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It looks like they will only get 3 weeks training in the UK - I am not sure how much they can learn in that time? I mean it is great that the UK is offering training, but is it not better to have a more stability rather than getting flown out of basic training for 3 weeks in a foreign country? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

Those are some big numbers almost 1000 artillery pieces a month is probably more losses then the whole Soviet Union took in WW2!

I'm not sure, of course it is possible but I get the impression that many Moldovan people would rather be rid of the place since it is not ethnically or linguistically Moldovan/Romanian but rather a 5th column of Russians that would damage their democracy and prospects of EU membership.

Thanks Grigb, how do the RU nationalists think that they will "lose" Transdniestria?

Is is possible to make tochka-u missiles artisanally? They are pretty crude tech and it might be possible to use a 3d printer and a couple of raspberry pi computers to make an Ersatz Version?

Thanks Grigb, really interesting insights! Do you think there is a genuine shift in the narrative on the Russian side, or is it still just the usual grumbling we have heard from the start?

I think that you can do a lot with a Rak type system - with tight drone integration it can scoot around causing chaos and could even fire smart ammunition to function as a tank hunter. In fact, a small/armoured/unmanned version of this is what I think of when I think of a new "tanklike" UGV: depress the barrel for direct fire against APCs, indirect smart fire against tanks and mortar capability/MG against infantry.

This is largely correct, you would be able to drive heavier vehicles over the bridges official rating if you had to, but the bridge would need a proper inspection first, then as you say you would go one-by-one. Using a tank transporter to spread the load would also help. It may also be possible to reinforce a bridge to increase its rating (or compensate for poor maintenance), but that adds even more time (maybe a month to get a design together) and complexity. The other thing is that engineers can either work fast or work efficiently - you need a lot of spare engineers sitting around if you want a fast response in this sort of thing.

I wonder to what extent politicians are concerned about images of NATO tanks burning on the battlefield? Artillery is not well known by the general public (and harder to hit anyway) but destroyed leopards and Abrams might raise questions.

I know that Gepard style vehicles were abandoned in the west because they were not seen as very effective against fixed wing aircraft, but given russian tactics in this war I think that assumption may need to be revisited. The Russians seem to favour low level strafing which is exactly what an autocannon can effectively deal with.

Russian planes are flying very low to avoid long range air defenses like S-300. A Gepard is short ranged but quick to react to a low flying target so would probably be very effective in this context.

That is a very selective reading of the facts to justify his obvious position that Ukraine should just accept anything Russia imposes on them and the west should say sorry to Russia for opposing their unprovoked invasion. I think it is clear to all that Ukraine is taking ruinous casualties and economic damage, but Russia is hurting bad too or they wouldn't be using t-62s and 1960s era "precision missiles". If Ukraine still wants to fight we should give them what they need. The russian state is a menace and crippling it is very much in the west's best interest.

With GMRLS, you could potentially just fire 1 rocket a day at a random piece of track and shut the line down permanently for minimal cost!

I've always wondered if that is actually effective or just a quick way to wear out your main gun...

That's a pretty nice concept actually - the key is to make them cheap enough to fit on every APC in my opinion and that looks quite simple

This is actually quite a hard problem to solve atm: They are too small to hit with unguided fire They don't have a big enough IR signature for a stinger type missile If you tune your radar to be able to spot them you will be overwhelmed by false positives from birds and ground clutter It looks like missiles like starstreak are designed with drones in mind, which is why they have a complicated semi-manual aiming system, and AAA or even "mad minute" small arms fire can just about manage, but they are far from reliable and it's easy enough to just send another drone. I can see a lot more light AAA and starstreak type missiles in the near future as a counter, or even anti-drone drones! Edit: and lasers - everyone is going for lasers like crazy to shoot down drones (among other things) but they aren't quite there yet

I was going to laugh, but actually it might not be terrible armour protection? I imagine if an atgm hits at a relatively frontal angle, going through a material with lots of voids in it (i.e a box of rocks) would break the jet up a bit before it hits the real armour? I think it would be much less effective at side hits though.

My understanding is that they were vital in the first few weeks - they were handed out like candy to the TD guys and they could effectively stop tanks with little training. Nowadays with the Russians more cautious, I would say they are less effective but the threat remains so they know they can't just tank rush anymore. They don't need to score kills to be effective - their presence is enough to slow down enemy attacks so they can be killed by artillery.

I really hope this is just a joke and they plan to mount that gun on an APC or something...

I'm not sure a one sentence comment is gonna change anyone's mind here. Happy to hear a russian perspective but it needs to be a properly constructed arguement.

Has anyone else noticed that while russian tank losses have decreased from about 10 a day to about 3 a day, their artillery losses have increased from 2-3 a day to about 9 a day? This has happened over the last 2 weeks or so from memory. Im not sure what it means but it seems to be a good thing - fewer tank targets and more effective UA CB fire? Or maybe the pressure is off a bit and UA artillery has more time to hunt russian guns?

On this point, life may have been cheaper in the old days but before the French Revolution noone would sacrifice themselves for the glory of some abstract ideal like a king - soldiers were strictly mercenary. The idea of sacrificing yourself for any entity larger than your own village or town is a very modern thing and in this era of mass media and competing ideologies (yep we are back there again) I would say it's not dead yet. Edit: I forgot about the Muslim conquests but it's almost the exception that proves the rule.

To be honest, the narrative here is more important than the truth and Russia has been determined to push that narrative. There is another option, that Russia tried for a coup de main, with the option of holding Kiev on the one hand or just installing a new government and leaving if civil resistance looked like it was too strong. Even if that new government subsequently fell, the punitive effect would remain and Ukraine would become more compliant in the future. Looking forward to the final verdict as history is written...

It is very interesting to see the disconnect between what the Chinese say and what they do at this point. I am not sure that tension is sustainable in the long term but I have no idea which direction they will eventually turn.

It really is hard to read, and so obviously nonsense from a western perspective, but it is the official party line and as far as I know that is the story being fed to 1.4 billion Chinese people. I was very interested in the article you posted, but I don't want to fall into the trap of wishful thinking. Even if that guy won the debate and Xi changed from a hard-line russiophile to a softy liberal, how do you sell that to the Chinese public after months of anti US histeria?