billbindc

It is a weird artifact of the current analytical milieu that while everyone has an opinion about the dire effects of loss in Ukraine on the West, nobody spends much time thinking about what a loss would mean for Russia. It's especially odd when we have a recent example of what happens to a post Soviet era successor regime that fails in absorbing a neighbor. I'm talking about, of course, post Gulf War Iraq. Putin might hold on. He might manage to stave off further dissolution of state. But the general situation would be a parlous existence of continued sanctions, hostile and well armed neighbors, continued demographic decline and the political evaporation of the Russkiy Mir. In fact, this is exactly what will happen in pretty much every outcome except a decisive victory for Moscow. Russia must stay on offense for many of the same reasons Germany did in WWI and if it loses is likely to in a similar way.

If your feelings are that strong then please use the link provided above to call every Representative you can. Thanks.

Love it. Thank you.

I don't think describing an actual reality is 'getting too domestic'. Trump and his acolytes have made it clear that should he win, Ukraine...and indeed Taiwan...is on it's own and the pressure he is putting on Congress to stymie aid is proof of it. If you want Ukraine to win, get out there and help make it happen. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Senate-passed Ukraine aid package has been put up for a discharge petition today. If it reaches 216 signatures, it can be brought to a vote even against the Speaker's opposition. == As of 12 March == Total signatures: 169 (out of 216 needed) Needed signatures remaining: 47 Democrat signatures: 169 (with 44 remaining). No Republicans have signed yet. We assess: Republican Reps are waiting to see how many Democrats sign before they make a decision. Current top priority: CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE! -- If they haven't signed yet - urge them to sign the discharge petition (H.Res. 1016) to bring Ukraine aid (bill H.R. 815) to a vote. -- If they've already signed on - ask them to reach out to their colleagues to encourage them to sign. You can check your Rep's status at: http://bit.ly/discharge815 Now that the working day is over, we can start intensively circulating the shortlist of Democrats who have not yet signed the discharge petition. This graphic is based on the data at http://bit.ly/discharge815. Both that list and this graphic are by @community4Ukraine. #call4ukraine Reposts welcome - no credit required. Community for Ukraine

Per our earlier conversation, I think this gives a good sense of how willing the House is to defy the former guy when something is really popular:

The thing to understand right now is that the Speaker already has no authority. His sole leverage is that nobody wants to go through another debac-tacular leadership election again. And with Buck's retirement and NY23 coming up, the Republican margin will be down to 1 vote for a while. It will then go back up to...2. So, there is little Johnson can do to punish recalcitrant members and plenty they can do to ruin his day, every day. The inescapable fact the derives from the above is that there is no plan or agreement. Johnson is a cipher...and Trump's cipher at that...in the House. He has no party loyalty to rely on (as Jefferies does) and his team is made up of pols who have more experience, cliques that support them, etc (i.e. Scalise, Jordan). What plan there is, is simply to stymie aid as long as possible because that's what Trump wants. Thus, the discharge petition. To the vote, that the discharge petition is even happening tells you it has legs and in this case there are actually two (one from a Democrat and one from a Republican) but it is a hard road to travel and it takes time. How would the vote go? You probably lose about 10 to 15 Democrats but you also probably gain 70 to 100 Republicans. If the vote were a secret ballot, you probably would get 150 plus. Ukraine aid is that rare thing...it is truly popular and bipartisan. If they get the discharge to the finish line, it almost certainly passes...Johnson be damned.

"Lawmakers are discharging a special rule from House Rules. Process slightly faster than discharging legislation from a standing committee. Only 7 legislative days to pass for discharge, rather than 30 days to discharge a bill." https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/724415/how-a-little-used-parliamentary-maneuver-could-decide-the-fate-of-ukraine-funding/?unlock=3941GNX9JJY9R4NM

In this case, it's less a question of what the Speaker can do to slow it down (he's already doing that) and more a question of the time it takes to get the petition fully filled out.

Correct. And it has been a risky step to take given the politics of aid in the US House.

Sure, right. Not nuts.

For the record, the only Abrams in Afghanistan were with the USMC and they were about as useful as a 63 ton doorstop.

Does anyone have a source for what current Russian arty usage looks like…as in for the last three months leading up to the last few days? I’m hearing that stockpiles of DPRK and Iranian rounds available to Russia are now depleted and I would like to see some actual evidence of such. If correct, we could be seeing a more general shell famine than public expectations of inevitable Russian offensives expect.

I would say that US allies are beginning to digest two things: 1. US aid may never really recover for Ukraine. 2. If Ukraine loses, it will be the biggest crisis since WWII. But as usual, let's see what the follow through looks like.

There's a line of thinking on these guys...Thiel, Musk and Sacks...that their approach to the world is heavily influenced by the experience all three had growing up within a baaskap framework. I find it to be pretty compelling.

How do folks from India get snookered into being fodder for meat assaults in far Ukraine? Le Monde has your answer: https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/02/29/des-indiens-recrutes-a-leur-insu-dans-l-armee-russe_6219341_3210.html

I think this understates the situation considerably. Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were peripheral wars that did not seriously affect the US strategic position. Ukraine is a war to defend the outer ramparts of the EU...which is where the US has 50% of its trade and gets 50% of its foreign investment. And a failure of will there has implications for perceptions of American will over Taiwan, future confrontations over NATO, etc. Munich is the most abused analogy in modern history...which is a shame...because it applies here.

Per the David Sacks conversation, I thought I should probably explain my poker jibe:

David Sacks is a toxic gnome, a bad poker player, a hanger on to Elon Musk and a Peter Thiel intimate with whom at Stanford he wrote that rape was typically really just “belated regret”. He’s always run in their slipstream and acts as their errrand boy, cheerleader and fixer. These days, he’s most firmly tied to Musk who has numerous financial and legal entanglements that would be very much served with a Trump win in November. So, Sacks is doing his best to support Musk’s Trumpian line. That’s really all there is to it.

There's an argument that I find persuasive. McConnell is taking a page from Pelosi's book (indeed, it would not shock me in the slightest if they sat down and drew it up together) by retiring in this way so that he can heavily influence the make up of leadership after he is gone. An orderly exit in which he hamstrings Cruz, Paul, Hawley and Vance seems to be in the offing. Proof will be if some mix of the Johns (Borrasso, Thune, Cornyn) dominate the leadership afterwards.

I've met the authors. Great scholars who have taken huge risks and lost much to keep going. Now in London because arrest in Russia was imminent. All their books are well worth the money.

Nothing new here: https://www.amazon.com/Compatriots-Chaotic-History-Russias-Émigrés/dp/154173016X

I think a trip to parts of India would dispel your disbelief.

Vietnam is a net exporter, no?

These are political, not personal conversations.

Where could I find that plan or a good description of it? It would help with some of the people I deal with.