dan/california
-
Posts
7,116 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
20
Posts posted by dan/california
-
-
23 minutes ago, chrisl said:
We really haven't seen much in the way of standoff EFPs dropped-from/carried-on drones yet, have we? A former USAF tech development guy I know thinks the CBU-97/BLU-108 is the greatest thing since sliced bread for dealing with armor.
The Javelin packs something similar into a missile transport, but the rocket equation makes it kind of big to haul around. Drones give up the Javelin's speed for range, stealth, and smaller mass and could become an even bigger AT nightmare with sensor fuzed EFPs (either as FPV suicide drones or as EFP taxis with multiple warheads).
I think there is vast potential or a fixed wing suicide drone just big enough to carry the efp from that program, perhaps with some the type of modifications. The_Capt discussed a page or three ago. Better computer modeling improves almost everything after all. It just flies over the vehicle five or ten or twenty five meters up, and fires an EFP that penetrate anything except the front armor of an Abrams straight down.
The Germans given have given Ukraine an artillery shell that deploys more or less the same tech by parachute. A drone just seems like a far better, far cheaper way to deliver it in most cases.
Edit: Cross posted with Carolus.
-
9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I really don’t see that stopping an FPV with an RPG round strapped to it coming in at 80kph. And it definitely won’t do a damned thing against this little monster:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914714000348
This prompts my semi-regular reminder that for all that drones dominate the battlefield, we haven't seen anything yet.
-
Quote
Gallioti goes over the theater attack as well as it can be done. Short version, ISIS-K did it, and the rest of it is various bits of the Russian state either trying to cover their a$$es or take whatever advantage they can
-
11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
And some detal of these Tajiks detaining - Russian special police serviceman (but with Black Sun chevron by some reason) or whoever it was cut the ear of this guy and forced him to chew it. After this the video was shared in TG. Russians like bloody shows
Warning, grafic content!
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1771545767250956576
I wonder, how much ears now Tajik migrants teens will cut from Russian teens in own showdowns.
And of course, Kadyrov already made a statement his troopers also assisted in detaining of terrorists and will be awarded.
I wonder if the Tajik in question had anything to do with the attack? Or was just in jail for something random, and drew a very short straw? I have the strongest possible feeling that the Russians are making this up as they go along, and making any investigation into what actually happened impossible in the process. In a decade or so maybe we will at least find out what was the U.S. intercepts that prompted the warnings
-
Quote
Apparent Ukrainian strikes against multiple targets in Crimea, plus Belgorod. The actual war is not taking a pause because of the unpleasantness in Moscow.
-
Quote
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-ukraine-moscow-concert-hall-terrorist-attack-russia/
Putin links Ukraine to Moscow massacre without evidence
At least the press is doing an above average job of explaining what is going on.
-
10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Most serious incident before this took place in training center, where Tajiks shot out Slavic servicemen, which humilitated them. Usually only insults, bulling and browls between Russians and Middle-Asians. Though many of Middle-Asians are indigent low-educated Muslims and can be easily enlisted by many of Muslim terrorist organisations for not so big money. In the same way like they enlist to Russian army.
Whatever the Russian regime knew, whenever they knew it, and whatever they had to do with it, this is the same regime that managed to turn a three day coup attempt into the biggest mess since AT LEAST the Iran/Iraq war. What ever happened it is being responded to by the same incompetents who made the rest of this fiasco. Just because blame it on Ukraine is what their vodka soaked, cocaine damaged, brains came up with doe NOT mean what they are doing now makes any sense. We are trying MUCH to hard to make it make sense. And that is true regardless of who actually did the attack on the theater.
-
26 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
The above is why the drones need to be designed to kill as creatively and painfully as possible (and to record the killing on social media ofc). Designer death, as it were, lovingly customized for a single soldier.
Join the Imperial horde, you get to loot and rape to your hearts content is one thing. Join up to become a chew toy for a truly nasty robot does have the the same ring.
-
Quote
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-22-2024
Russian authorities reportedly intend to significantly expand crypto-mobilization efforts starting in Spring 2024 amid reports about significant decreases in the number of voluntary recruits. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 22 that high-ranking sources from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), presidential administration, and regional governments stated that the Russian MoD plans to increase force generation starting in the spring and that Russia may intend to generate an additional 300,000 personnel within an unspecified time frame.[30] Verstka’s sources reportedly stated that the Russian military will first focus on recruiting reservists who have signed contracts with the MoD to join the “personnel mobilization reserve” that undergoes military training twice a year. An officer from an unspecified military unit in Trans-Baikal Krai reportedly told Verstka that Russian authorities are currently recruiting such reservists in ways similar to those used before partial mobilization in 2022, but that it is unclear if Russian authorities will order another mobilization wave. Verstka reported that presidential administration sources stated that Russian authorities aim to persuade and even coerce conscripts whose service term will end in April 2024 or has already ended in 2023 to sign military contracts. Verstka reported that sources indicated that military registration and enlistment offices started to issue more deferment certificates to employees of state enterprises and some defense enterprises at the end of February but that the reason for this phenomenon is unclear. Verstka reported that sources differed on whether recent activity in the Moscow Mayor’s office, including the resumption of work by employees who had previously helped military registration and enlistment offices during the fall 2022 mobilization wave and the creation of a new center for conscripts, is related to the upcoming biannual spring conscription cycle or something else.
Verstka reported that employees of the military recruitment center in Moscow indicated that the pace of Russian voluntary recruitment “dropped sharply” starting in October 2023 with the number of visitors to the Unified Contract Hiring Center in Moscow decreasing from 500-600 per day to 20-30 per day.[31] Russian forces’ ability to replenish their significant losses in recent months has been crucial for their ability to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine, particularly offensive operations near Avdiivka that began in October 2023.[32] Should Russian authorities be unable to recruit the quantity of personnel needed to replenish losses and maintain the current tempo of offensive operations in Ukraine through intensified volunteer recruitment efforts, Russian authorities would likely intensify other crypto-mobilization methods, such as the coercive mobilization of convicts and migrants, to sustain offensive operations before deciding to do so by conducting another unpopular wave of mobilization.
A Russian Storm-Z instructor noted that Russian authorities must consider the conflicting interests of the Russian military command, various groups of military personnel in Ukraine, and Russian society when deciding whether to conduct another wave of mobilization or not. The instructor claimed that Russian authorities have resorted to recruiting volunteer military personnel since they are concerned that another mobilization wave would likely spark social tension in Russia and lead to another mass exodus from the country. The instructor claimed that volunteers’ recruitment prospects in the post-election period are “ambiguous” and that another mobilization wave would be “fairly logical” to fill both the active army and the strategic reserves. The instructor highlighted, however, that Russian authorities must consider various problematic factors when deciding whether to call for another mobilization. The instructor stated that if Russian authorities were to conduct another mobilization without demobilizing those already called up in Fall 2022, there would be tension between the newly mobilized and previously mobilized personnel; if Russian authorities conduct a larger-scale mobilization than the one in the fall of 2022 and replace those previously mobilized, there would be tension with volunteer recruits who have open-ended contracts; and if Russian authorities do not conduct another mobilization wave, there would be increased tension among the military personnel who have been on the front for a long time. The instructor claimed that Russian authorities can avoid a possible mobilization if Russian forces systematically improve their reconnaissance-fire complexes (RFC) and reconnaissance-strike complex (RSC) in coordination with offensive actions. The instructor also suggested that Russian “meat assaults” are aggravating Russian forces’ personnel problems and complained that Russian authorities praise "meat assault” commanders who “amuse” Russian authorities with “beautiful” but untrue frontline reports.
Really good ISW today, but the most interesting part is quoted above. It quotes several sources about Russian recruiting issues, and highlights several issues that might occur if Russia conducts another mobilization.
-
27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Timing could very well be based on the age old adage of "kicking a man when he's down". Think about it. If you're part of a group that's got a long standing beef with the Kremlin, and you've seen it totally preoccupied? Wouldn't you start to think "hmmm... maybe we should start planning something?". Then seeing Priggy having free run of the country thinking "maybe we should do something bigger?".
For all of its strengths at controlling the masses, Russia's internal security services have not made an impression on me as being particularly adept at combating well organized activities. I could be wrong, but that's been my impression.
So my bet is timing is based on perceived opportunity to cause mayhem.
Steve
The Russian security forces are massively distracted crushing the last of Nalvany's movement, and ensuring no one raise in his place as the face of the Russian opposition. The guys who attacked the theater were probably at more risk of being randomly shanghaied into the Russian army than they were of actually get caught.
-
I can't get it to copy and paste to save my life but Medvedev just did a Telegram post that seemed to imply the Russians are going to blame it the Ukrainians regardless of what happened, and then go full Reichstag Fire with it. Of course it is Friday night in Moscow, and Medvedev may simply have already been to drunk/high to check what the party line actually is supposed to be.
-
Quote
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/22/congress/gallagher-leaving-early-00148586
Johnson's margin drops to one vote as Gallagher heads for early exit
Allies of the Wisconsin Republican say he was long jaded by the antics of the House following the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
It is not Mike Johnsons week. It remains to be seen if Gallagher wants to take a parting shot on the way out. There are scenarios where one vote could matter, a lot.
Edit: The sheer volume of news today is overwhelming. I hope nobody that matters in DC had weekend plans...
-
27 minutes ago, Grigb said:
The primary issue now is that, according to rumours, the attackers do not resemble Ukrainians but rather Chechens. Ru Nats are currently confused.
FSB is perfectly capable of arranging corpses for the final presentation that are not the people who did the attack. They would just have the propaganda machine say any video to the contrary was fake. The "investigation" will have about as much integrity as the "election" that was just concluded. Which is to say both were dictated in advance.
-
39 minutes ago, billbindc said:
How do we know Jake Sullivan has anything to do with this discussion? This could just as easily have been a Pentagon analysis or any of 20 other agencies involved. I have my issues with Sullivan but generally speaking, the idea that everything is an out growth of Sullivan's foreign policy outlook or chops is just not on. This is a large, complex effort not the sandbox of the NSC adviser.
I would agree with that, mostly. But I have read several things I don't have time to go looking right now for about his approach to Ukraine in spring 2022 that set a trajectory I think we have been on ever since. Then there was his little faux pax in the Atlantic a week before Hamas kicked off that mess.
-
Quote
House Dems could have Johnson's back on ouster threat — if Ukraine aid gets a vote
-
2 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
This seems to imply she is still at the nastygram stage, although obviously she is just nuts and might change her mind before I finish typing this.
Edit: Nothing counts at this point until there is a vote scheduled, anything she does that doesn't put the vote on the calendar is just posturing.
-
Quote
Greene, who supported Johnson's October election as speaker, is one of several members on his right flank who have publicly soured on his leadership in recent weeks. She had hinted earlier Friday that she was considering a maneuver to force the ouster vote. Johnson may or may not have to take it up, since it's not yet clear whether Greene filed it as a "privileged" resolution that requires House floor time.
This is the critical bit. There is a way that she can do this that is just a high profile nastygram, and there is way she can doit that forces a vote on Johnson next week. It isn't quite clear which way she intends to go.
And Trump hasn't said anything that I can find. And I honestly don't know which way he will jump on this. He may want absolutely maximum chaos, or may realize that making the Republicans look COMPLETELY feckless is not good for him.
-
Quote
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/us/politics/congress-spending-bill-government-shutdown.html
Ms. Greene told reporters on the House steps minute after the vote that she would not seek an immediate vote to oust Mr. Johnson, but had begun the process as a “warning” because his actions were a “betrayal.”
Or may this is just MTG being theatrical. Given how bleeped up everything in the house is Johnson isn't going to make a deal on Ukraine until five minute before the vote on his ouster, we don't quite seem to be there yet. Subject to change without notice obviously. Trump hasn't weighed in that I am aware of at this exact moment.
-
9 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
More American political drama:
Well, this will get the cards on the table, at least.
Edit: I wonder if Trump asked her to do this? or if she is freelancing because she is mad that he hasn't already made her his VP pick?
-
44 minutes ago, billbindc said:
I would strongly suggest anyone who thinks this level of push/pull between the US and Ukrainian liaisons is excessively disfunctional should go back look at what it was like in the Allied high commands in WWI and WWII. Alliances are hard. Hard questions have to be asked and long term possibilities must be hashed out. Making the sausage always looks ugly and in war triply so. It's a sign of Ukrainian strength, not weakness, that the US clearly *isn't* calling the shots and a sign of US trust in the Ukrainian government that it isn't trying harder to do so.
It isn't that I think our relationship with the Ukrainians is excessively dysfunctional given the circumstances. It is that I think Jake Sullivan has had the wrong strategic conception from the beginning. That isn't to say he it isn't seven orders of magnitude (edit: better) than it would be with Trump, but it is still a problem.
And this situation much more like our relationship with Great Britain before Pearl Harbor, instead of after it. That time we came all the way in, eventually.
Quotehttps://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/C40ak_PqmrX
Germany and 
France have reached a "breakthrough" on how to develop a planned next-generation tank known as the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) and split up tasks between the two nations, - Reuters
️"This is more than a milestone, it is a historic moment", - Boris Pistorius
If this is correct the French and Germans have agreed just agreed to waste a lot of money on class of systems that is well on its way to being obsolete. Although it sounds like this at the agreeing to have a design committee meeting stage.
-
7 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
On a more serious note, one of the few things which could explain this refusal to surrender which sometimes borders on madness is the belief that Russia will eventually win and all prisoners will be repatriated like von Pannwitz' Cossacks and will meet a similar fate to the repatriated von Pannwitz Cossacks.
That, or those particular soldiers who refuse to surrender are guilty of attrocities and are afraid of Ukrainian revenge more than anything.
It isn't clear to me that most of the current crop of Mobiks has the opportunity to commit warcrimes at anything like the rate of the early part of the war. I suggest this simply because as the lines have gone static the Russians have just not had the opportunity to go full Waffen SS on new batches of civilians. I am not saying they wouldn't if they could, but if you are stuck in a trench with barrier troops behind you, Ukrainian guns in front of you, and nothing but the Somme 2.0 around you there is just a lot less scope for certain things
-
20 minutes ago, billbindc said:
The idea that American analysts shouldn't be doing stringent cost/benefit analyses of whether the temporary effects of drone strikes on Russian refineries might be less important than avoiding a price spike that delivers Trump to the WH and Putin an outright victory is absurd.
In addition, we should not assume much about this revelation since we have absolutely no idea of what the context of the conversations were. And of course, by the time anyone reports that aspect of the story attention will have moved on.
What I don't understand is why the they think the refinery strikes are pushing up crude prices. I thought that Russia was putting more crude on the world market as it lost refinery capacity. This brings me back to my question about Russian infrastructure capacity for importing refined products?
I also think it is a classic example of the Biden administration trying to exert a level of control over the glide path of this war that just doesn't exist. If they want the Ukrainians to settle for the current lines as a long term armistice they need to say so. If they don't, they need to let them fight.
-
1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
"Oh BTR of the lake, tell me your wisdom: how to get the hell out of here?"
I don't think he liked the answer...
He would try to surrender if he had any sense. Better to be the butt of a Ukrainian joke than the butt of a Russian rifle, which I am pretty sure he is going to get if the platoon/company commander catches up with him.
-
1 hour ago, hcrof said:
What about one of these:
It certainly won't stop a bullet (bullets are really good at penetrating stuff!) but will support enough soil to do so and is super quick to install.
But it would remain a niche use case since wood is cheaper and less flammable...
It is sort of a sign that the standard colors are yellow and blue. Certainly it would be excellent for the walls and roof of a position with some sandbags/dirt over the top. Whether it makes any sense cost wise is a another question. I am guessing the troops would appreciate the inherent water proofing though.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by dan/california
If the guys they are parading around with missing bits, broken bones, and worse are in fact the guys that did it? Then my only question what were they thinking letting themselves be taken alive? The scary thought is that the guys they are more or less publicly torturing to death are four random guys they grabbed off the streets who had the misfortune o resemble the guys in the video. That would be uhm...BAD.
That said the treatment these guys are getting in Russian detention is no different than what they have done to tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of of thousands of others in both Ukraine and Russia. They are just posting video of it in real time. That of course is the reason why Russia is going to get to pay a thousand casualties for every square kilometer of Ukraine they even temporarily occupy. Because the Russians have demonstrated beyond clearly that giving up is just not an option.
Edited: for clarity