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hcrof

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Everything posted by hcrof

  1. Infantry are hard to see, very hard to kill in a trench, and don't burn gallons of diesel every hour. Having said that I am sure we will eventually see drones replacing infantry too.
  2. I would love to know how they failed to hit a slow moving aircraft like a rivet joint. I'm sure the Russians would like to know too!
  3. Excellent article as always from RUSI: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/stormbreak-fighting-through-russian-defences-ukraines-2023-offensive Gives a detailed after action report and recommendations for how to improve western training efforts for Ukraine.
  4. Those tires are also gonna be flammable - just dump a Molotov cocktail on them and the plane will go up like a torch!
  5. Must be scary for those guys! Was it confirmed that a boat was destroyed or was that just russian make-believe?
  6. Perhaps that plane was doing a CAP with no air to ground weapons when it got re-tasked at short notice? Certainly not very competent...
  7. I don't want to be "that guy" but given the dispersion of the cannon rounds I can see maybe the boat took a hole or 2 but it is unlikely to have sunk outright? How many rounds does a su-30 carry? Could there be more shots unrecorded?
  8. Thanks, Ukrainian villages all have the same names and it is very confusing when people expect you to know which of the 5 identically named places they are talking about!
  9. Stupid question, but which Urozhaine are we talking about? Near tokmak?
  10. All modelling is a simplification of reality, but physical testing cannot necessarily be done for every conceivable scenario. In reality a combination is used, along with standards etc. Depending on how critical the scenario is there will be an emphasis on one or the other. Protecting a stadium from a hypothetical bomb threat will be done with modelling, standards and safety factors. Protecting a warship from known torpedo threats would include the above as well as physical testing. But no-one is going to torpedo their brand new warship for real to check if it works as intended! Edit: here is a full ship shock trial. Note how they are not actually blowing up the ship directly - they are mostly checking all the fragile stuff like pumps and electronics can withstand a big bang https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-57547885 That is really expensive so is rare and not often done for smaller ships afaik. As well as this, computer modelling would be used for other scenarios, including direct hits.
  11. It is possible to model a blast with a decent degree of accuracy, and this is done a lot when for example designing things you expect to get attacked, or to forensically determine what happened at a blast site. An example of some software that does it is viper, but there are others and they are all validated by physical testing. https://www.viper.as/ The key, as you mention, is to get your inputs right and we just don't have the information to make an accurate assessment!
  12. I think we agree with each other, but a few points: - the defensive scheme was designed before storm shadow (yes they should have anticipated it but Russia acts very short term at the moment). - himars at extreme range is different to himars at easy range or even extended range tube artillery. They may have assessed that the current lines are bad but 10km further back is significantly worse. - the Russian forces at Kherson were VDV, but now the line is largely mobiks so I am not sure you can directly compare how well they may withdraw. I think the force density is lower too, so less room for error. - or just politics, I am just looking for a militarily rational explanation here!
  13. Based on that analysis, I wonder if the Russians felt that if that gave an inch their entire backfield would be in himars range. In addition, falling back takes a level of competence not present in a sufficient percentage of their units. By that logic the best thing to do is to dig a lot of trenches to discourage attacks at your most vulnerable spots while putting all your mines in triple density on the front line and holding it with everything you have. The idea being that Ukraine gives up before they find out you have been bluffing and that your subsequent lines of defence are just a bare trench with no further defense such as mines, bunkers or field telephones.
  14. The UA seems to have figured something out yesterday - let's hope it continues!
  15. I don't think there is any difference between what you and he said. Russia is buying time with blood. They hope Ukraine will run out of ammo before they run out of bodies. I hope they are wrong...
  16. I may be wrong but I think the word "undermined" should have read "underestimated". Noone here is defending Russia, but this forum does tend towards Russia sux lol sometimes. We can find buckets of videos of zek lemmings getting barbequed but Russia has a big army and there are pockets of competence (see the RUSI report). We should be mindful of that.
  17. I can see drones in an effective mine clearing role actually: First send a bunch of drones with ground penetrating radar to fly low and map the minefield. They don't need direct control so are resistant to EW. They return and download the map to a bunch of bomber drones which drop a grenade on each mine, again at very low altitude. The grenades are linked to a trigger so don't go off immediately. The breaching vehicles form up and the grenades blow the whole minefield at once, or at least a wide path through it. Breaching vehicles immediately drive through with mine rollers to catch anything the drones missed.
  18. All true, but without the dam you have lost the main road that went across it. So any river crossing will be limited to waterborne logistics where all the infrastructure to manage that has been washed away. Still possible but not as dangerous for Russia.
  19. Painful to watch, but hopefully an mrap will mean the passengers and crew are all ok. I would certainly rather be riding in a maxpro than a BMP over a potential minefield!
  20. I imagine that UAV and ugv attacks over multiple nights could allow your own troops to rest while exhausting the enemy. If you automate it and combine with (drone spotted) shelling/AGL fire then life would become living hell for the troops in trenches
  21. I visited Kiev in 2015 and it felt little different to other low cost Eastern/central European cities at the time. Maybe like Prague when it was still popular for stag parties. Low cost flight there, attractive streets for a weekend of tourism, great outdoor Museum of culture, friendly people and good food and drink for very low prices. When they win this war, there will be a surge in tourism and assuming they get favourable trade deals with the EU the development will follow. Personally I would imagine Ukraine to turn out like Romania or Poland after a surge of recovery growth - quick start then consistent 5-7% every year to bring it closer to the EU average. No need for immigration or condos at the beginning, they already have educated people and decent infrastructure so use that better while attracting foreign money who wants the cheap labour. Then move up the economic chain while attracting immigration from Russia etc.
  22. I wonder if you you make a short ranged projector for a heavy shaped charge that descends at a steep angle onto a target such as a bunker. The weight of a law but with a bigger bang. You could also add some sophisticated accuracy aids to ensure a hit with what is essentially a one-shot mortar. A big shaped charge landing from above would easily take out a bunker, armoured vehicle or troops in cover and wouldn't need to be super heavy if you accepted a range of 200-300m or so.
  23. It makes Putin look so weak and the turbopatriots are already frothing at the mouth as a result. I think the 2 guys were just shielded by the cupola and it was a hand grenade level of explosives. Just a demonstration by Ukraine/pro Ukrainians
  24. Putin has to be on red square for the victory parade in a week. Ukraine is saying "we could get you if we want to". Putin is so paranoid he will be sweating bullets right now.
  25. In my mind a smaller, lighter tank is cheaper. Not just in metal but also in logistics, transport etc.
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