Bearstronaut
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Posts posted by Bearstronaut
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14 hours ago, Kinophile said:
Interesting thread on Ukrainian experience training with US Rangers in Germany.
Really sounds like Drone Warfare hasn't landed within the US army culture yet. Not surprisingly, as the guy notes - US hasn't fought a peer level war in decades, so the pressure isnt there.
@Haiduk what is Nettle?
Pretty enlightening thread. I share the Ranger trainers shock that these Ukrainian soldiers don't use maps and roll around using cellphones and Chinese-made tablets. If they are able to do so then perhaps Russian EW isn't as good as expected. Still, they should be able to navigate using a map so they can get around when their high tech GNSS gear is jammed. Looks like that training was useful at least.
Also, I got a pretty big laugh at this guy complaining about showing up at 0600 for a 0900 range time. Classic US Army right there.
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46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Helluva lot of credibility to blow up on this war, but he found a way. His wiki page read like "a next gen maverick too real for mainstream military service", followed by his whole government work. Turns out the guy is so extreme a pro-Russian mouthpiece that most in intelligence would likely suspect he has been compromised. He has no credibility left in my industry, at least not in the "real world" circles.
He never should have had any credibility post-2004 after he strongly and repeatedly argued that the US could invade and secure Iraq with a force of 50,000.
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1 minute ago, Yet said:
ofc, but you miss the point.
1. make a statement
2. stop placing the mines
3. make the individuals who ordered them to be placed responsible for cleaning.
How does this help Ukraine win the war? That is their only concern right now.
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6 minutes ago, Yet said:
noop, thats why i said imo ;).
Though i am afraid nothing whatsoever is going to be done. Ukr itself should make clear that this was a mistake and they will fix it.
cleaning up 10x what you place sounds like a good start no?
They are mining their own country. Obviously they will try to demine the countryside after the war ends.
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17 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
Of course we don't know what the Ukrainian command considers their objective for this counteroffensive, but how much would it take to be seen as a success for the Ukrainian public and from the allies?
Yes we do. It's quite obvious from where the major attacks are that the Ukrainian goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and cut Russian GLOCs to Crimea.
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8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
The problem is that roughly 30% of the population believes anything they READ because they have defective information filters (combination biology and environment). In the world of politics, all you need to do is fool some of the people some of the time and you win an election, get support for undermining democracy, and then do bad things.
Steve
It's wild because pretty much everybody is saying "maybe this isn't such a good idea" and AI developers are like "Ima do it anyways."
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I honestly don’t think this detente can last for very long. Prigozhin has to know he’s a dead man sooner or later.
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3 minutes ago, dan/california said:
We are not yet seeing the amount of violence implied by the multi sided information op that seems to be underway on the Russian side. Still not quite sure if this is a real break, or some sort of scripted show.
I lean heavily towards it being a real break. There is no reason for Russia to project this sort of instability while they are fighting off Ukraine's biggest offensive of the war. As for not seeing the violence, stuff happening right now mostly won't be posted online for another 12 hours.
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4 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Which of course is what they would say either way....
It's entirely possible that the strikes on Wagner camps are false but that a coup attempt by Prigozhin is nevertheless underway.
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8 hours ago, dan/california said:
If The_Capt gets deployed we need to pass the hat to get him every ultralight carbon fiber and titanium piece of gear there is. It is the least we can do for a free staff college education.
Edit: We didn't even have to take the class on logistics forms...
He's not the only one who would be going. I'm a NCO in a EUCOM-aligned Reserve unit. Additionally, my little sister is a Reserve officer currently deployed in Poland.
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The Ukrainians seem pretty darn sure that Russia is planning to do some nefarious s*** at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
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9 minutes ago, billbindc said:
Speaking of War Gonzo, don't forget to vote:
Tulsi Gabbard
EDIT: I mean Lt. Col Tulsi Gabbard, USAR
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Ukrainian strategy seems more reminiscent of the "bite and hold" strategy used by the Entente in the latter half of WW1 than it does of the sweeping armored maneuvers of WW2.
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11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Did said retired SEAL 03/screenwriter ever attend a war college? Did he serve in a JTF HQ in a conventional peer war? Does he have a PHD in defence sciences? Military history? Did he ever serve in a J2 shop?
This is the problem with people throwing quals around online…most people reading those quals have no context for them. Right now the only people in the west with insider knowledge of this war cannot talk about it (but gawd I hope they are writing stuff down).
Online one need only go “Insert SF quals” and suddenly they are a credible source followed by thousands. And then there are the qualified people who are full of it. Col Macgregor is very highly qualified - the guy is a SAMS grad no less - and he has been repeatedly shown as completely wrong so many times I do not think anyone is counting anymore.
My point being is that it does not matter one whit if this guy is who he says he is, because that “is” does not make him able to provide credible assessment and analysis. Now maybe he got that map from someone else (no refs and citations tell me he never went to war college) but as a credible source I am pretty doubtful and it would matter if he was the guy that shot OBL in the head.
The people who can make more accurate assessments are in boring jobs and have resumes that will never be turned into a screenplay. Take a look at Perun, the guy is not always 100% but he has never really gone into his background - my bet is defence scientist or institutional policy type. But his stuff is generally solid. It is likely built on years of boring office jobs in defence acquisition or force development, not “Delta Ranger Seal”!
I mean I agree with you. I’m just pointing out to that he did in fact serve as a SEAL officer. I’m an intelligence professional myself so it irks me when people say “oh I was an infantry officer in the Cold War so let me tell you about your job.”
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32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
FFS how many of these guys have come out of the woodwork in the last 18 months? 1) his claimed experience is impossible to verify because - classified. 2) what in the hell does a Seal Team Six NCO know about high intensity peer-conventional conflict(?), and 3) if he was what he says he was, and is still hooked into western intel...he should know better than posting updates based on that, on freakin Twitter.
Claiming SF gets a lot of views but it that experience has little to do with the actual war unless they have served forward in Ukraine...and they cannot talk about it if they have. I have watched a lot of guys with SF patches pretending thy know what they are talking about...and they do not. Even the trail of former Generals are often off the mark because this war is so far outside the experience of any western military since Korea. At this point all we can do is make best guesses by applying basic military assessments. I have seen so much weird in this war that I feel completely lost at times.
He was a SEAL officer back the 80s who got out as an O3 and then became a screenwriter. A somewhat successful screenwriter it seems.
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9 hours ago, dan/california said:
The Pentagon threw a LOT of money at IED solutions while we were in Iraq. I wouldn't say the didn't get anything out of it, but they were distinctly short of miracles. That is why we have an approximate infinity of MRAPS to give the Ukrainians.
So many MRAPs that my alma mater's police department has one.
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Just now, Butschi said:
I'm certain there would be a strong reaction but keep in mind that all Biden can do is order US planes to intervene. He can try to form some sort of coalition but he has no authority to command other NATO partners' air forces. Even if NATO was to somehow construct a case for article 5 here, that would still have to be ratified by every member. Which is... unlikely to happen.
So, I guess that is hard to make clear for Biden.
I'm sure he'd have no problem convincing the Poles at the very least.
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10 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Care to elaborate?
Clare Daly is an Irish member of the European parliament who is pretty much a tankie.
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Just now, Battlefront.com said:
HAH! You fell into my semantics trap! The Russian invasion of February 2022 was not a planned combat operation, which is why it failed when it became engaged in combat.
Seriously though, I did think of this very point when I wrote what I wrote. Russia's initial invasion plan was made explicitly with the assumption that combat would be light, if any. Ukraine's counter offensive going on now was made with the opposite assumption. Russia's offensives last year were smaller by comparison IMHO.
Steve
Fair enough. Makes sense to me.
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45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Guys, please... let's stop the tangential discussion of small arms. It's the sort of great conversation to have when there's not a lot else going on. I call the beginning phase of probably the largest scale combat operation in Europe since the end of WW2 "something else going on" at the very least
Steve
Wouldn't this be the second largest combat operation in Europe since WW2? The first being the Russian invasion of February 2022.
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That Russian officer the Wagnerites detained and tortured is claiming that Wagner leaked the location of a prominent Chechen to Ukraine who was subsequently hit with arty.
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17 minutes ago, Kraft said:
Okay, before I lose my cool
: am I mistaking that these are new Bradleys, that tried to drive around the older Bradleys, that have already succeeded in demining activity, and got blown up in the same line, which probably contains the mine belt? Or were those just not visible in the first pictures?
They all look abandoned after going over mines (which means easy pickings for drones with grenades and artillery, btw)
And please dont start with the "its an attack losses are standard" what makes me angry is that this appears like a zhukov style drive forward and explode command, not a battle. Especially since this appears to be a 2nd attempt at driving through there. Maybe a 3rd "probe" will do.
You are reacting to fragmentary reports of relatively minor losses. Did you seriously expect the ZSU to break through a prepared defense belt in all locations without losses in a day or so? If ZSU units are still struggling in the first line of fortifications this time next week I would start to get worried but for now just chill and realize you aren't seeing the full picture.
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30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I've developed a theory about a certain type of personality that is often involved in intelligence work. A small percentage have the intelligence and skills to keep their mental illness in check long enough to make a name for themselves, but by the time that happens they are at stage of illness that they increasingly find it difficult to keep under control. So they tend to flame out of their profession and often reappear in conspiracy theory circles with the usual side issues of antisemitisim, white nationalism, and belief that autocracy is an ideal to aspire to.
Steve
Mike Flynn
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14 minutes ago, Mr.X said:
Indeed, I have asked BF, if there was the possibility to give support without any financial interest. The result was: no reaction - but this is ok
At the moment, this Pack is like a start up = good potential with no finished product. So, now it is my turn to provide a finished product of high quality
Regards
Mr.X
Well, good on you man. I appreciate the hard work and eagerly await the full release of your battle pack.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
When I was in high school my little sister and her friend poured baking soda into a glass vinegar bottle in our backyard and screwed the top back on. It exploded and my sister took a big piece of shrapnel in her leg. Her friend was miraculously unharmed considering that they were standing only a few meters away. I had to drive my sister to the ER to get the shrapnel removed and her wound stitched up. She still has a gnarly scar on her thigh from the incident.