billbindc

The gist of the article is really in the second graf. The US has allies to soothe (read Germany and France) and those allies have internal politics to navigate helped by that soothing. That's all.

We've had artillery launched mines for a long time. When are we going to have artillery launched cameras/sensors/monitors?

That Zelensky feels comfortable pushing and Biden feels comfortable pushing back is an indication of closeness in an alliance rather that the opposite. I would put this story in the ‘normal alliance horse trading’ box.

There is a classic case of this happening in American politics right now. Urban America is typically safer from all varieties of mortality than rural America. That's especially true for kids and yet it's close to heretical for a politician to say it.

Luke Coffey debunks the claims made on accountability definitively here: https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/ten-myths-us-aid-ukraine-luke-coffey These points are well understood to be true on the Hill which should put the positioning going on in a fairly unflattering context.

I would read the entire article. The jury's still out.

I was being a bit coy so to say it flat out I think two things happened. 1. The US effectively convinced peer competitors that it was a MAD situation in cyberwarfare when it reality the US possesses preponderant dominance. 2. Just as NATO would treat a strong cyber attack on NATO states as violating Article 5, doing so to Russia would have an unacceptable escalation risk.

I have a clear recollection of some very sober (or not very sober) conversations where I was solemnly assured that the US, Russia, China (in descending order) had incredible cyber offensive capabilities but that defense was for all practical purposes impossible. There are only two options right now; either the Russians are exercising careful restraint or US cyber defenses (in expeditionary mode!) are far more robust than we were led to believe.

Nothing lamer than blaming staff for a letter you signed yourself.

The most succinct summation of Afghanistan I ever heard: it was a temporary occupation that was allowed to continue for two decades.

True but it's good to be even handed. I think it's also accurate to say that Ukraine's center of gravity for a long war is up the street from where I live. It's important to track what those folks are getting up to. On a positive note, it's been a long time since I've seen as swift and effective reaction to a statement on Capitol Hill.

I think it's important to make a distinction between those Russians settled in the Baltics, Crimea, Kaliningrad, etc and those who emigrated outside of the then Soviet sphere: The former were clearly designed to change the demographic facts on the ground in recalcitrant areas on the empire, Ulster plantation style, and have retained many of the attitudes inherent to that function and its subsequent collapse. Of course, there is a strong element of revanchism in that group. In the Baltics, that group totals something like 1,000,000 souls. But there are more than a million Russians of some identification in Kazakhstan, Brazil, the US, Germany, Israel and of course Ukraine. In all, some 25 million Russians live outside of Putin's direct sway. Those folks are not out in the streets supporting Putin except in truly tiny numbers. Anecdotally, in my neck of the woods I don't know a single Russian who doesn't hold him in disgusted contempt. But contempt isn't all of it. There has been a very thorough and very long running campaign by the Putin regime to put fear into those emigres. Emigres know they are tracked quite closely if they make themselves known as opponents of the regime. Business ties to Russia are exploited against them. Friends and family are threatened. Trips to the old country become calculated gambles against the possibility of arrest. None of this is new and most of the playbook was written by the Okhrana. All of this is a long way to make two points: 1. The number of Russian emigres who are supporting Putin is tiny relative to their numbers. 2. Those that do not support Putin are hesitant to do so loudly because of the very real dangers they face. I would recommend Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan's book on the topic of Russian intelligence/emigres. It's eye opening. A link to a discussion on it here: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/russian-roulette/russian-intelligence-and-political-emigres-russian-roulette-episode-93 (The protests I linked above were actually in Moscow.)

Russia strikes me as far more like the Ottoman Empire than any of the others with a difficult geographic spread, a large and dominant ethnic core, seemingly unfixable systemic characteristics and a sense of itself gigantically out of proportion to its actual role in the world. I think like that empire, Russia isn't going away but with some 45% of the federal budget coming from energy sales, it's going to be a shadow of it's former self even with only a gentle decline of the internal combustion engine.

I generally agree but it's also true that empires have a way of looking quite permanent until quite suddenly they are not. The Ottoman empire was incredibly corrupt, decadent, weak...and resilient for a long time...until WWI finally kicked the legs out from under it. Ditto the German and Austro-Hungarian empires. That Russia survived as something like an imperial state is an anomaly based on a lot of contingency and geopolitical conditions that are unlikely to remain in place for long. Energy economics alone...aided idiotically by Putin in this war...are one extremely significant pillar that is going to weaken.

Opposition was much stronger 8 years ago. What has happened since has been highly effective repression and civic demobilization. I think it's hard to parse why one society kicks back harder and longer...Ukraine being the best example even before this war started...but it's clear that civil capacity is as variable and as important as it is in the military sense. If I had to say, I would argue that while quite shambolic, Russia is still a multiethnic empire based on resource extraction with Russians as a dominant caste therein. That creates political cross currents that undercut forces struggling for representative government against corruption and authoritarianism.

I've been hitting conservatives in Congress pretty hard lately for getting soft on Ukraine aid. Today, egged on by the clowns at the Quincy Institute, the Progressive Caucus put their oar in the water. Their letter below is a tissue of caveats and attaboys for Biden that they seem to have believed would cushion their call for the US to essentially beg Putin to negotiate. https://progressives.house.gov/_cache/files/5/5/5523c5cc-4028-4c46-8ee1-b56c7101c764/B7B3674EFB12D933EA4A2B97C7405DD4.10-24-22-cpc-letter-for-diplomacy-on-russia-ukraine-conflict.pdf This take was so anathema to pretty much everyone in DC who doesn't hang around with MTG that they had to 'clarify' (that's DC speak for rapidly abandon) their statement. Idiots.

First hubris and then political and media inertia. A lot of careers and budgets orbited around Afghanistan. One need only look at the CNN roster of on air personnel 50 and up. Almost all got an enormous boost from Afghanistan career-wise at the beginning and then swung back every few years to write a book or do a 'thoughtful piece on why we are/are not winning the war'. That dynamic made ending it political poison...as we saw last year.

I have no problem with identifying the dangers inherent in Russian fifth columns in the Baltics or anywhere else. That's a legitimate issue and worthy of concern. The essentialist logic Kraze applies to *every* Russian isn't just reprehensible. It is completely inaccurate and It actually reflects the mindset that Putin and his ilk bring to social and international relations. It is precisely what, ostensibly, we are fighting. And unless someone knows how to overthrow a nuclear armed state without triggering Armageddon, we are going to need those people down the line to help a normalized Russia state to come about.

It's the Bomber Damage Analysis fallacy. Yes...we hear about and see the obnoxious Russian emigres behaving badly. We don't hear about the many, many others who are real refuges from Putinist repression and/or bitter enemies of it. In my anecdotal experience, they far outnumber the loons. Kraze can indulge himself in this bigotry if he wants to. I will not.

This is a profoundly absurd statement. There are plenty of freedom loving Russians in the west and they are very, very easy to find. Beware of staring too long into the abyss.

I came latish to this board after being tipped off by some folks that the analyses here were often of a very high grade. That assessment held up. My take why is two fold. First, I don't think anyone here is making their beer money in doing that kind of analysis in a public facing way where their professional reputation is on the line. That creates a lot of freedom from group think or lowers the hesitation to revise a previously held opinion. Second, the experience/expertise level on this board is quite high and unflinchingly unleashed on bad analysis. That scares off most of the look-at-me pontificating and provides real insights that simply aren't available in a commercial publication. This place has been an extremely useful go-to on this war and I suspect it's been more useful than we realize. Slava, etc.

There's a video out there somewhere of Kilcullen and Rory Stewart going off after the Afghan pullout and it's a really incredible exercise in un-self aware buck passing. I actually respect a lot of Kilcullen's work...but his inability to comprehend the gap between means and ends or to properly place Afghanistan and the WOT where it belongs on a list of strategic priorities is utterly glaring. He reminds me of the acolytes of 'self driving' cars. They always tell you that the solution is just around the corner, that more money and research will break down the insoluble problems and that ultimately the user/consumer is to blame when it fails to work. BLUF, beware the critiques and analysis of anyone who has a strong interest in the outcome.

Huh? https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/oct-6-2022-united-states-announces-55-million-in-emergency-assistance-to-help-ukraine-prepare-for-winter

Blowing the dam would essentially be an admission that Russia expects to lose the rest of Kherson, probably Zaporizhzhia as well and would likely fatally doom any hopes to make Crimea a viable territory should Russia continue to hold it. I therefor predict Russia will blow the dam.