sburke

Some analysis of the state of Russian opposition (almost none anymore) those who oppose have either been silenced, fled Russia or decided it is just easier to go along. Interestingly unlike popular support for invading Crimea, current support is much more apathetic Now, while the government has tried to popularize the letter “Z” as an endorsement of the war, Mr. Shalygin said it’s rare to see a car sporting it; the symbol is mainly popping up on public transit and government-sponsored billboards. The “Z” first appeared painted on Russian military vehicles taking part in the Ukraine invasion. “Enthusiasm — I don’t see it,” said Sergei Belanovsky, a prominent Russian sociologist. “What I rather see is apathy.” Indeed, while the Levada poll found 81 percent of Russians supporting the war, it also found that 35 percent of Russians said they paid “practically no attention” to it — indicating that a significant number reflexively backed the war without having much interest in it. The Kremlin appears keen to keep it that way, continuing to insist that the conflict must be called a “special military operation” rather than a “war” or an “invasion.” Russian media on the other hand has gone bonkers. On Friday, the program schedule for the Kremlin-controlled Channel 1 listed 15 hours of news-related content, compared with five hours on the Friday before the invasion. Last month, the channel launched a new program called “Antifake” dedicated to debunking Western “disinformation,” featuring a host best known for a show about funny animal videos Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin’s Invasion (msn.com)

so yeah this is pure speculation, but what do folks with knowledge of this type of movement think of the units trying to pull back into Belarus in terms of their ability to even join the fight around Izium? This isn't like CM where I just try and herd my vehicles (freakin hard enough) down another road. My assumption is as these units pull into Belarus they would need to: Reorganize as formations are likely a mess Resupply and sort out units for casualties etc probably have to reorganize leadership due to losses of officers and then finally get them loaded onto trains to route around to Belgorod before they can then detrain, reorganize and be sent back into Ukraine How much time would this likely take before these units could conceivably even join the fight again?

If American draft resisters flee to Canada, where do Russian draft resisters go? Hundreds in Russia Seek Legal Help to Avoid Ukraine War—Lawyer (msn.com)

So much for April 1st deadline. It really is Fool's day. Maybe rename to Putin Day? Russia says it won't cut off gas yet in rouble row (msn.com)

NYT article. their assessment A first contingent of soldiers has already arrived in Russia for military training before heading to Ukraine, according to a Western diplomat and a Damascus-based ally of the Syrian government. It includes at least 300 soldiers from a Syrian army division that has worked closely with Russian officers who went to Syria to support Mr. al-Assad during the war. Syrian Mercenaries Deploy to Russia en Route to Ukrainian Battlefields (msn.com)

Not sure if this is behind a paywall. Article is about Belarusians fighting in Ukraine Many of them have joined the “Kastus Kalinouski Battalion,” named after the leader of Belarus’s insurrection against Russia in the 1860s. It is made up of Belarusians taking advantage of Ukraine’s wartime decision to allow foreigners to serve in the ranks of its armed forces, though not as officers. A dozen recruits interviewed by The Washington Post described their sense of common cause between Ukraine and Belarus’s pro-democracy movements. Belarus batallion fights in Ukraine for 'both countries' freedom' - The Washington Post

More than likely you are correct. it warmed (see what I did there) my heart to think that it might be fuel for the Izium offensive. I think you and Steve are more on target. this is sort of Ukraine's version of the Doolittle raid.

Got it, this is the other guy they mentioned Lt Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. We also have this guy Colonel? Denis Shishov, the commander of the 11th Air Assault Brigade Pretty dangerous to be a Lt Col in Russian army

Russian dogs run away - Ukrainian dogs wait in ambush?

Didn't @The_Captsay something right after that ship was hit about UKR hitting Russia's SLOC? Seems they figured it was time to really ruin Putin's day by hitting the fuel and maybe the ammo marked for the Plan F drive. Wait till those poor sods pulling out from around Kiev find out their fuel is getting hit before they can even get back to Belarus. Isn't it April 1st in Ukraine now?

Putin: "Damn I have to fire another General?!" What are the odds it was a Russian aircraft that thought it was firing at Ukraine? We can't rule out incompetence,

Don't know how accurate this is but could make for a new Shield of Kiev campaign Ukraine’s Best Tank Brigade Has Won The Battle For Chernihiv (msn.com)

interesting article on the impact on women's roles from the war Russian-Ukrainian War rewrites old attitudes toward female fighters - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

or is he just happy to see....

Russia drafts 134,500 conscripts but says they won't go to Ukraine (msn.com) Just the ones who "voluntarily" sign up to do so.

The sales pitch?

I admit to being kind of amused at these "Russia will do this and declare a ceasefire..." You can't declare a unilateral ceasefire unless you are really in a dominant military position. You can ask for one, but the other side has a say. Ukraine will have a set of conditions for the ceasefire which they have already started establishing. The key one being Russia recognizing the territorial integrity of Ukraine. I don't think they will insist on Crimea beyond an internationally managed referendum there. It will however mean the end of DPR/LNR. I don't see Putin agreeing to that. So the war will go on until Russia is simply unable to maintain their forces in the field either because of a military collapse or a political "transition" back in Moscow and a unilateral withdrawal. The cracks are appearing for Putin. Incidents of soldiers refusing to serve in Ukraine . Too much of the army is being committed to this with potential risk of instability elsewhere. Too many of the various power blocs now have a reason to consider a Russia without Putin. The cost of the war which so far he has managed to hide will become apparent. The butchers bill will come due. Putin is in a situation where everyday things get a little worse and he is not in a position of controlling the narrative.

Regarding Syrians. i'd be surprised if Russia understood within days of the invasion they needed more troops. I expect it is more likely that was Wagner or Russian units out of Syria. Russia's performance so far doesn't impress me enough to think they would react that quickly. I expect Russia was in utter shock at how badly the war was going that first week, but not fully comprehending. Regarding the above. I read that earlier today. I frankly don't understand his argument unless he has some deluded perception that Russia is going to retain the whole Black Sea coast which thought is completely undermined by the preceding paragraphs. I think the reality is Putin really is the loser we think he is. He way overplayed his hand for whatever reason.

What was said was the Russian figure of 16,000 was BS and that was coming from the US intelligence community. This article is a lot of speculation with little actual concrete detail. They cited one plane, but to move 16,000 you would need quite a few more. I don't doubt there are some folks going, but if there were even half that 16,000 the Ukrainians would have identified at least some. Could be, but I haven't seen anything to indicate they are showing up and I'd be curious to see how they are integrating them. Language barriers will be a pain until they are dead,

Hey I resemble that remark

Question to anyone who might know - The Belgorod ammo dump - I assume that is the main supply hub for the Kharkov axis and by default the main logistical point for the offensive towards Izium?

I am not so sure Russia isn't scraping the barrel. The human resources they are using seem to indicate that. A regimental commander of 4th MRD committing suicide over state of their reserve equipment, the condition of the equipment they launched the invasion with, reports on the state of their ammo they are resorting to using and then a very conveniently timed explosion at the Belgorod dump indicates that materially Russia isn't doing so well either. However I don't think the big issue right now is military. Given the state of military affairs for Russia I suspect the big issue now is political. This whole thing has been an utter disaster on so many fronts.

got it. also we should start including @Kinophileas his sheet is really interesting to see the organizational impact and possibly project what additional damage these casualties may reflect. Mine is just a list. Beginning to feel like Arya with her hit list except mine keeps growing and it is mostly dead people. copying @Haiduk

With the West as unified as it is I don't see China doing anything. You don't launch an attack when your foes are fully alerted and ramped up. In addition I think China has its own issues to look out for. Financially things are unstable. and China does have vulnerability in that it is heavily dependent on critical resources from overseas. In addition, they are being hit hard with Covid with Shanghai going through an extremely disruptive phased lockdown. China’s Economy Is Slowing, a Worrying Sign for the World - The New York Times (nytimes.com) then there is the issue of coal - this was from October China power supply crunch: Relationship with Australia, GDP outlook (cnbc.com)

seems to be a lot of this going on. Dismantling of Russia's foreign intelligence network? The Netherlands is expelling 17 Russian diplomats who were "secretly active" as intelligence officers, the Dutch foreign ministry said on Tuesday. (msn.com) 4 European Countries Expel Russian Diplomats—With Some Citing National Security Threats (forbes.com)