part of what I do for a living here and actually, the job driverless car sensors and software must handle is literally the opposite of an autonomous suicide drone. The former must navigate every highly complex driven environment and avoid hitting anything. An autonomous suicide drone can be geofenced and must just hit the likeliest right thing most of the time. It's an order of magnitude easier.

If I read the tea leaves correctly, I think a lot of the proofing is already in train.

It is without question that autonomous capability...even if unused in low intensity situations...will be built in. The strategic concern will always be there (i.e. what happens if we fight a mass conflict and don't have it while the other guys does) and once the software is written it is a fairly low cost decision to add it on. And it is quite likely that the ability to identify and target will only become more refined over time.

I've always imagined the next/next step will be an AI targeting system as a backup/dead man switch when ECM cuts the link.

Was just thinking along the same lines when I read this. And that we are in the triplane era, still.

If you are watching the back and forth between Zelensky and Zaluzhny today, I would warn against the way in which most commentary is treating if as if it's a football game...as they do much of what has happened in the war so far. Shashank Joshi at the Economist is going to drop an article soon that looks more deeply at the reasons and the forces motivating the move. I would recommend it in advance.

Or Crazy Ivan's....

If the reporting that the lethal drone attack on Tower 22 is correct then the Shahed followed in an American surveillance drone in order to evade detection and interception. That was either blind dumb luck or lessons being learnt by the Russians are being passed on to Iranian client militias in the ME. I'm not a big believer in luck.

Seems like an under the radar thing right now that Russia is taking exceedingly lopsided losses:

Kofman: https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/

You have to admire how well McConnell plays the game. The 'leak' from yesterday is already chastening the anti-Ukraine aid folks.

I would say there's about a zero percent chance of Girkin being allowed out in the wild with any troops.

We should be clear about what's happening here...and note I am politically an opponent of and no fan personally of Mitch McConnell: McConnell has been trying very hard to get a deal through that addresses the border 'crisis' and funds Ukraine. Trump has become the nominee in all but name and Trump is threatening Senators who make any deals with Biden that might hurt his chances in November. So, McConnell has realized his own caucus is weak at the knees and a linked deal might not get through. His solution is the delink the deals so that Senators can bow to Trump on the border but maybe get Ukraine money through...and he's done it in a way that makes it clear that the fault for all of it lies with Trump. In short, he's maneuvering to keep aid alive while making sure Trump pays a political price for his obstruction.

Way less druggie, actually: https://monitoringthefuture.org/data/bx-by/drug-prevalence/#drug="Alcohol"

This. I've spent time with someone who was responsible for recruitment for an entire service and 'wokeness' wasn't even on the radar. His take was the problem was remuneration, demographics and also a military culture that wasn't well oriented towards recruiting towards the needs of a more digital warfare.

Hence why drone flying in Washington DC is quite illegal within a 15 mile radius of the center.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4426738-seize-russian-assets-ukraine-senate/

Russian passenger flights have been staying on routes at or to the east of the Volgogrod/Tambov line. They swerve a little farther east when something happens.

85% chance Haley loses by 15% or so in NH and will be out after she then loses in SC. 14% chance she loses by single digits and then loses by double digits in SC. 1% chance she loses by single digits/barely wins NH and then carries that momentum through SC. After that, who knows? It is very important to remember that Haley is middle ground...for the GOP. Her positions on abortion, spending, Social Security, etc is fairly far right relative to the general voting public. And her problem is that she's not in an election between her, Biden and Trump. She's in a GOP primary dominated by the 40% or so of its pro-authoritarian electorate. She's also not an elected official in any capacity. She has no ability to rally any votes in Congress and she has no political pull on any of them (as Trump does with that above mentioned 40%). In the end, politicians win by persuasion. Have we seen any evidence of Haley persuading anybody? Any fired up crowds? No and we haven't seen it for a while. Trump has his rallies that are mostly carnivals for the most hard core MAGA folks but you have to go back to early Obama to see a crowd being inspired in a positive way. That's what a game changer looks like. She ain't it.

Fair. After W.T. Sherman's dose of "creative destruction' Georgia had its advantages.

I should have been more clear. I'm of the opinion that this war as a hot war has about a year to run. If Ukraine gets cut off this year or next (should Trump win) will define what a future Ukraine looks like (as in South Korea or Georgia).