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akd

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Posts posted by akd

  1. 44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    What is more interesting is the units we know about belong to all three of the armed organizations within Russia:

    1. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
    2. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
    3. GRU Spetsnaz (MoD)
    4. Unit of nuclear forces (MoD)
    5. Border Guards (FSB)
    6. Border Guards (FSB)
    7. Border Guards (FSB)
    8. Rosgvardia (National Guard)
    9. Rosgvardia (National Guard)

    Might have missed it due to formatting and his exclusion of complete unit title, but he also included the 1st Separate Tank Brigade, 20th Guards CAA, WMD (в/ч 63453) in his list.

  2. 18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    I have found Galeev to be a very bad predictor of what is to come.  He often correctly identifies things to watch and what the variables may be, but then he... I dunno... jumps to something that isn't supported by what he just outlined.

    You do NOT rehearse a coup because the regime will lock down as many of the identified problems as possible.  Which means the second time around will need to be significantly different than the first time, which negates the concept of "rehearsal".

    You may wish to test some theories, but you'd do it on a small scale.  Like testing the police response time to a particular bank you wish to rob.  Call in a bomb threat or something, watch what happens, then plan accordingly.  What you do not do is burst into the bank, take it over, have the vault open, then walk away without taking anything.

    In fact, the Russian Liberation activities gave any Moscow plotters all the information they needed about Russia's ability to handle internal security.  No need to stick their necks out for redundant knowledge.

    At best Galeev is probably correct that there will be another grab for power if there isn't a hidden winner as I think there is.  However, whatever power grab might happen in the future, it likely won't look anything like this because there will be no Wagner or equivalent because it effectively doesn't exist any more and NOBODY will be stupid enough another PMC to be formed.  In fact, I expect we'll see many burgeoning PMCs, like GAZPROM, seriously curtailed in the very near future.

    Steve

    I do not think Galeev means literal rehearsal here.

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