poesel
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Posts posted by poesel
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1 hour ago, Lethaface said:
Imo all the low number Leo2 variants getting pulled from (dusty) storages around europe now, should be round up in Germany (or wherever the required work can be done) is and converted to 2A6 before being send to Ukraine.
IIRC the conversion from A4/5 to A6 is quite extensive and time consuming. I'd rather take them as is. The A4 is more than good enough for this war and you'll never get back the lost time.
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5 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:
With reference to Russian industrial capacity....
In my experience, it takes 6-12 months before major supply chain disruptions really start affecting the economy.
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Russia may be getting to the end of that window before industrial production really starts taking hits.
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Not wanting to disagree, but there is one factor in favor of the Russians here. Russian businessmen expect less stable supply lines (even in peace time) than their western counterparts. So they usually have a much greater stock of stuff than in western just-in-time networks.
Russian companies will last longer in supply chain disruptions than western ones. This may be a factor why we don't see a breakdown, yet. -
1 hour ago, Khalerick said:
Not to pull a Godwin's Law, but I can strong,
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I think I need to inform you that this forum is exempt from Godwins Law.
If mentioning that the Nazis did or did not something would immediately and an argument here, this forum would be full of millions of very, very short threads...
So, please go ahead.
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Does Ukraine still let POWs call their relatives?
I always thought that this is a very, very good way to bring the war 'home'.Apart from that, I guess it is difficult to get through to the ordinary Russians. Those who wanted to know, know already. Those who have fallen for the propaganda are unreachable.
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26 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
"The only Leopards that will really be ready with trained crews at the end of March are the Bundeswehr [German Armed Forces] tanks," one expert told Der Spiegel.
From the full article is the information that Poland will deliver the promised tanks, but no spare parts and no training. If that is true and was their intent from the beginning - wow, that would be really cheap.
59 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:Yeah, it's occurred to me more than once that the sight of a Leopard 2 painted like that would be enough to give a Bundeswehr public affairs officer, or more to the point a German politician, a serious case of acid reflux...
We are very used to the lenient use of Nazi symbols in other countries (cough...UK..cough). But I guess there will be a silent agreement between Ukraine and Germany to not let that happen.
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Strange nobody posted this:
She knew it 40 years ago!
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3 hours ago, Yskonyn said:
NRC news (dutch) reports about (further)integration of dutch army elements into german army.
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IIRC the Netherlands and Germany were the first countries after WWII to abolish border controls, which led to Schengen in the end. Let's hope this leads to a European army.
Btw, none of this made the mainstream news here. Hmmm....
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Btw, no comments on this?
I remember some other leader being scolded here for saying the same thing in more words. Or did Biden just misunderstand the question?
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3 hours ago, Butschi said:
Nasty truth: NATO doesn't need Ukraine and EU doesn't need Ukraine as a member. If a stable peace can somehow be ensured, that can be sold to the various electorates, the West will be ok with it.
'doesn't need' in the sense of 'will cease to exist if not' - yes.
But it would be better if Ukraine joined NATO and EU (for different reasons and with some preconditions in both cases). -
4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Playing CM armchair general here, it seems like the Azov guys went in too boldly. Perhaps not following the plan? Not sure about that, but it did sound like they decided to drive in at top speed and take the positions by storm instead of making sure their flanks were secure. They had some idea of what was around them, but not enough. And enough time went by that the Wagner forces were able to bring up reinforcements.
I blame this on the briefing texts. These are often misleading. A common occurrence.
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6 hours ago, dan/california said:
I really wonder how this plays in Germany. Could it be good timing for Scholz? In that Ukraine will simply do whatever he wants done as a thank you for the Leopards?
Didn't make the news here, yet. Even if it would, nobody would care about two numbnuts who fought for Russia - unless they would get a death penalty. We are picky about that.
6 hours ago, dan/california said:Yeah this is the next fight, and not just with Germany. Hopefully at least some people have hopefully learned that saying yes very quietly is the best way to respond.
I'm with Jons on this. Also, there will never be an official ok from Germany. No way.
1 hour ago, Hacketäuer said:How is this a win? He traded germanys reputation as an ally for (maybe) some inner-party peace.
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There is this other half of Germany that is against sending tanks. I still haven't met one, but they exist. It was done this way for their sake.
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28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
My main beef with him this whole time wasn't mentioned by you, which was that he failed to come up with a consistent policy through this whole ordeal.
That's what I meant with 'not explaining himself'
28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:He could have probably gotten the same end result on the tanks without people deciding his name should be turned into a verb to represent indecisiveness.
Regarding tanks being sent and how he is viewed from the outside - yes.
But a definitive 'no' from the inner politics view. He could not have decided this faster - that would have created a local **** storm.It is the most non-threatening way to send tanks - for both the German AND the Russian POV for very different reasons.
But no praise from me - as I said, we will never know if that was an act of a genius or dumb luck.
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I feel a bit neglected: now that we deliver the tanks, nobody is interested in Germany anymore!
FYI, this is the aftermath of the 'Panzerdeal' here in Germany.
Very unsurprisingly, all the pro-tank parties (Greens, FDP, half of SPD, CDU) are happy while the anti-tank parties are not (Left, AfD, other half of SPD). Of course, there's some grumbling from the opposition (and from some in the coalition, too) that that was too slow.
But the main point of criticism from nearly everyone was, that the chancellor failed to explain his reasoning while he was doing it.Judging Scholz just by the results, most pundits (and I) have to grudgingly admit, that he did quite well.
From an inner politic view, he was not too early and didn't rush it. He was also not too late, to create enough turmoil in the coalition for any lasting damage. Thus, he has appeased the reluctant half of the population, while also (finally) pleasing those who wanted to have sent tanks long ago.
In the foreign politics field, he managed to create a broad coalition of nations who will send heavy tanks. Not only in Europe, but the US, too. Getting the US to commit Abrams is a success - no one knows who will be next in the Oval Office.OTOH he did aggravate a lot of people, especially in the EEC. Weighing this with the effects inside Germany, that is still a win for him. So he put the German interests before foreign ones - that kind of behavior is quite common for many nations, but not from Germany (in the past).
I guess this will be some kind of 'new normal' that others have to get used to.So from a German perspective, Scholz couldn't have done it better (that is a strange sentence). Everyone is a bit upset, but the issue has been resolved.
However, since he didn't explain himself (see above), we don't know if this is the intended outcome or just luck. And I guess we never will... -
3 minutes ago, rocketman said:
Autoplay on an iPad with Safari browser.
Also autoplay with Firefox on Mac
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
And while we are at it as far as I can tell we have not sent the UA anything like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XM395_Precision_Guided_Mortar_Munition
In the text, it is said they decided on GPS over laser designation. The reason being that the enemy often hid behind ridges and such.
I wonder if nowadays it would be possible to put a laser on a drone (for pointing). A drone always has the height advantage. You would need good gimbals, camera & good control. Not an easy task, but seems doable. Even if it wouldn't enhance precision, it would shorten the targeting loop.
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27 minutes ago, Butschi said:
I haven't seen this confirmed though. I would have expected a high level announcement on TV if a decision was made. Nothing in "heute". Maybe later...
If SPIEGEL reports it, it is generally trustworthy. They usually have good and reliable sources and are not prone to spit out information just to be first.
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41 minutes ago, kevinkin said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/22/vladimir-putin-ukraine-west-russia-president
More endgame yuck:
Even if Ukraine chases every last Russian soldier from its land, Russia’s aggression will not end.
If Russia has been driven off Crimea, Mariupol, Donetsk & Luhansk - do you really think that the current Russian regime (including successor clones) would survive it? If that above had happened, anyone somehow connected to this war would be burned - politically or literally - at the stake.
Should Ukraine manage to achieve one or two of the above goals, the war is over. Russia has surprised with its stubbornness, but even that must have a limit.
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3 hours ago, Huba said:
She could've said that no country will be blocked, not PL specifically - a small ambiguity but quite important.
There was no specific mention of Poland. I'm sorry if it came over that way.
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8 hours ago, fireship4 said:
This has been posted twice above, but I want to highlight it again - this seems like significant good news? Or is it one wing of the government representing one party's position which may then be overruled by Scholz?
Yes & yes, but unlikely
Scholz overruling such an explicit statement of a coalition minister would be a serious blow and could very well end this government.
Usually, I'm not so fond of political moves. But here she kills two birds with a stone: Scholz and Poland. It's a jab at Scholz and forces the Poles to show their hand. Nice one. -
Since this thread is now 'How hot is Germany gonna get?' - well, it seems to get interesting in the ruling coalition. This is still the second rank fighting, but that usually does not happen (in the public). I guess next week, the higher ups will have to clear this up. Or not.
FYI: Scholz as chancellor can overrule every minister, but that is politically difficult for ministers of the other parties. Defense is SPD (Scholz), Foreign & Economy Green, Finance FDP (both not Scholz).https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Panzer-Debatte-treibt-einen-Keil-in-die-Ampel-article23861492.html
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1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:
Careful what you wish for. Schmidt wasn't exactly a friend of Ukraine.
Good catch, you are right. But I'm not sure if he had changed his mind or not - having fought in WWII and such. Still, I miss his scathing commentary. That is some sharpness that has been lost in current politicians.
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5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Pistorius laid out a heavy heaping of BS excuse as part of the cover story for the compromise. He said the reason Germany couldn't make a decision right now is because they need to inventory what they have and figure out what the state of everything is.
That can be explained quite easily: he distances himself from his predecessor by pointing (indirectly) out that she did nothing. A political move and it buys some time.
There is that meeting between Macron and Scholz on Sunday to celebrate 60 years of the Élysée contract. There is some speculation about an announcement coming then. Personally, I don't hold my breath, though.
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4 hours ago, Lethaface said:
Maybe after this endeavor the average german will be more compelled to vote for visionary, decisive leadership. That has not been the case for quite a while imo.
Yes, but no. Current polls put the CDU (Merkels party) ahead. The one that did more or less nothing the last 16 years.
Oh boy, do I wish Helmut Schmidt or Wehner or even Strauss would still be alive. That would be FUN - unfortunately, the explanation why is too long and too off-topic here.4 hours ago, Lethaface said:He's also quite visibly uncomfortable on most of the images/video's that get posted of him during interviews/talks. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't sit out his term, although I don't know how usual that is in Germany.
Scholz is the 9th chancellor. Three of his predecessors didn't run their full term (Erhard, Brand & Schmidt). Last time this happened was in 1982. But it is highly unlikely that Scholz would stumble over this tank thing.
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Just now, Maciej Zwolinski said:
I know, I am describing a counterfactual. Let's assume Scholz agrees to send tanks. Do other coalition members leave the coalition because of that? No, they will be happy. Therefore: is Scholz's coalition the problem? No. Therefore: Scholz is the problem, or his own party SPD is the problem. Do you see my reasoning now?
Yes, I do, and I agree. But that was not my argument. I was answering to the question 'why is there no coherent policy or message' from Scholz. Answer: because he is in a coalition which is divided on the subject. If the SPD was ruling alone, the message would have been clearly: 'we will never send tanks (or weapons at all in first place)'
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
I guess Ukraine will become full member as soon as Russia wants the sanctions lifted. The cessation of all hostilities will be a non-negotiable requirement. That in turn will allow NATO membership.