Homo_Ferricus

I'm not arguing that things are going to plan for Russia. I'm also not complaining that people here haven't been posting more Russian media or whatever. Just sharing my understanding of the situation to temper the sense of, "Any minute now the entire country will collapse in a heap." mentality that is well represented here. Maybe I should reaffirm that I am in fact rooting for Ukraine... Though I don't celebrate Russian deaths--my mother got us out of Russia so that my brother and I wouldn't be conscripted. There goes I but for the grace of god. I don't think Russians are in control of Brovary. They got spanked there and pulled back, far as I can tell. Again, not suggesting ANYTHING has gone to plan for Russia. It hasn't. Just that there is evidence that Russia still has some capacity to grasp at, and maybe get, more leverage prior to making whatever sort of agreement with Ukraine. As I said before, they might be gearing up for a second wind offensive to get as much as they can prior to a settlement, NOT that they'd achieve any of their original operational objectives. Also wouldn't be ashamed to admit this is wrong if the fog clears and it turns out that the marginal gains we're seeing are in fact just uncoordinated "zombie twitches".

Referring to Mr. Annoying Army dude in the video I posted above--resources like liveuamap (which I should remind you is run by patriotic Ukrainians) does not reflect any reversals--only additional, marginal gains by the Russians. You'd think this is the first place you'd see reversals reflected on a map, if they were happening on the ground. Not to say that the gains aren't indeed marginal and coming at a very high cost to Russia. Clearly we're still in dense fog of war with regard to facts on the ground. I still don't believe the Russian Army is on the brink of systemic collapse, although clearly some BTGs have been battered out of existence. I get the impression there's some overexaggerating of how strong a hand Ukraine has at the negotiation table. If these marginal gains continue to happen, Russia may well be in howitzer range of central Kyiv very soon. That would be undesirable.

On the topic of staying objective on Russian progress/status, this guy again: Also some analysis of the Brovary ambushes caught on drone cam, but nothing much we haven't discussed here already. First 5 minutes or so were interesting for me. Hopefully not a repost--this was uploaded yesterday but I haven't seen it in this thread.

Likelihood of this are so close to nil that it's hardly worth thinking about it at this point. -Domestically not viable. He is making the case that Ukraine is a part of Russia and it's people want to be united with Russia and saved from Nazis. To start irradiating ANY parts of Ukraine would be indigestible to the Russian people, on all levels--from the leadership and political class all the way down to the "peasants". I don't think there are any target concentrations that are away from cities and populated areas that Putin could make the case it was purely a military target. -Risks MASSIVE escalation with NATO. Even imagining the West does not respond with conventional military action, you can bet every covert agency in the world, including those in Russia, to make their task #1 "Regime change in Russia." If Putin manages to walk away still in power in the aftermath of a nuclear strike, for the next 5 years basically every human on Earth agenda item #1 is to get rid of Putin. -There are more that I'm sure others are addressing as I type this.... It's hard keeping up in this thread and trying to have a day job all at once!

Tanks barrel isn't pointed in quite the right direction, and it does not appear to fire at the moment of explosion. Could be another tank, could be a mortar, could be an ATGM missing the tank? Very hard to say.

Sure. I didn't mean to suggest that it was a planned operational pause, or a desired one. Call it a loss of momentum--nonetheless this is the strategy that I'm seeing/inferring; stop attempting new breakthroughs at points of resistance until strength has been gathered and a real punch can be delivered. Sure they had 6 months to prepare, but no one was preparing for a fight. Hell no one even had their hearts in preparing for an actual incursion. Now the Russian Army is fighting for their lives--conscripts, officers, high command and all. And they are reacting accordingly. As a matter of % of force we have not yet seen what the Russians endured in the 1st Chechen campaign. They had less than 100k deployed throughout the conflict and ended up with 5-7k deaths, and very many more wounded. By my estimate that's at least twice the % of force destroyed as currently in Ukraine. Chechnya being in living memory I think is a lot more applicable than 1917--which was a time of different sensibilities and different means, and a whole different scale of destruction. Granted, I'm sure Russian deaths will surpass those of any modern campaign if things go on as they have for another 2-4 weeks. Also, I don't know how to split up quote boxes

One can only hope. Really hoping Ukrainians are continuing to treat POWs well, and that word gets to the Russian formations. Just watched a fresh video from Zelensky inviting conscripts to give themselves up. Still, it will be some inventive/courageous conscripts that manage to get to UA lines and surrender, on indivodual and small group levels. I don't think we'll see whole battalions dropping their weapons and walking to the Ukrainians.

I'm starting to get the impression that the static nature of the front is not so much Russia struggling to make gains on a daily basis, but a consolidation period for them to regroup and rearm. Significant amount of evidence for that, including Ukranie MoD claiming less activity along the lines. Seems like Russian drone activity has picked up steeply in the last few days, including their use of drones to guide their indirect fires. Drones and indirect fires is what wins for Russia (and everyone really). We saw it in 2014/15, see it in Syria (Russians and Turks), in Karabakh (Azeris), etc. They're starting to fight like they're meant to. I imagine the new strategy is to limit operations in most areas, suffer the attrition while gathering what ammo and supplies they can, bring drones to the front to find targets, and shoot all that ammo at said targets before making another violent push, this time aided by drones, more cruise missile strikes and a solid turnout of the VKS. If only to push the Ukranians onto the backfoot, so talks can proceed on Russia's terms. Rather than achieve original operational objectives of the invasion. I'll also add that it's unlikely the Russian Army will break in the field, mutiny or withdraw at large without orders. Chechnya was god-awful, morale was non-existent, the economy was in the dumps, the Chechens were absolutely brutalizing the Russian conscripts. And yet there was no mutiny, no mass surrenders any higher than platoon level or so. Obviously times have changed somewhat, and Ukraine is not Chechnya, but Russians will generally tolerate a LOT before flat out refusal and rebellion. Probably more than they should in many cases.

Interesting part of the exchange: Soldier: They're sh*tting on us everyday with grads and artillery Friend: You're sh*tting on them, too? Aren't you? Soldier: Yeah sure, with what (sarcastic) Friend: WTF, don't you guys have ammo to shoot?? Soldier: For the machinguns, but thats pretty much it

Can we stop bringing up the "shot down" transport aircraft loaded with VDV until at least THE FIRST piece of evidence that this actually happened is turned over? Seriously I'm all for being proven wrong--show me the evidence--but I resolutely believe in observing some simple standards about this sort of parroting. Haven't seen any video/pics, remains, flight radar data to support it, obituaries, corroborating witnesses... anything, except for a claim by the group(s) that would stand to gain the most from such a morale victory, particularly in the opening hours of war. Would love to get to the bottom of this "big if true" claim.

Thanks, appreciate the clarification. I think international media has translated that as "12,000 deaths" and are running with that.

Are you sure you have that right? Everything I've seen has said 12k deaths. UA MoD website loads slowly and I haven't found the figures straight from the horses mouth, but here's an example from a Guardian article from Friday: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/russia-ukraine-war-numbers-casualties-refugees-aid

There are no sources that I go to regularly, but the zeitgeist sometimes pushes Russian sources to me, largely from Youtube, sometimes other places. A lot of it is propaganda, but that can also be useful at times for interpolating data, or at least figuring out what the party line is. Knowing the language helps a lot with understanding all the little things being said in videos and coming from the Russian public, moreso than being able to read official sources even. Here's a video from an hour ago from Ru MoD--keep in mind I think the reported numbers are probably total crap. But it is interesting that they report hitting west Lviv oblast with "Long-reaching precision weapons" and claim to have killed an unrealistic number of foreign fighters and destroyed NATO weapons imports. By the way YT auto-translate is generally good enough that even english speakers can go to Russian sources, there.

I'd love to tell you it was my scouring of OSINT with a fine comb and my genius military mind... really it's interpolating data from the different sources that are reporting on casualties. Russia is most encouraged to minimize their reported losses, Ukraine most encouraged to maximize them. Take interests and competencies into consideration from other reporting parties, apply some of that OSINT and a little bit of personal intuition based on experience and knowledge. Keep in mind I speak Russian and have access to Russian-speaking sources.

I'm shocked everyone here takes the UA MoD for their word. Propaganda of course goes both ways, especially during a time of existential war. Ukrainians have every reason to doll up these numbers by a factor of 5. There is obviously combat still happening, my read of this was that MoD realized as this conflict seems to keep rolling they can't just add another 1,000 deaths a day lest the absurdity of the numbers becomes too obvious... I think the other day there was a number from US DoD that estimated Ru deaths at 3k. My personal estimate is between 2-3k.

Russian crews all over Ukraine after watching this video:

Watch from 0:56-1:03 you can see just as the fire flares into what looks like is about to be a catastrophic kill, it is suddenly put out almost completely.

Anyone know what kind of tank this was? Seems like there may have been a fire suppression system that saved the crew, as you can see the flames settling and disappearing rather quickly. I thought for sure the carousel was going to blow.

No flank security I agree with, but I think you're trying way too hard to make the Russians look bad. The units in the killzone recognized what was happening and quickly got out of it, correctly identifying which area is safe and which isn't (except the one dismount that run towards the gas station before turning back). Their return suppressive fire was quick and pretty heavy, and hitting the general vicinity of where the ambusher shot from. The tanks behind the units fleeing the killzone stopped and oriented their front armor towards the threat and fired. Not American SOF level of sophistication when it comes to IA drills, but not a terrible tactical response. You can pick apart a bunch of details and individual actions, but it wasn't imbecilic.

I would agree. Even using a tactical nuke in Ukraine would be an unforgivable sin in the eyes of most ordinary Russians, who have friends or relatives, who have visited, and have other connections there.

Can Putin tolerate a loss? Is he brilliant enough to spin it into something that he believes won't result in him being toppled? Leave it to him to find creative solutions, that's why many are freaked out about the nuclear question, including my Russian expat relatives. The important question for us is not how much joy there would if Ukraine were to win, but how much danger is there if Putin were to lose...

Is there any chance you might limit your hammering to just on twitter? Sorry nothing personal but your name is one of a few whose posts I mostly skip reading because you don't contribute meaningfully in the name of relevant sources, analysis or expertise. Not trying to create "shots fired" exchanges with you or anyone but I wonder how many other forum goers I speak for in this regard. I understand emotions are high and people have things to say, but it would be great if this thread was reserved for high-quality analysis and posting of verified (or at least verifiable) information as it relates to military affairs. And no, two-sentence posts that are merely jumping on the Russia-bashing bandwagon don't count as high quality posts. edit: been active and lurker on the forums intermittently since 2001, not just a new guy complaining...

Bucha? I recall seeing similar roads lined with wrecks alleging to be there. I imagine the West is passing solid intel about Russian attempts to flank Kyiv on the west side, and the UA are making good use of it.

Guess I'm throwing in my 2 cents on the political side--as a Russian that came to the US as a little boy, I've got some visibility into the culture. The US/NATO played a role in stoking this by spreading NATO post-cold war TOWARDS Russia's borders. NATO does not appreciate that Russia considers this an existential threat, as we can see by their actions... I'm against wars of aggression, of course, easily. I'm rooting for Ukraine, and wishing the violence and death would end. That said I think NATO has a part to play in de-escalating and naming Ukraine as a neutral country. To keep upping the ante with announcing more lethal aid can get reckless. This is a rather dangerous game of chicken.

This IL-76 shot down stuff sounds bogus--no way IL-76 full of paratroopers went down over Ukraine or even Russia without people noticing, even in a sparsely populated area. You don't think someone would see the fireball? Hear the sound? have some photo/video to share of the vast amount of debris that would be littered about the next morning? MH17 was hit at 30k' altitude, there was video footage, recognizable debris all over the place, remains.... etc. Not to mention that we haven't heard or seen anything solid regarding VDV on the ground near Vasylkiv.