dan/california
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Posts posted by dan/california
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7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
"Mysterious Russian soul"
Russian wounded soldier just cuts his throat with a knife with several attempts.
Drunken Russian soldier shot own comrade in blindage. I can't understand what was a reason of conflict. Man with rifle says something, then asks
- Shoot you, f...k? What do you laugh? Shoot you?
- Oh, bitch, fu..k you
*a shot and scream*
It gets back to the quality of the recruitment pool, or rather the lack there of. It isn't like the Russians are doing even a fifth of what a NATO military considers adequate training either.
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4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
The second TOS-1A for two days was cooked off by FPVs of "Azov" brigade on Terny/Kreminna direction. Most of media attention now is on Avdiivka, but Terny like and Ivanivske near Bakhmut are real hot points now with not less amount of Russian atatcks and the same fierce fight.
I keep wondering what you have to do wrong to get assigned to drive one of these. I also find it hilarious that they make them drive around by themselves. "It will all be fine, we promise", also" don't get closer than one kilometer to any friendly unit".
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The Dormant Breadbasket of the Asia-Pacific /The promise of Siberian agriculture for Asia’s growing demand for food.
I am not deeply familiar with The Diplomat, but this article seems well researched. They conclude that Siberia has significant untapped agricultural potential now, and that it could increase greatly with climate change.
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8 minutes ago, sburke said:Quote
There are approximately ten million people in the eastern third of Russia. The population of China, shrinking though it may be, is well over a billion. I don't think that is is a sustainable situation in the long term.
Of course Russia has moved the long term even closer by preferentially mobilizing men from this part of Russia. The_Capt mentioned however many months ago that the level of pressure would depend on if and how much Global warming increased the areas agricultural potential. I need to go find the current best guess on that question.
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13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I wonder how many combat sorties a Russian tanker can achieve before getting blown up? I've not read any speculation lately about training and combat experience of the average Russian tanker.
Steve
Given that every attempt at a real attack seems to take thirty or forty percent casualties, if not more, the obvious answer would be about three. But that is probably to low, because they use tanks for things besides armored banzai charges. The casualty rate for low commitment shoot and scoot missions is probably quite a bit lower. Still, even if my numbers are off by quite bit the odds living to spend the money they may or may not actually be paying you seem rather low.
At a minimum it seems worse than either the Eighth Air Force B-17 crew, or the German U-boat fleet, and both of those were horrible.
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1 minute ago, billbindc said:
This actually is a good sign. The White House has something the GOP wants and Johnson seems willing to trade for it. As the US is already cranking out record amounts of fossil fuels, it's also unlikely to change much in the real world.
100% agree, and we actually need to export more gas to keep Europe supplied. And the more we export the less the Russians can charge, regardless of who they arfe selling to. The ban was a bad idea to start with, or brilliant way to get a bit of negotiating leverage the administration will be just as happy to give back.
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16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Because nobody posted this yesterday, here is aftermath of Russians armored assault attempts in different places for March 30th - April 1st
Siversk direction. National Guard battalion "Donbas" of 18th operative brigade eliminated enemy platoon
Usual day of 47th mech brigade, Berdychi area NW of Avdiivka - usual destroyed Russian armor and dead Ivans
25th airborne brigade repels the same most mass armored assault of Russian BTG of 6th tank regiment of 90th tank division in Tonen'ke area, SW from Avdiivka. I suppose we can see soon more epic video.
Destroyed Russian armored column, which tried to advance further into Ivanivske (Russians still name it in old manner Krasnoye), west of Bakhmut
Two things about the last video stand out to me. It looked like all the Russian vehicles were getting hit from the same side, and none of them had their turrets turned towards the threat. Am I looking at this right, or are the cuts in the video confusing me? If they are all getting hit from the same side before they can even turn their turrets? That implies either epically bad radio/SOP for the Russians, or whatever blitzed them had a very high rate of fire. Is it possible that the column got flanked by a couple of Ukrainian tanks, and these were main gun hits? Were they seen coming so far in advance that at least three ATGM systems were set up for the perfect ambush? I have looked at a truly excessive amount of video of Russian stuff blowing up, and this looked different to me.
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“Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of artificial intelligence. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data. The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision,” the source explained.
In other words, the Liutyi drone is able to adjust its flight direction in real-time by comparing the objects it sees with a map stored in the computer. In the same way, the drone finds and hits the required object on the plant’s territory.
This sounds more like the pre GPS cruise missile guidance systems than true AI. Although there could be another layer to the software obviously. Either way it is fantastic they can't be diverted by GPS jamming.
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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:
Related question on what Iran can and can't help the Russians with, do they make their own artillery barrels? Do they have a meaningful number in stock? Like wise the North Koreans, they have sent quite a bit of ammunition, have they sent any barrels or complete guns? Could they?
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7 minutes ago, hcrof said:
I'm not sure actually, I don't think production of those things requires much sophisticated equipment so I imagine production could begin again fairly soon (6 weeks?) unfortunately. But as a cheap demonstration it is still a valuable strike.
Every week matters at this point, when it is a race between Russian Shaheed production, and Ukrainian SAM procurement.
31 minutes ago, akd said:Dear eurofriends, do you perhaps have a recreational light aircraft you aren’t currently using on hand?
Related question, how much light aircraft traffic is there in Russia normally? How big of an inconvenience would it impose on the Russian regime and economy if they had to ban all non-military light aircraft, just to simplify the threat picture?
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Other possible topics to argue about...Quote- https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-1-2024
- A joint investigation by 60 Minutes, the Insider, and Der Spiegel strongly suggests that the Kremlin has waged a sustained kinetic campaign directly targeting US government personnel both in the United States and internationally for a decade, with the likely objective of physically incapacitating US government personnel.
- The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is intensifying efforts to falsely implicate Ukraine in the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack while denying any Islamic State (IS) responsibility or involvement in the attack.
- Russian authorities are taking measures to further crack down against migrant communities in Russia following the Crocus City Hall attack.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on April 1.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to reassure the Russian public that Russian military conscripts will not deploy to most of occupied Ukraine nor participate in combat operations in Ukraine amid the start of the spring semi-annual military conscription call-up that started on April 1.
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33 minutes ago, Offshoot said:
Looking at the news cycle, Havana syndrome is having another moment in the limelight. Maybe it is like flesh-eating disease - case numbers remain relatively stable year on year but every now and then the media picks up on it, starts feeding on itself and then mass reports it like it is a new thing come to get us all.
As it happens, a scientific report (not clear if it has been peer-reviewed and officially published yet) and a literature review have just been released too (March 2024) if anyone is interested.
I can tell you from painful personal experience that you can be bleeping near crippled from long COVID while every test they can think to run comes back negative. On some level Havana Syndrome is same kind of the same thing.
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56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I've never known what to make of it either. Something is definitely going on, but so far nobody has been able to explain what it is. The report that just came out was inconclusive as well. My guess is that it's Russia (the pattern of attacks lean towards a large state actor) and it's a neurotoxin. Russia has plenty of those and so it's more plausible than a wonder weapon. But why is there no trace of the toxin even though it is being looked for? I have no idea.
What I am pretty sure about is that US intel services have a good idea what is going on in terms of who is doing what. Keeping quiet is the best way to get more exact information. This is a spy game after all, so tipping one's own hand isn't generally the right move.
Steve
!00% agree on this. My guess based on zero non public information is that it a a very volatile compound that dissipates into the air quickly. With the Russians actively killing people all over Europe, like the pilot in Spain who defected, it is at least possible that someone will eventually get caught who knows something.
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2 minutes ago, riptides said:
So sad that person is an elected official.
Even worse....that that sort of drivel can be spouted and not a thing can be done about it.
Truth!
Edit: The extremely good news is that it sounds like she knows she has lost, finally. Keep your fingers crossed, and write your Congressperson AGAIN!
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Their might a vote on Ukraine funding tomorrow. This is the day to write your Congressperson if you are in the U.S..
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
So, basically, a fast moving drone with an autonomous targeting system. Obviously this is theoretically possible to do, and Ukraine has done so much with drones already, but it would be quite risky.
What I could see happening is recognizing flight patterns for military aircraft and then putting the killer drones into the general area with prohibitions on striking anything outside of compatible parameters (altitude, airspeed, etc.). It wouldn't be that hard to do something like that and have it work pretty reliably.
For example, send the drones to Russia's restricted air spaces and target anything within it. To be extra safe, restrict the altitude to below something like 10,000 feet or, if attacking aircraft landing/taking off crank it down to 1000 ft. That sort of stuff.
Now, whether the rumors you are talking about are true or not... this is coming.
Steve
What Ukraine SHOULD do is simply declare all of Russian airspacfe within a thousand kilometers of the Ukrainian border a war zone, and say if it moves, it dies. I will point out there is not a single civilian plane moving over Ukraine, to the best of my knowledge, why should Russia be any different?
44 minutes ago, chrisl said:You might get away with advance laying AT mines a few times, but eventually they'd start running smaller vehicles (service locomotives, or even trucks with train wheels) pushing a sacrificial train car or two (maybe with a very low plow, too) ahead of the trains. It would certainly slow things down, but not necessarily bring it to a halt.
But drones that drop AT mines just a short way in front of the moving train? You'd take advantage of the extemely long stopping distance and make it a lot harder to sweep the tracks. And maybe easier than hitting the moving locomotive.
Locomotives ought to be the single easiest thing to train an autonomous drone to hit. They are big, they run in fixed tracks, they have enormous, and hard to disguise signatures in infrared, and on five other types of detector. This strikes me as a great application for an EFP that fires straight down, from a drone flying horizontally. That copper lance straight through the boiler, or a diesel would be day ruining. Kind shocked both sides haven't had this going already.
Ukraine should start hitting locomotive repair facilities, too. Although I would keep shooting at oil refineries until there weren't any left as the single highest priority target for simpler drones. That is where a few ~20kg charges get the single biggest bang for the buck.
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4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
One ray of light, and this is *strictly* barroom RUMINT, FWIW: I won't talk specifics here (and I don't know that much anyway), but it seems all air transport throughout European Russia at below mach speed will shortly become extremely unsafe. And even supersonic jets need to take off and land....
As rumoured, the necessary system is already in Uke hands, but they're trying hard to find a way not to have it splash RU civilian airliners by mistake. That wouldn't be a great look, given MH17. And you can absolutely expect the Russians to dangle airliners full of foreigners, especially Turks or Middle Easterners, in harms way.
...At a guess, when foreign carriers (looking at you, Turkish Airlines and Emirates) begin canceling routes to Russia with scant explanation, that will be proof that this is not just BS.
Now THAT is a rumor! And hopefully a true one.
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39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Dmitri is getting kind of whiny at this point though, not a great sign....
Two years in everybody is tired, and showing it one way or another.
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Read Dmitri every day!
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Russian journalist who covered Navalny’s trial is arrested for extremism
Moscow court charged Antonina Favorskaya with participating in the activities of late Kremlin critic Aleksei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation.
Putin is now cracking down so hard it is illegal, and dangerous, to report that there is a crackdown underway.
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We have been trolled successfully...
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Russians accidently dropped 11 gliding bombs on own territory within a week, including heavy FAB-1500. Reportedly no one exploded. It's unknown what caused theese droppings - technical failures or, how it assumes lower screeb of miliatry TG channel, UKR may highlight bombers with radars, so pilots, warned about they are can be potential victim of SAM, just frorced to drop the bombs and make intensive evasive maneuvers to avoid potential threat.
They have shot down enough planes lately to make the radar warning receiver lighting up an extremely credible threat. When they stop responding to the radar, push a high grade SAM forward.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by dan/california
Per Baneman.....
Russian staff school forgot to mention this was supposed to be a joke. I do think Black Adder's prescription for the morale problem is dead on though, in the Russian context.