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ikalugin

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Posts posted by ikalugin

  1. 5 hours ago, IMHO said:

    It's no more no less than a floating Rakushka (APC on BMP-3 platform). All the pros (not many in my opinion), all the cons. E.g. I wonder what sea state it's capable of navigating in. But it's a proven platform and converting it into a floating one does not look like a huge technological risk.

    You mean on the BMD platform?

    5 hours ago, IMHO said:

    It's an Armata turned hinder part before. This awkward lump in the front is because they turned the engine as well. Typical UVZ approach - they sell to the Russian MoD not what it really needs but what's more convenient for UVZ. UVZ has limited (insufficient, inadequate) design capabilities so each new project is an unsurmountable task for them.

    Huh, I guess I should tell the MoD TTT/TTZ writers who canned the obj-195 amongst a bunch of other UVZ toys, instead of following the UVZ lobbey (or Omsk lobbey with say Burlack). Calling T15 unoriginal would have been a good idea, if you have looked into the history of development of compatible vehicles in the USSR, but hey, claiming that they have just rotated the chassis is easier.
    The issue is not that they are inadequate to that task (or that they are not funded enough) - it is that complex arms programs can take a long time to get completed.

     

    54 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

    I can probably find reasonably accurate numbers for around 2014, but these don't take any account of condition or storage as I recall.....TBH they are readily available with a bit of Google-Fu.  ;)

    Have you tried: https://lostarmour.info/ by any chance?

    Not that it would be accepted I guess, after all:
    30iyyvs.png
    289y1w9.png
    Does make the loyalists look bad.

  2. Indonesians know what they are doing. They have been using BMP3F for a while now and as I have said BT3F is better as an amphib vehicle than it's daddy - BMP3F.

    And BMP3 itself was born out of the amphib tank project:
    Object_685_in_Patriot_park.jpg
    The rear exit doors that everyone hates are there due to the rear engine placement, that improves the vehicle balance (balances out heavier front armour etc) and thus it's amphib and paradrop capabilities.

  3. 4 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

    Sorry, editied my post to add a link. 

    Only one 'e' in 'aerosols'.....With the extra one it looks kind of rude!  :D

    What makes these versions so special, if anything?  Are we sure they are just smoke generators?

    I think this is just (re)discovering a cool capability and giving it a marketting spin. Counter-IR aerosols have been around for a long time now (and not only on grenades for vehicles). There is work on giving them anti-radar capabilities too, but I do not recall those rounds being mass fielded.

  4. 3 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

    I was just searching a few sites, but they are singularly unhelpful.....Do you know anything more about the pyrotechnic devices fitted to the Lotus 120mm SPG? 

    If they can indeed defeat Javelin's IR seeker, that would be a game changer.  Presumably these are what are to be found in the directional launchers and vertical launch cells on Armata's turret?

    You mean aerosoles? Counter IR aerosoles existed since, like, Shtora (in the form of on vehicle launchers). That is one of the three major components to it, with sensors and jammers. In fact many customers drop the jammers and just keep sensors and the launchers.

  5. 6 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

    Let's do that shall we?  ;)

    Err, now I am a bit lost as to what to discuss, would you drop a topic? I may go to sleep soon though, 0001 local.
    I can drop some (low tier methodology wise WIP) pics here:
    kdqw6q.png
    fx5r8g.png
    Sadly it got canned by the editor so I never refined the comparison methodology, but, boy is bean counting fun.

  6. 12 minutes ago, IanL said:

    Discussion is not a deal. Show me the treaty ratified by the signatory nations.

     

    No, this part of the thread is people trying point out the inaccuracies in Russian Government propaganda.

    That is a weak defense, I would suggest watching Pozner to that end, for example here:


    Though I guess considering how US destroyed arms control starting with the ABM treaty and finishing now with exit from the Iran deal even if there was a formal treaty it would not have helped.

    As to propaganda - I am well aware that some of local admins have a poltical agenda so seeing simplistic "Russia bad" "Russia collapse" narratives is not surprising to me. Note who drove this thread into politics :D

  7. 4 minutes ago, IanL said:

    Exactly. This myth has certainly been pointed out as such on these forums before. It might even have been earlier in this thread. The fact that people continue to say them does not make them true.

    To be clear there never was an agreement about changes to NATO member ship. It just did not happen. The Russian Government say it exists does not make it true.

    Yes, we are well aware of the western narrative, I guess this has been argued here, with de-classified/leaked transcripts of relevant discussions cited.

    But, hey, this has already turned into "Russia bad" thread, with predictions on how Russia is going to collapse/whatever, I wonder if anyone made those predictions back in say 2014 or 2015.

  8. Err I am unsure if I would like to continue in this thead, as it has turned political and may get nuked.

    "DNR and LPR are a bunch of thugs who couldn't manage their own bank account if it weren't for Russia."
    You really shouldn't underestimate the locals, or the local Ukrainian issues.

    About the resilience of Russia and our strategy, you can find more here:
    https://frivarld.se/rapporter/drivers-of-russian-grand-strategy-2/

    As to the strategic vs tactical - essentially every political action Russia does in Ukraine is strategic in nature, if we are talking about military matters, as it forms the military-political level, from which military-technical level and military strategy comes.

  9. 12 hours ago, sburke said:

    you make the same mistake of confusing strategic, operational and tactical.  Yes in terms of force commitment you could call this "cheap".  However the impact for Russia at the strategic level has been anything but cheap.  And the locals aren't the ones "sustaining" it.  The threat of more large scale Russian intervention is what is sustaining it. 

    Cheap is relative, in this case to other options Russia has (ie occupation of Ukraine) and to our capability to sustain current strategy.


    While our forces in Russia do indeed deter Kiev loyalists from doing anything too exciting, it is the locals who are actually fighting the war currently and to that end they have built up relevant institutions such as equipment repair/maintenance, officer schools, etc. Considering the scale of their efforts it is unwise to under estimate them and reduce the whole situation to Russian intervention.

  10. Strategic, operational, tactical levels are separate and distinct. Note how you discuss them.

    The US posture in Europe was not only caused by the political limitations, it was also caused by the lack of understanding of operational level (even US's own historical experiences, note how for ALB US lifted Soviet terminology), tactical bias (generated by the career paths and mil education system, misinterpretation of German experience) and technofetishism (all too common belief that a given technology would be the deciding factor). This began, in part, to change with adoption of the ALB and culminated in the ODS, where US and it's allies conducted a classical offensive operation with envelopment of the enemy force. Note that during the ALB era it was still shaped by the above factors, the love for technological solutions and the political limitations lead to US creating depth in defense not through manuever (though counterstrokes were considered to some extend) but through deep fires (assault breakers etc).

    As to Donbas - it is a fairly low cost operation sustained by locals, with their own officer schools and other such means. Projecting the operations there during early years of the crisis with some reported homeopathic (5-7 BTGs?) intervention onto any serious modern scenario is delusional in my opinion, considering the changes in the Russian peacetime force posture which lead to Armies being arrayed for contingencies in the region, with atleast two forward deployed divisions on the pre-2014 Russia-Ukraine border, either behind two LDPR corps or on the flank of the CTO forces.

  11. 33 minutes ago, Erwin said:

    Just pointing out inconsistencies.  As you say, we have no idea if the vehicle was safe enuff to risk having passengers aboard when it went into the water.  I agree with you, probably the vehicle is a death trap.

    Well that is a strawman if I ever saw one. I never mentioned anything about it being a death trap. I was only pointing out that this is a promotional material made to look cool (whatever that may be in the eye of the video's director), not to be final evidence towards any specific capability (or lack of).

    Going after the video in the way you are doing is just silly.

    Safety wise - considering the experience of the manufacturer in making amphib vehicles, increased internal sealed volume, decrease in dense weight (no turret or relevant ammo) I would say that it is a decent fording vehicle, better than previous IFVs.

  12. 2 hours ago, Erwin said:

    Notice how the troops have lost their flak jackets when filmed going out the top when vehicle is in water.  Not very compelling promo.

    Due to the cuts you do not even know if there were dismounts within the vehicle when it went into the water. So what are you going to complain about next, the use of non standard cammo? The use of RPD? Lack of heavy backpacks etc?

  13. 3 hours ago, MikeyD said:

    In CMRT, posters sometimes ask "How do I beat Germans holed-up in dense forest surrounded by marsh?" The Soviet operational response would be "Encircle their Army group and starve them to death". Which, admittedly would not make an interesting tactical scenario.

    In one of his videos the prolific CM Youtuber 'Usually Hapless' commented that if Soviet era forces met an obstacle they were having difficulty overcoming the fighting unit could possibly find themselves stripped of resources which would be redirected elsewhere. Use what you've got to reinforce success instead of failure. Again, it would make for a particularly interesting CM tactical scenario. That guy 'Usually Hapless' seems to know his stuff

    You can run some meeting engagements and hasty defenses I guess with forward detachments post breaktrhough. But the breakthrough, especially in 1944-1945 was not particularly fun for either side.

  14. 18 minutes ago, Hapless said:

    Thanks! All that time rinsing through the university library ten years ago wasn't wasted after all!

    The ruthless concentration concept came mostly from Viktor Suvorov's "Inside the Soviet Army". Suvorov is a somewhat questionable source: he was a GRU defector trying to sell books in the West and some of the things he wrote turned out to be wrong, but his sections on tactics are fantastic, very well written(/translated) and tie in nicely with other sources and the historical record. There were some PDF links to his book around at some point, but I can't find them after a quick look.

    Rezun is a horrible source, you should discard anything he touched. The bulk of materials writen during the cold war era on Soviet tactics is not accurate, by the time the research was there to describe the Soviet tactics (much less operational level thinking) accurately the cold war ended and it no longer interested the western militaries, though from what I recall some of that research did make it's way into the1993 vintage British manuals.


    That said - some authors ie Grau (he still writes on modern Russian topics), Glantz, Armstrong etc did try to make a decent effort, you may be interested in their work.

  15. 2 hours ago, Erwin said:

    Disagree with this interpretation.  I had the impression that they (rightly) said that Cyberwar would be a large element - what does one do when all one's screens go blank?  When the water supply and or food distribution supply for one's population get disrupted?  That is not limited war.  The CM games are very limited to relatively small tactical battles, and that absence of any operational (let alone strategic) thinking is what makes the games entertaining.  But, is this the way war would be conducted on a large scale?

    I was talking about, for example, the infamous report they wrote on the Baltics.

    Not sure if your last sentence is question.

  16. RAND (and other) wargames tend to make a significant mistake - they believe that the war would be fought over limited and odly specific terrain (ie various gaps), with limited forces (bundles of brigades), focused on tactical level (brigade and below) decision making wise. Incidentally that is also how CMBS shows the war in Ukraine. As the exercises, discussions and posture show - we plan to fight the war on the operational level, with significant forces, on broad TMAs.
     

    A good video on topic:

     

  17. 28 minutes ago, sburke said:

    Wasn't using it as a particular argument for that, simply saying stated Russian capability versus the reality is sometimes quite a different kettle of fish.  Can someone show what real life Russian capability in response time is given real battlefield conditions?  US at least has some projections based on actual combat from veterans who contribute feedback to BF.  Not sure we have the same data cycle when it comes to Russian experience.

    Not without a large scale war, however you would be welcome to look into the snap drills that we now conduct fairly regularly and which include moving random brigades around ~5500km by rail.

  18. 1 hour ago, sburke said:

    It isn't just an issue of technical equipment but also in use.  Russia severely lacks the experienced NCO capability of the US forces and that significantly affects how you can use the capabilities you might have.  Sending a smoking stink hole of a carrier to support troops in Syria also didn't inspire much confidence in the "modern" Russian military.  Yeah the balance point should likely be a little more in Russia's favor particularly as their better troops would presumably be deployed for a head on conflict as represented in CMBS, but you can't ignore the reality that it is an army still struggling to transition with layers of bureaucracy and corruption impeding that transition.

    First of all - Soviet patern army does not require excellent NCO corps, because it is not built around said corps. This is reflected, for example, in how officer corps get trained in such a system.

    Second of all - Russia currently has more contract soldiers and NCOs than the consripted soldiers and NCOs, particularly in combat roles, where the bulk (around 2/3 manning) of Ground Forces units (ie across the board for line units) are now made out of the said contract soldiers and NCOs, many of whom were rotated through various combat deployments (ie aforementioned Syria). The transition has already, essentially, happened, you just seem to be living atleast 5 years in the past.


    Note that there are no "elite" small core forces made out of the contract soldiers and NCOs - they are now commonplace. Very much unlike what CMBS etc would imply, yes.

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