dan/california

No one is claiming the U.S. is run better than Finland, no really we do NOT make that claim. It is just that this rambling wreck of a system has produced the worlds most powerful military, and I simply don't care what budget shenanigans the President has to pull finish beating the Russians in Ukraine. Doubly so when Putin is actively manipulating and funding the worst people in our system.

I think Biden is making it clear to the nutcases at the outermost ends of the political spectrum that he will torture the accounting as necessary if they bleep around on the next supplemental appropriation for Ukraine.

Retired NOAA guy, his maps have maps. A lot of detail worth thinking about. There are even maps of where the roads were before the dam, Which might matter. Many, many maps.

The standard Russian 125mm HE shell must just really be hard get in the right spot relative to a trench from a ~300 meters range. I mean there have been some pretty spectacular case of Ukrainians expending an entire ammo load and then driving the tank over the trench because there are still live Russians in it. I will be very curious to see what happens the first time we get tape of Western tanks shooting at a trench. How much difference will it make that the Western tanks are taller, and there gun depress at least somewhat further. Edit: I am just assuming we haven't done something smart like send the newer ammo that can explode at a programmed distance. That stuff looks like it would clear tranches wholesale. Especially the sort of sad ones the Russians tend to dig.

Pushing just hard enough to provoke the Russians into suicidal counter attacks seems like the ideal strategy actually.

I am honestly not sure if this is real combat footage, or an add for Ford trucks. Although I guess both is always an option...

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1671095803589324803 Bleeping twitter, anyway pic of bone dry ground in drained Khahovka reservoir.

it doesn't help that they have a mishmash of virtually every piece of equipment produced in the last fifty years by both NATO AND the Warsaw pact.

thought better of it

I am developing a deep interest in the soil conditions in that reservoir, no reason, just curious.

Given the overall level of ISR and intelligence collection on the Ukrainian side I find it extremely unlikely that the Russians managed to pull together enough forces to do anything serious undetected. And Russians are a lot easier to kill attacking than they are when the burying into their holes like some sort of particularly unpleasant mole, so my bar for worrying about this is pretty high.

They seem to be asking most of the right questions, I am less convinced about their answers.

I honestly quite figure out what is goin on here, but every explanation I can come up with leads to the same conclusion. The Orban problems needs to go from something unpleasant we ignore, to something that gets fixed.

And after the Ukrainian example no one will ever give up nukes again. U.S./NATO just didn't give that enough weight early.

This doesn't indicate learning so much as it indicates that the Russians were forced to commit some of their very highest value assets to the fight. I am fairly certain that at least some of those high value assets were in the multistory buildings the Ukrainians rigged to detonate as they retreated. Now facing longe serving Wagner professionals was bleeping unpleasant for the Ukrainian defenders, but attriting those very Wagner units and similarly valuable VDV units was the entire point of the Ukrainian strategy. Those units are now far less able to act as a final operational level reserve for the Russian defenders in the South

It is entirely possible the SF guys clearing that trench were not in a forgiving mood...

Priceless stuff Grigb. What I want to know is what was in the trench that was worth risking a SOF team for? Or at least what they thought was in it? A SOF team seems like too high value an asset to risk just to eliminate some random mobiks. It would be great if they have got another western missile working on the airplanes the Ukrainians have. Every time they get a new western munition it seems to move the needle at least a little.

This may be Perun's master piece.

So we may be looking at a month of knowing virtually nothing. At least if the war bloggers go quiet the Russian MOD will have even less idea what is happening. Ukraine may blow a hole clean through the Russian line somewhere before word gets to Moscow by official channels that things have gone from bad to worse. I firmly believe that some one in the Russian system finds the reality check the war bloggers provide useful. Otherwise they would all have fallen out of very high windows months ago. The AFU has clearly decided that the propaganda that matters is Leopards and HIMARS lined up on the AZOV coast, and that they can just take the info war hit in the meantime.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1670313415418564609 Twitter having a fit, but claims Ukraine hit a bunch of other Russian other ammo depots. Ukraine is trying to induce a full shell famine. Hopefully it will go well with the cholera outbreak.

Appropriate for the day, I think.

If they are going to irritate the Russian's this much they might as well start selling the Ukrainians everything. I mean there is a LONG list of Israeli stuff the Ukrainians would like to have, starting with a quarter of the rather large stockpile of Spike missiles held by various European countries. Assuming this isn't vaporware do we have any idea of the actual plan? Are the Merkavas going straight to Ukraine? Or is Poland going to take the Merkavas and send Ukraine some vast percentage of what they have in inventory. The Poles do have a whole new army on order after all.

All the evidence n this war is if the missile gets a lock, the helicopter dies. The things that matter are at what range and elevation can an F-16 spot the helicopter vs what range and elevation Russian missiles, whether SAMs or air launched can range the F-16. If F-16s with AMRAAM can engage without to much risk of missiles coming back the other way the helicopters would just stop flying. If they can't it wouldn't move the needle much. The relevant information is probably classified. And of course it is influenced by the model of F-16 in question, and the EW being employed by both sides. Edit: and the model of the AAMRAM. Pfarrer's brand is wild eyed optimism, if he had been mostly correct about the course of the war we would be discussing the Ukrainian siege of Sebastopol this morning.

Assuming the red lines are the Russian entrenchments, their choices seem a bit disjointed.

The harder question is can NATO ship Ukraine enough water purification systems and medical supplies to keep the problem Russian only. Also a vast potential for civilian suffering, especially in the Russian held areas. All that said, Karma has entered the chat, bleeping itself to death is almost as bad as what the Russian army deserves. Double points for the Russians themselves causing the problem.