hcrof

I wonder if it is just easier to bring trainloads of artillery shells there so they attack because they can press the artillery advantage?

The problem is that mines and artillery probably account for the majority of kills in this war. Also doesn't trophy use radar? So now you are just broadcasting "kill me" for any sensor in the area. And that is before we talk about swarms, hypervelocity rockets etc

I am also moving away from a "tanks are obsolete" position, but given the high attrition rates of tanks I am not very keen on 70tonne monsters with 4 crew members which will just be knocked out by a hundred types of modern weapon (aps is a distraction imo). We need larger numbers of lighter tanks, preferably with fewer crew (or none!).

Just like the physical fighting, the Russians have been cyber-attacking Ukraine since 2014 (and already took down the power network before) so I assume Ukraine is pretty resilient by now.

The styrofoam is almost certainly being used as formwork to shape the dragons teeth and a bit just stuck to the concrete as they pulled it out. Thanks for the explanation btw, that was well put

I wonder how easy it would be to hold a city with a population that is so eager to be liberated and has plenty of opportunities to communicate with the outside world? I know the Russians cut the internet lines but I imagine the Ukrainians might already be smuggling in weapons and Comms equipment while the front lines are relatively long and porus - there have been rumours of occasional firefights in the city over the last few weeks...

I think the point is that you need engineering equipment to breach these defenses, so they would be effective against the "dagger" style raids the UA is using. A prepared attack with engineering assets is easier to spot and disrupt with artillery so in principle I think these defenses can be effective.

I believe that is an anti tank ditch, not a trench

Seems like the US army is looking at my hunter concept already!! https://youtu.be/aD6YhuU0id0

Did you read what Butschi said? It is possible to condemn russian atrocities while warning against going too far and becoming just as bad as the Kremlin propagandists. What about the Russians who are horrified by the war and are organising against it? What about the Russians fighting for Ukraine right now? We must not become the monster we condemn.

Can anyone comment on this Twitter thread? Seems to imply the Kherson front is reaching a breaking point, but the maps are not nearly as good as Grigb's: https://mobile.twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1570740207892434946

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations I think this article, while written very early on in the war, is still relevant.

That would be a dangerous move - Putin does not control Wagner directly and they are as likely to turn on him than any other actor (if not more so)

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but it sounds like we agree? I thought that the 79th MRR pulled back out of the line and the rest of that list were not capable of stopping the UA advance because they had few heavy weapons and could not coordinate with artillery? At that point the UA broke through and a few days later the regular troops around izium largely pulled out, leaving a lot of equipment behind them.

Thanks for the clarification, but I thought the regular units were in the south around izium and they mostly pulled out once the breakthrough happened north of them? Edit: so the actual fighting was mobiks, left behind Rosgvardiya and rear echelon troops?

If so, that is very bold - but the UA general staff have been very impressive so far.

On the whole tank thing, I also refer back to my earlier point that the UA are currently fighting mobiks and policemen more than modern troops. It's all very Afghanistan 2001 rather than a heavy metal war in that area.

Agreed, they may have been used in the initial punch but the exploitation forces look very light.

I am delighted that the Russians are folding like a wet paper bag, but it seems that sector was thinly defended by policemen and 60yo mobiks with no heavy weapons or mobile reserve. I would not say the Ukrainians have proved much yet beyond basic competence at this stage (which might be enough if the Russians are truly spent). Edit: what I am trying to say is that what works in izium might not work against anything more than a token defense - that is yet to be proven at this Stage. All the more reason to provide more support to the UA.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1565021606316949504?s=20&t=f3tw1iEZOgiSuJwmkUbObA

Have we seen any m113s in combat? Or are they equipping a fresh unit that hasn't been committed yet?

Ok, here is a more developed concept for a tank-like system for the modern battlefield. The observer/hunter/killer team. The purpose of the system is to punch through enemy defenses and exploit the rear, or it can be used defensively. Killer: as per the concept above. It remains behind cover at all times and destroys enemy vehicles and strongpoints with its gun-mortar and atgm at ranges 5-10km. Hunter: a light tank with IR and visual sensors, as well as the ability to deploy a small drone for scouting. It is small and light, with a 3 man crew and front armour that can withstand 30mm fire. Its main armament is a quick firing 15-20mm cannon (think ciws), with a few starstreak missiles. Using its sensors it can detect enemy drones and shoot them down. It can suppress and destroy infantry and if it encounters a heavy vehicle it calls the killer vehicle which destroys it. If the enemy launches an atgm, the IR sensor will automatically detect the launch and the cannon will shoot the missile down. APS is the final line of defence. Observer: travels just behind the hunter. Another small vehicle which is basically just a drone carrier. Its job is to search every potential enemy position in advance so it can be destroyed by the killer vehicle or artillery. Combine that team with mechanised infantry to secure the terrain and clear out urban areas. In this way the team can push forward a dense ISR bubble while degrading that of the enemy. The gun-mortar provides prompt integrated fires that will destroy enemy vehicles while the hunters deal with infantry and atgm teams. The lightweight vehicles are fast and mobile with reduced logistical requirements.

What about a 2S9 Nona with a sensor mast, Spike NLOS missiles and a fleet of drones? It would be cheap, mobile, always in defilade and could rain hell down on any enemy up to 10km away.

If you have enough intelligence superiority to destroy the enemy reserve armour (or those cool buggies with atgms that would be faster and just as lethal) then why do you even need tanks? Just blast the enemy with artillery or air power. On the other hand, that artillery or some truck mounted brimstones will mess up your armour push quite nicely as you have kind of flushed yourself out. That's assuming you managed to catch every infantry squad before you get attritted by their AT weapons. A well equipped Ukrainian (or NATO) squad is carrying multiple javelins/NLAWs each which is more AT firepower than a full cold war company.

I look at that new Australian (?) Drone that can be launched out of a 40mm grenade launcher and I am starting to think that 40mm kamikaze drones with some form of image recognition would be a game changer. They could be launched en mass at an enemy position and they independently seek and kill anyone nearby. They could be fired by infantry small arms or dropped as a cluster munition. Yes they are an expensive way to kill someone, but probably still cheaper than a barrage of 155mm or even thousands of rounds of 5.56. And scarily easy to use...