kraze
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Posts posted by kraze
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22 minutes ago, Khalerick said:
To me it screams Russia fighting the war on the cheap
I'm not sure losing half of the whole tank force (when comparing to numbers on paper, probably much more than that in reality) and completely wasting 80% of its tactical missile reserves is "cheap".
Russia is forced to buy back its own old artillery shells from DPRK - not sure if they give a high discount to make it cheap.
And also that minor, little thing of having total (aka "partial") mobilization going on for the past half of a year where they grab people off the streets sometimes literally (as evidenced by videos).
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17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Speaking of Russia's manpower problems... from yesterday's ISW report:
Two things here. First is that Russia seems to understand, finally, that it's prewar force size is completely inadequate for fighting in Ukraine AND doing everything else it was doing before the war. Not only is ISW understandably pessimistic that Russia has the ability to pull off such an enlargement in terms equipping and administering, but it is also quite sour on the notion that Russia can physically gather that many men at all. Given the obvious problems with the first partial mobilization, those doubts are well founded.
Then they move onto more evidence of how difficult it will be for Russia to raise any significant amount of manpower without major difficulties:
We've seen this sort of thing reported elsewhere using Russian sources as the basis. Russia is using its "captive audience" of people who are readily known and easily identified as the potential source for the next mobilization. This is state cannibalism at work.
More evidence of this in the next 2 paragraphs:
If Russia has hundreds of thousands of reservists ready to go, it sure seems like they're having to look pretty hard to find them.
Then there's this tidbit from the UK MoD that indicates Russia has a serious national manpower problem even before this next wave of mobilization starts:
It seems that prisoners are going to be used for military related labor for production just as they have for fighting. If Russia has such huge, great, and amazing manpower reserves... kinda odd that in less than one year of war they are so tapped out that they have to use convicts to fight and work in factories.
Lastly, no discussion about Russia manpower is complete without mentioning its poor quality.
Milbloggers are suggesting that untrained recruits be given leadership positions if they show signs of being motivated to fight. Oh boy, that says a lot about how bad things are that they are making suggestions like that.
To summarize... Russia's endless manpower pool is a myth, just like it's endless tank and artillery pools are myths. Russia might still have lots of all of this stuff left to throw in the fight, but we've seen it scraping the barrel well before now and we're entering a whole new year with yet more scraping sounds.
Steve
Worth noting that all the stockpiles were made by USSR to occupy the planet (or at least a huge chunk of it) by smashing whole combined NATO army - not to have all of it wasted completely on a formerly occupied country without much effect.
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27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
Forcing Belarus to enter the war and invade Ukraine is definitely a option below nuclear escalation. Is it stupid? Yes, extremely so but still a option.
Belarus hasn't entered the war yet? Good. Irpin and Bucha is just a bad dream then. Missiles and drones they launched at us are also just a fruit of my imagination I guess.
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Russian soldier had old Soviet police scale body armor ZhZL-74, which protects only against cold steel.
At least we found that mythical decent russian invader our tolerant friends keep talking about - that definitely was a whole sir knight right there. Let's hope the good knight's sword is not far from his other body parts.
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49 minutes ago, Seminole said:
At some point we’re in danger of ‘sanctioning’ ourselves.
Isn't russia a very good lesson of what happens when you rely on your enemy too much for important things?
Sure in the case above it's just a genocidal gas station that produces nothing else but gas and death, but China is certainly a lot more and when it decides to go to war and pull the plug on your goods - you may not get to "sanction yourself" in time.
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12 minutes ago, MikeyD said:
The first thought that came to mind is they should declare victory, claim they achieved whatever the 'political' goals were for the war (just make something up), then pack their bags and go home. That's basically how most stalemated wars eventually end. Sometimes the process takes 8-10 years to reach that point, but that's only for countries with the financial wherewithal to sustain the effort for so long.
That wouldn't work. To a common russian victory is only when Ukraine is no more.
They went into this war declaring that they will occupy whole Ukraine in 3 days - how exactly losing the war and leaving all territories including Crimea can be considered "victory" by a common russian, on which putin's dictatorship (and life) depends?
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42 minutes ago, Butschi said:
I even agree that dehumanizing Russians is a tool used by Ukraine.
Before 2014 90% Ukrainians considered russians to be OK.
Now only 11% (which is 11% too many). No idea what happened. We just got pissed all of a sudden at good people.
But I guess when a rapist inserts his dick into the victim and the victim cries for help - she's just using a tool to dehumanize the attacker, naughty girl.
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43 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
That right does not imply that all Russian soldiers must necessarily be evil though.
So these soldiers are killing Ukrainians because they are being good people then?
No seriously tell me - how the hell a guy who took a gun and came here to kill me, my relatives, my friends - is NOT evil?
This is a serious question - because I perfectly understand why russians are what they are. But I just don't get people from the West who watch someone kill, rape, steal and say "well maybe he's a good person". How does it connect in your head man?
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1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:
I've said this since the first week of this war, and it's still true:
Kill Putin's ego, end the war.
There is virtually no other valid reason to continue this war, except Putin's ego and self-serving desires.
putin decides literally nothing at this point. Russians would tear him apart should he try to order a full retreat. It's not "putin's war".
He allowed russians to be russian, to finally let what they suppressed for 30 years out - the barbaric nature of their culture. Russians are out for blood and trying to somehow punish only one of them has no effect at this point.
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8 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
You do not understand, everything is not so clear
In general, I am amazed at the level of Russian propaganda in Europe.
At first, the Russians thought they could take over Ukraine without the help of their propaganda machine. But after their plan failed, they turned on propaganda at full capacity and, as we see, the result was not long in coming. I think the situation will only get worse in the future.
It must be obvious to any sane person that when somebody takes a weapon and goes to another man's house to kill him to take that house for himself - that that somebody cannot be a "decent person" by any definition.
No amount of propaganda can change this fact.
Only if the person himself thinks that somehow killing and stealing is above "decent". Propaganda may only add fuel to that world view.
And even then the fact is - there's simply no possible excuse for russian soldiers being here - therefore it's absolutely normal that they all must die since they don't want to stop killing Ukrainians.
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23 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
And another funny question for you as a resident of a prosperous European country. What might be of interest to a hypothetical volunteer from Denmark in a broken Ukrainian house? toilet bowl, bathroom sink, washing machine, vacuum cleaner?
I mean unlike russians he can afford a car to fit that all in
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1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:
Well, I'm 100 pct sure some of them ARE orks and deserve a bad fate. But I'm also sure not all of them are. I'm not going to sit here and look at videos of people getting blown to bits and cheer because I make myself believe I can judge them and their character from a drone view.
What the hell is this? Any russian soldier came to Ukraine with weapons to kill Ukrainians - but that soldier somehow may be a decent person? Are you effing serious?
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happy new year to all the russians who got dead
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On 12/26/2022 at 11:15 PM, Haiduk said:
Thank you ) Orthodox and Greco-catholics celebrate in Ukraine on 6-7th Jan, because we have difference between secular (Gregorian) and church (Julian) calendars. So, despite all churches celebrate on 25th Dec in secular world we have two weeks of difference. But in Ukraine since past year a discussion has started about western choice demands from churches switching to Gregorian calendar and 25th together with 7th was claimed as an official holiday. This year brought huge support for Christmss on 25th, mostly because "do not have any common with Russia", so Orthodox Church of Ukraine and Greco-Catholic churches made a statement they will establish a workgroup in order to develop proper decisions up to 2025 and prepare own people. Alas, many even pro-Ukrainian believers, especially in western Ukraine roughly stick for 7th Jan, because "this is our tradition", though they just don't want understand why this difference appeared and that their church really celebrates Christmass on 25th, but according to "old style".
Religion in Ukraine is a part of political life, because more than 60% relate themselves to Christians, so it is matter what words theese people can hear from priests.
We have two Orthodox churches - pro-Russian UOC MP (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy) and pro-Ukrainian OCU (Orthodox Church of Ukraine), recognized by Konstantinopol Patriarch in 2018, which caused effect of exploded bomb in Russia, because church, subordinated to Moscow was one of element of influence of Russia on Ukraine and keeping it in own orbit. UOC MP still have huge influence in Ukraine not only among usual people, but also among politics and officials. Now SBU raiding and their churches and finds there tons of Russian symbolics, anti-Ukrainian, antisemitic and stupid conspiracy books and other materials, issued by Russian church.
Also we have Greco-Catolic church, combining Orthodox rite and subordinating to Pope. Recently it considered like mostly western ukrainian phenomenon, but in last years it spread own parishes far to the east. Greco-catholic church in western Ukraine in own time has played the same role that Catholic church in Poland, keeping national identity and spirit.
Also we have Catholic community, most of their believers are in western Ukraine among ethnic Poles, but in last years Catholic community grows and on other territory, especially in Kyiv. My wife,for example is catholic and works in Catholic Institute, so we are celebrating two Christmass with our parents )
Worth noting that "do not have any common with Russia" has nothing to do with it. When Lenin became the new emperor of Russia - one of his first decrees was to actually not have anything in common with the evil capitalist west - so the decision was made to move to a "new calendar" - and so russians started celebrating Christmas on Jan 7th and New Year on Jan 13th. Yes it was that damn stupid - it was like Jan 12th 1918 and then Jan 13th 1919. So eventually they had to bring back Jan 1st as New Year to make things a little less retarded. But they kept Jan 13th as "Old New Year" day so nice try. And that's how Christmas after New Year came to be which is even more 'nice try'.
So when russians finished occupying Ukraine in 1921 - they forced us to celebrate Christmas on Jan 7th, but most Ukrainians still celebrated it the right way way into the 1930s.
So it's about restoring the Ukrainian way of celebrating Christmas.
Also Stalin replaced Santa with a murderous frost demon in 1937 that killed people left and right instead of putting coal into the sock - but that's just a bonus to underline how messed up things were.
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On 12/4/2022 at 3:49 PM, Beleg85 said:
Unlike in Russia, all polls and believeable info shows extremely low support for war among general population. We don't know true support for regime except it was low enough to almost topple it in 2020- scale of it was nothing like Russian "oppositon marches" in 2012. Almost whole civilized world agreed that Belarussians showed middle finger to Lukashenka during elections, which were of course heavly falsified (again, unlike in Russia, where Putin still could probbaly win legally even if real democratic procedures existed). You also skipped the fact that population was pacified before the war- long-lasting wave of protests 2 years ago that was widely, brutally repressed by regime, more in fact than Russian liberals ever were. And yet, they lasted for several months. That's why Lukashenka power is so fragile, even Putin most probably knows it is not prudent to gamble on their support for war.
Also unlike Russians, Belarussian opposition actually communaly do something with their fate. How it is that they field entire strong regiment in Ukraine alone, while much cherished "Russian Legion" is several persons? There were dozens of high public figures and diplomats turning on Lukashenka's power. Even now they are organizing here basic shooting trainings for emigree civilians in case they would need them, according to Belsat TV (who shouldn't betray such info btw.) there were hundreds if not thousands of participants.
Yes, that's how it looks in western media. 10 mln of poor belarussians being oppressed by a single evil Lukashenko that has no popular support. It's a very cozy, comfortable worldview that so many had towards russians back in March but "sadly" was stripped away, isn't it?
It's also helped by the fact that in western world you don't have the "luxury" of talking to belarussians, who, after yet another attack on our people from THEIR territory, come to our groups and start condescendingly "supporting" us, telling us how they are sorry and how they are all victims of the occupation just like us. Oh yes getting paid for providing dentist services to those whole 9000 russian mobiks that your military buddy living across the street also trains for money - in a well lit, warm town is absolutely the same as dying to their bombs in Mariupol. Imagine the horror of getting paid by russians themselves to deliver looted washing machines back to Russia, how can anyone survive that?
Maybe I just don't get how anti-war they are because they aren't writing "we are victims just like you" on artillery shells they keep delivering to Russia.
So yeah keep living in your pretty fantasy world with evil dictators and poor oppressed population, I will just keep considering belorussians to be absolute effed up assholes they really are.
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On 12/4/2022 at 5:18 PM, sburke said:
not a single fact in there, just your usual characterizations with that broad brush.
no different from you telling me that people who are invading my country are in fact against the invasion then
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11 hours ago, sburke said:
i think your bias is showing again. Folks from Belarus are fighting in UKr army, Belarus citizens have been arrested for sabotaging rail network and there is a significant Belarus opposition movement. You'll need to back up your statements with some facts to counter that.
I'm sorry - "bias"? Seriously?
Folks from Russia are fighting in Ukrainian army too. So that means russians are against the war? Of course not. Same for belarussians.
Folks from Belarus are fighting in Ukrainian army. But have you ever wondered why are they here? You know - HERE. In Ukraine. Does it make any sense if you think about it? Shouldn't they be fighting their own government then? But they are not. Do you know why? Because they are outcasts, hated by their own population and considered traitors by the typical belarussian citizen.
As for "sabotaging rail network" - I'm sorry but putting two logs on top of a rail, making a few photos of it is not "sabotaging", especially while the rest of your population provides russian soldiers with: food, medical treatment, supplies incl. military like ammunition and weapons and accommodations. To this very day.
Oh and did belarussians sabotage much of the rail which belarussians in belarussian delivery services used to deliver looted washing machines and electric teapots to their new russian "owners"?
You see even if we do believe that "sabotage" wasn't just a staged discount attempt to pull Belarus from under incoming sanctions (and when they happened regardless - all "sabotaging" stopped) - you seem to think that if 10 or 20 people are doing something differently from the majority - it suddenly whitewashes the whole majority.
It does not.
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21 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Yeah, I wonder what those snakes are up to. We have evidence that Belarus already sent it's artillery ammo to Russia, so any conventional attack would be a disaster. It also sets up a military coup, potentially. Maybe RU has put loyalists in all the highest command positions, but majors & colonels sometimes lead military rebellions. I am more worried about missiles & other mischief coming from there. Or it's just another amateur ploy, trying to get UKR to move troops to the border.
If Belarus did cross the border then Lukashenko will receive whatever sanctions & penalties that Russia has. It also is an escalation that UKR allies could use as pretext to send longer range missiles.
Belarus is a russian ally, there will be no coup, just like there was no coup in Italy in 1943. Russians and belarussians are training together and belarussians happily provide logistics to train russian mobiks. Belarus is already taking part in the war and there's zero opposition to it from both military and general population. They just know their army alone is not numerous enough to make any difference (whole army of Belarus across its whole border is smaller than what we have on the northern border).
Their whole army is 60k or so, which means they can dedicate 20k troops at most. Russians had 3-4 times more in the north and we know how well that went.
Unless russians send them 100k of their own to help - no invasion is happening (or it gets to be very short lived). But spare 100k troops isn't something russians even have at this point.
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2 hours ago, Zeleban said:
The electricity situation in Irpen has become very difficult. For example, yesterday there was no light for a whole day. Therefore, in order to continue working (I work remotely), I decided to move for a while to my parents' apartment in Kriviy Rig. Here the situation with light is much better. On the way, I saw a column of FH70 howitzers being towed by Iveco trucks. It looked impressive.
Yep, we ordered a petrol generator and Starlink here and gonna move to gf's parents' house in Cherkasy area so we can keep working. russians ruin everything
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39 minutes ago, womble said:
The Russian people in general aren't. Their kleptocrat masters, though... at least they were; perhaps that's changed now.
Dunno, russians are much happier when civilian infrastructure is bombed and civilians are killed than when their army actually takes some small village. So now they are definitely getting more of their investment back than even their kleptocrat masters
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1 hour ago, Huba said:
Speaking of the missile attacks, the next wave didn't materialize yet, did it?
Too soon.
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12 hours ago, Huba said:
AFAIK Ukrainians report the number of killed, not overall casualties, though it is not very believable. The 100K number seems to come from gen. Milley, who said that "Russians suffered 100K casualties, and Ukrainians probably a similar number", or something like that. We'll know after the war I guess.
If it wasn't very believable and casualty numbers for russians included wounded, not just dead - russians wouldn't be running total mobilization, considering their whole standing army pre-mobilization is 800k. Losing 100k dead and wounded would've meant nothing and they wouldn't need to conscript anyone else for the past 4 months. However with 100k KIA and 300-400k WIA - total mobilization is mandatory.
Likewise if Ukraine suffered 1:1 casualties of russians (e.g. 100k exactly KIA "officers") - russians would've been somewhere near Ternopil at this point, not losing huge chunks of ground monthly instead.
They have a bottomless pit of zero life value serfs, we don't.
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14 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Were the countries to which the units you listed belonged recognized as accomplices of terrorism?
In your opinion, can a US citizen who is fighting for the country an accomplice of terrorism be punished?
If USA recognized Russia for what it is - sure. But just yesterday they mentioned they won't do it.
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2 hours ago, Butschi said:
Apart from everything else I may think about that topic: While this may give you some sense of justice, in the end just comes back to bite Ukraine. Apart from being bad PR, it leads to Russian soldiers thinking they have nothing to gain from surrendering (Putin's propaganda will make sure of that). And soldiers who fear they will be killed or tortured or whatever when captured are likely to stay in the fight longer. That in turn inevitably leads to more Ukrainian casualties.
I believe you give russian soldiers, propaganda effects on them and their logical conclusions way too much credit. To them any land they invade is a place to rob and let out their frustration and sadistic needs, so they don't need any more reasons from propaganda to do it other than that they simply can.
And it's not about some "justice", it's about acknowledging the probability of faked russian surrenders. Since the start of the full scale invasion russians have been coming at our troops waving white flags, but as they came close enough - they were opening fire point blank leading to a huge loss of life. We lost many many people this way. Add to that soldier's growing, untreated PTSD for 9 months due to brutal fighting, witnessing actual russian warcrimes times the number of faux white flags - and you know it may never equal any other outcome once gunfire happens in the middle of surrender. It's just the reality of things that will not get better until this is over.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by kraze
russians do mobilize young men just as much, don't forget about autumn conscription, which this time was basically mobilization under another name. They get about 200k (on paper, as is usual in Russia) future young war criminals semi-annually anyway - in orderly fashion.