Haiduk

Reportedly on Avdiivka front "war of reserves" started in full height. Russian threw in the battle 74th motor-rifle brigade and prepare to involve own three territorial troops MRRs (form 1 to 3). Recently they began to assault Krasnohorivka town and could distract there part of 3rd assault brigade. Though this didn't bring Russians almost nothing. In current time intensive clashes are continuing on the line Berdychi - Orlivlka - Tonen'ke. These villages aren't completely controlled by any side. Map just for illustration, situation is very dynamical, positions сonstantly change hands, but interesting, Russian miliblogger with regret pointed out that "UKR frorces already don't retreat from Avdiivka, but try to fight back with reserves" Also UKR soldier in own twitter wrote the number of Russian sorties with gliding bombs significantly reduced. For yesterday only 4 strikes.

This comrade of Igor Girkin makes public an open letter of mothers and wives of servicemen of 1015th Territorial troops motor-rifle regiment from Kursk. He says secvicemen were assured they will serve only in Kursk oblast, but on peak of Avdiivka battle, regiment was divided on parts and moved to Ukraine. Servicemen were distributed to "Storm" assault units in differnet brigades and regiments, their military scecialities in documents were changed. Became knowingly from 2300 men of regiment only 30 remained intact, all other - killed, wounded or missed. This repeats other known story of 1487th territorial troops MRR of St.Peterburg, about which wrote Murz and some other milbloggers - this regiment also lost almost all personnel, so in last assaults were sent HQ and staff units.

I doubt we will loose a will to fight, but this also depends from western ammunition supply. Our authority representatives hints directly - if we don't get enough technological weapon, we will be forced to mobilize more people. Taking into account how many "old Soviet school" officers in brigade, corps and OSUV HQs, with their "you have to take this tree-plant and I don't interst how you will do this", this can lead to much more the same known episodes like 7th company of 116th brigade attack near Robotyne, when all this unit remained on battlefield...

Add here 15000 MIA and about 6000 POWs. Number of wounded from these digits I suppose 4:1, so 200K from which let 20 % were retired from service due to heavy woundings + 40K. Many of wounded soldiers were moved to rear duties. Also let take usual mech brigade of pre-war shtat. From 4500 men only about 2000 roughly are "line infantry" (three mech.battalions + one mot.inf battalion), which "sit in the trench". You can't to drive all rear services, artilelrists, drivers etc, to trenches (though in summer 2022 and now we often have this situation and this doesn't add effectiveness to brigades). Also more and more voices that enlisting of 45+ men to infantry and even to air-assault or marines units is fu...g sh...t, because these dads can't be so effective as young people, but on other hand you can see that we have "demograpy pit" among 20-30 y.o. male population, more capable to war. If you now pass a law about mobilization of 21+ you will risk to get real uprising of dissapointed and scared by skilled Russian propaganda population. Also 18-30 years generation is mostly indifferent to policy, patritiotsm, social activity - this is usual generation of consumers, affected by comfort life, globalization and cosmopoltism. Also we have not so many desparated povetry like in distant Russian regions, where people see in army service and war last opportunity to fix own financial problems even with high risk for own life. Even if Russian die on battlefield he will think "well, my family now can buy new appartment or the car"

Mobilization campaign failed + Russian PsyOps trageted on mobilization is working. Zelenskyi substitued all chiefs of oblast enlistment centers and appointed there mostly wouded officers from frontline. But this was bad decision. Corrupted chiefs didn't forget about opwn pocket, but on other hand mostly performed mobilization plan. They were "bureacrats", which knew all theses 100500 regulation papers. New chiefs not "bereaucrats", they are "warriors". They need a many time to understand all this inner "kitchen" how mobilization process is working. And substitiution didn't change such disgusting happens of abduction of people from the streets by enlistment offices patrols. These stories as well as stories from frontline about higher command doesn't carrying on about lives of soldiers, about typical soviet army "dolboyebizm", about enlistment offices, who don't interest that mobilized man would be effective soldier and send for example good specialist in radioelectronic as usual infantryman, protracted war, which contrasted with "stupid Russians" stories on TV, powerful Russian PsyOps cmapaign against government and mobilization - all this gave on fruits. Government really don't know what to do and where to take a people in order to do not cause social explosion. Now is upgrading for mobilization law is preparing, but from enough radical and tough project deputies removed many things, which can be dangerous for power stability. As a good news and right direction - military units themselves started to attackt motivated people on service via recruiting offers on different work finding boards. Some "new-type" and media-known units already have own recruitment centers ("Azov ", 3rd assault, "Da Vinci Wolves" etc) and wow - people come to them without forcing! And many young people go, which by the law can't be mobilzed (18-26 y.o), except own will. But on other hand we havn't recruitment law. And often enlistment offices and recruitment centers hadn't communication. So, now we started a way of enlistment tarnsformation, but now we at the point, when old Soviet type syetem already showed own insolvency in modern conditions, and new system is just appeared and can't maintain 100 % of army need in manpower. Other aspect - despite we have 880 000 in Defense Forces (jourmalists "rounded this number to million") - Army, National Guard, Border Guard, Police, SBU, GUR, State Special Transport Service, State Special Communication Service, many of personnel never have seen frontline. Of corse we don't talk about AD crews or techniclal specialists, or logistic service. But now the audit started in Armed Forces and already spotted 8000 servicemen, which just mobilized "as disposal of General Staff", but in real they don't serve anywhere. And this is only beginning. There are also enough units, which never (!!!) were on frontline or were there for short time and more time sit in the rear or guarding Belarus border, than fighting with Russians in that time when the same 110th brigade spent 1,5 years without rotations in Avdiivka. And this probably was another reason to substitute Zaluzhnyi.

M1150 assault breacher lost in Avdiivka area

Bradley's ERA blocks protected vehicle after ATGMs hit (likely non-tandem). One missile hit the edge of turret without detonation, the second hit side block and activated it. Reportedly Bradley still operational, crew is ok.

This may be cynically, but Krynky and recently Antonovskyi bridge bridgeheads are just a bites for attrition of Russian troops on left bank, creating of tense here to prevent Russian troops to be moved as reservers in other place. We have no enough manpower in brigades (if companies have 50 % of personnel this considers as good result) to establish more crosses simultainously and we havn't enough artillery ammunitions to cover these bridgeheads as we cover Krynky (and tnen, big part of fire support are from various drones attack). So Krynky holds a force in about 2 dispersed companies equivalent, continously rotating personnel. No sence to land there more troops under endless artillery fire and gliding bomb strikes. For Russian generals lost village is a like red rag for a bull. Higher chiefs fu..k them very tough for lost settlements, so they have no choice except to drive soldiers to assault UKR positions and to lose company by company from UKR artillery and FPVs. UKR bridgehead slowly growing up but I doubt we will increasing troops number there more that this require this growing. Probably until F-16 appear in the sky or additional long range AD assets to protect bridgehead and probable crossing ways from aircraft and missile attacks.

Vehicles of 15th motor-rifle "peacemaking" brigade from Samara. Single Russian brigade on BTRs. They recently had BTR-80, but since 2016 they gradually substituted tehm on BTR-82A. Now you can see incereaced number of BTR-80 losses in reports of Oryx team - 15th brigade due to losses again brougt back BTR-80 in service.

What interesting times are coming... Caution Germany became a locomotive of military aid, France, who wanted "to allow Putin to save his face" now allowed own SOF and other units to cross Ukrainian border. Interesting also that current commander of French Foreign Legion is ethnical Ukrainain (at least by surname) Cyrille Yushchenko.

Video

This was a rotation. BTR has took one group and disembarked other to substitute them. Looks like they waited for orders what to do next except "wait and hold this area until we say what you will do next". And these guys waited Bradley

There are no pidors in Robotyne. We knocked them out from positions lower the village, close to Novoprokopivka. It seems that they lost a desire to assault. UKR troops recaptured strongpoint south from Robotyne.

Number of Russian airstrikes from 1st of Feb to 28th of Feb

You can recall dozens Russian planes and choppers, which were "shot down" in first several months. Indeed these were either "morale boosting", or mistaken reports (target just dissapeared from radars for many reasons, but crew reported about downing), or it could be E95M aerial target jet drone, which Russia actively used during first months as false targets and our radar crews could think they lock on real aircraft or cruise missile and then to report about downing, or it could by cruise missiles. So, from there is derived "340 destroyed planes", but in real in five times less.

I doubt this is real number. Now we have next: - two confirmed Su-35 and A-50U from Russian side - the video of falling down unknown combat aircraft near Dyakove (presumably Su-34, this is mathes with COSPAS information about eject signal from this area - Su-35 was shot down significantly west from this place) - COSPAS ejection marks on the map allegedly from three Su-34 (including the one, mentioning above) - bad quality of something falling down on the screen of some SAM (StarStreak?) claimed as Su-34 - just a claims of shot down jets. So, we have 3 100 % confirmed, 2 with high probability confirmed, 2 allegedly confirmed by COSPAS marks and rest 4 just unverified claims

Russian milbloggers write two UKR HIMARS hit the ceremony of awarding of 155th naval infantry brigade personnel in Olenivka (near Volnovakha). Reportedly 19 KIA, 12 WIA. Among killed three high-ranked officers, including deputy commander of brigade. The commander of brigade was wounded.

Interesting thread from UKR serviceman from engineer-position building unit of engineer brigade (these units subordinated to Support Troops Command, not to Ground Forces Command) about why unlike Russians UKR forces have so poor fortifications (if they were built after the big war started), which often dig hastily with shovels and limided engineer means of brigades instead to be prepared beforehand by engineer troops of Support Command. 1. Why we have so small number of useful fortifications. According to General Staff directive of Marh 11 2016 the infantry unit, seizing area of defense is a disposer of defense lines, and the performer of works of building and equipping of this defense line is Support Forces, which have to do it according to requests of infantry brigades engineer service chiefs. 2. Many of chiefs of infantry brigade engineer services do not know how to plan ahead and send requests to Support Command untimely. When I arrive on the place, I have neither a map nor enginner justification of positions. As a rule I hear some sort: "Dig here from the stump to tree-plant". But this is not work in this way. The defense must be continous. Ше must have a depth and the enemy hadn't to bypass it. But infantry engineers in stupid way don't know how to plan this and we have to do it themselves or even to shut up and to gig there, where they to tell, because your business is to shut up and execute. 3. Why is thete no concrete? According to the order of Engineer Troops Chief and a resolution of Chief-in -Command of July 4 2017, the character of defensive positions determinates by Operative Tactical Groupment Commands - OTU (wood cladding) and Operative Strategical Troops Groupment Commands - OSUV (pouring with a concrete) after appropriate request of the infantry unit, seizing defense area. Wood is provided by Engineer seervice of OTU, and concrete and technic are provided by OSUV. The second defense line have to be cladded with a wood and the thired defense line with a concrete. Why there is no this, because, again, brigade's engineer services have no will to denand this and OTU have no money, because deals (author used a word more corresponding to "frauds") with a wood is a separate theme. 4.Concerning a concrete - I report. There is no one engineer unit doesn't supply with corrwsponding technic (like and NATO too). These works performs civilian technic, but this is contracts with business. Moscovites just rob technic for works, but we can't do in such way. And again - where is third defense line should be? No one infantry brigade on East didn't provide a project. 5. Where are the tractors? According to numerous directives, orders, normative documents to maintain the defense line have to a units of Support Forces with a supply of infantry units. Alas, an excavator doesn't work on the water - it needs a diesel, and soldier, who works in it have to rest somewhere and to eat something, 6. As result - with all my respects to engineer services of 110th, 47th, 53rd brigades, you guys are guilty themselves, that your troops hadn't proper trenches. And to all other collegues in Twitetr I recommend to study documents and contact the proper address. 7. Concering to our work. We work from 6:00 to 17:00 and build continuosly, having more poor funding and more vulnerable technic. Pay attantion, there are many fundrising requestes, but no one engineer unit doesn't ask about a tractor or excavator. Because we undcerstand - the needs of infantry is more important. But instead the infantry for some reasons considers us as useless appendage

Russians continue own offensive in Donetsk oblast. Heavy clashes in Orlivka village west from Avdiivka. Our soldiers report about numerous Russian infantry, accumulating on eastern outskirt of the village and clashes in the center. Russians have small, but steady advance in Bohdanivka and Ivanivske north from Bakhmut. Though, reportedly Russians already threw in the battle own reserve - elements of 31st air-assault brigade have been beginning to involve additionally to 98th airborne division, operating there in full composition. Russian artillery and aviation are striking Chasiv Yar. Russian troops (mosltly DNR units) could to seize small SE part of Krasnohorivlka town north from Maryinka. They had a time to gain foothold there, but 3rd assault brigade later counter-aatcked them by elements of 1st and 2nd assault battalions and in fierce house-to-house clashes restored positions. 3rd brigade press-service say Russian soldiers rejected to surrender and were all eliminated or wounded. Total number of Russian losses there about 100 KIA/WIA. On the map are Russian gains in Krasnohorivka before 3rd assault brigade attack.

Not only S-400. Russians have super-long-range AA missiles R-37, carring by MiG-31BM with 200 km of range and R-37M with 300 km of range for Su-35 and Su-57. There were several episodes, that these missiles have been shooting down UKR planes and helicopters far from frontline.

On press-conference Zelenskyi told Ukraine lost 31 000 soldiers KIA. But he rejected to say how much soldiers were wounded and missed. Also according to January information about 6400 servicemen were POWs and about 2700 were exchanged. He also told Russia lost 180 000 KIA and their total losses with wounded is about 500 000. The number 31 000 is corresponding with November 2023 information from "Memory book" initiative, claimed about 23500 of KIA, whose names could be established. Also 15 000 MIA was claimed by this initiative and more than 4600 POWs

Budanov said today the operation planning of A-50 hunting has took about two weeks. If Russia lost the third A-50 they will be forced to stop 24 hours flights, when one plane substitute other in the air. Thus, we can make conclusion, next step will be hunting for the third A-50.

Yesterday I posted Russian video, how Russians of 70th MRR disembark infantry from two BMP-3 near ruined post office in Robotyne. Many people became to share a panic "Robotyne is lost" (Julian Roepke in the first flight as always) But morning is coming and here UKR video of aftermath of this disembarking (first part of video is Russian, then - Ukrainian with backround song "I'm Russian" as a mockery) Serviceman of probably 65th mech.brigade writes from there: Robotyne is under AFU control We drove out pidors at the morning

Especailly interesting, knowing that Sweden is handing over 10 Stridsbåt 90 armored assault landing boats ... and 20 Gruppbåt By the way Stridsbåt 90 was a specimen for Russian Raptor class and BK-16 class boats of different purpose - assault landing, patrol, anti-sabateur. Probably Sweden gave production license, or Russia bought a boat to develop own project on its base.

There was no Il-22 in this time. The story about it was shot down too was shared through social media because of confused information issue from Air Force Command. They meant incident of Jan 14, when first A-50 was destroyed and Il-22 damaged, but this has sounded like incident of Feb 23, especially on background of reports from locals, that two planes fell down (but this turned out A-50, teared off on two burning parts). Officially UKR claimed only one A-50U in that day