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ikalugin

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Posts posted by ikalugin

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    8 minutes ago, Sublime said:

    Absolutely. I cant read cyrillic and I just was reading your observation of the PRC units. Now as Im sitting on a subway with my $hit 4g connection can you explain what you mean by the Chinese mix in guns? You mean wheeled like towed or like Strykers?

    Yes, Chinese are using wheeled IFVs and wheeled mobile gun platforms, much like Stryker units, in addition to the new Type-99A tanks. A Chinese serviceman commented that the gear they are using is brand new and they only had one year to train with it.

     

    8 minutes ago, Sublime said:

    Overall whats your opinion of the PRC?

    A rising global power, that could use foreighn military experience (which we are sharing on Vostok-2018). In terms of the Ground Forces they suffer much the same problems that we do, that is - they do not have the production capacity to quickly modernise their entire force.

     

    8 minutes ago, Sublime said:

    How DO you feel this exercises relates to the Donbass anyways?

    The large multi-MD exercise could be a part of training for any number of large scale, high intensity, contingencies, for example Ukraine. Some of the units that participate on the BLUEFOR side may be a part of contingency planning for an Ukrainian operation, for example the 90th tank division from Central MD.

     

    8 minutes ago, Sublime said:

    Whats your opinion on contracter groups. Wagner group for example? But also lately in the news theres been worry amongst some Mr Prince of the now defunct Blackwater USA will convince Trump to make Afghanistan a contractor war.. Opinion?

    Expendable cost reduction for operations we want to conduct but won't conduct with the regular forces. If they screw up (die or kill civilians) we do not care, as they are technically illegal in Russia anyway. Western PMCs follow a different set of rules and overall mindset, so I don't think that they are being applied in the same way.

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    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    Can we please stay on topic?

    If you are not interested in the exercise itself (ie first use of Type-99As outside of China), we can discuss how it could be projected onto the more interesting topics, ie how Russia may plan Ukraine contingency.

    Note, the scale of the exercise is greater than the alleged scale of Russian intervention into the Ukrainian civil war (5? BTGs)

    0

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Sublime said:

    Id also like to add that at least we ID our soldiers and dont play games with un id.d roops or say miners are ordering t72s on ebay

    Same applies to SOFs in Lybia? I mean we can play this game for a while, but it would be OT. Maybe do that in another thread?

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    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

     

    6 minutes ago, Sublime said:

    NATO hasnt invaded anywhere. 

    You know that this is not true for the 1991-2018 time period.

     

    7 minutes ago, Sublime said:

    Also on the maps ubfortunately I dont read cyrillic. 

    You just need to know how to read Soviet patern maps, but I guess that is also an acquired skill.

    Now, back on topic, some of the interesting Zvezda headlines over the past two days:
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809110638-mil-ru-a28qo.html
    Over 6000 VDV troopers would participate from 3 VDV formations and 2 VDV detached regiments.
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809110709-mil-ru-uzb1v.html
    A centrally controlled detached engenier-sapper brigade would participate
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809110759-mil-ru-45vtk.html
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809111326-mil-ru-tylof.html
    The Northern Fleet has arrived to Chukotka (the bit opposite to Alaska) and would conduct amphib landings there.
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809111143-od75.htm
    New patern (OOB/TOE) VDV units would participate. The experience from the exercise would determine the further development of the service.
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809111626-i0o8.htm
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809111533-mil-ru-1ybqg.html
    A joint command a control system for the military and civilian federal services has been created in the region for the exercise, including an integrated, joint air defence C4ISR.
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809121122-mil-ru-0smq4.html
    Airpower trained getting out from under the enemy massed strike.
    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftvzvezda.ru%2Fnews%2Fforces%2Fcontent%2F201809121223-mil-ru-l0gr4.html
    Long range aviation has been conducting cruise missile launches.

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    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    https://russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/vostok-2018-day-1-september-11/

    Kofman.

    He also has a good account of West-2017, esentially it's scenario implied a west supported coloured revolution in Belorussia, where forces from the Baltics participated vs a false flag operation you imply. While Russian fears about such a scenario may seem implausible in the west they are just as real as the Western fears about the Russian invasion of Baltics.

    0

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    If you can read the map there is extensive mobile defense in depth planned. This mirrors the practical experience of 080808 war, where we had to play defensive initially and the potential Ukraine related scenarios, where we would be assisting defense by the VSN before launching a counter offensive.

    0

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    24 minutes ago, Erwin said:

    One should always have hope...

    I don't see what could get your hopes high, after all REDFOR is initially defending in the scenario, which goes to the contrary of say DPRK invasion by Russia and China.

    Plus there is the whole diplomatic dimension where things are going fine.

    0

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    The REDFOR air defenses are concentrated down south and are orientated westwards, launching (real weapons or electronically) from the east, after flanking the REDFOR from the north makes sense to me, as this is what the Northern Fleet did (they passed through the northern seaway all the way from Kola).
    Because of where those islands are and how ADIZ stretches away from national airspace into international airspace it would make sense for US to intercept bombers going towards their launch positions or from them.
    On the other hand, it makes little sense for the REDFOR bombers to fly the same path, as they could cross the "neutral" airspace with no problems on their way to BLUEFOR targets to the west.

    It is possible however that those specific bombers were participating in an unrelated exercise or patrol, but I find it unlikely, especially because we know that the Strategic Aviation participated, with Tu95MS refuelling at low alt, etc being reported, video related (but for the REDFOR bombers going after BLUEFOR targets):

     

    They are useful because they are the party that launches the supposed attack, which allows you to train both attackers and the defenders. Anti-ship mission for REDFOR or BLUEFOR is unlikely, as while their naval elements may be in the northern Pacific (close to US ADIZ in Alaska) the Tu95MS bombers are not fitted for that role presently.

    We do not really have much in terms of OPFOR, so whatever side gets the blue draw, that side plays the OPFOR (in case of CT or COIN exercises spec ops play it as a rule it seems). This is not as bad as it sounds, as our primary likely opponents are from the FSU countries (ie Ukraine) and thus it is easy for regular units to play OPFOR.

     

     

    0

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    One of the objectives of the REDFOR during the snap drills was repelling a massed cruise missile attack.

    This is consistent with previous exercises.

    Morever when you look at the bases and the aircraft trajectory it would make sense for the BLUEFOR bombers to outmanuever the REDFOR defenses, as both Northern Fleet and the Strategic Aviation play as the BLUEFOR.
    5860399_original.jpg

    5859404_original.jpg

    p.s. in addition to the air defense related stuff when defending against the massed air attack, we were also training for repairing bridges and airfields, etc.

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    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    Considering the geography of the exercise they were pretending to be the BLUEFOR (US) bombers attacking the REDFOR.
    (in Russian tradition REDFOR are the good guys)

    Which, if you think about, makes perfect sense, as US tends  to use massed cruise missile strikes in their campaighns.

    0

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    To be honest I think it is targeted at more plausible scenarios, such as 080808 style pacification of Ukraine.

    The scale is certainly right, both overall alert (~300k troops were alerted and participated in some sort of drills) and on the Cugol training grounds (REDFOR had 4 armies) because we would deploy 4-6 armies (candidates are the 1st Grds TA, 20th Grds CAA, 8th Grds CAA, 49thCAA, 2nd Grds CAA, deployed in two operational echelons and two Fronts) for such an operation.

    p.s. it is strange that this thread has been going on for days and Steve is still not here.

     

    0

    Vostok-2018

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by ikalugin

    11 hours ago, DerKommissar said:

    Opfor Cinematic Universe: Infinity War

    I doubt that they had some 25k troops, 7k equipment items and 250 helicopters and aircraft in that movie (those are the stated numbers for Cugol training area where the main focus of the exercise would be, as well as PLA/Mongolian troops)

    5855732_original.jpg

    The plan for Cugol trainin area exercsie
    1912134_1000.jpg
    Split between "eastern" and "western" forces

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