dan/california
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Posts posted by dan/california
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Not sure if this was posted earlier or not. The details of the navies procurement fiascoes is certainly interesting in a train wreck kind of way. The really interesting bit though is that he spends the live five minutes of the video more or less begging for future procurement decisions to be tested in good and competitive simulations before you spend several tens of billions of dollars.
So can we have a modern game now? Pretty please? Land warfare or the Taiwan straight, I'm flexible.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
This video clearly demonstrates the futility of trying to hide once it's clear they know where you are. Because wherever you go to hide, they'll know that's where you are. In the case of this video, these guys put themselves into a perfect place to die. They stood a much better chance of surviving if they kept moving. At least up to a point, because you can't keep moving forever. The presumption that you can is the underlying flaw of maneuver warfare.
Steve
The presumption of doing much of anything is that they don't have enough drones to kill us all. It usually seems to be a bad assumption. And since pretty much every tech trend seems to makes drones better faster than it makes drone defense better, this thing is going nowhere very fast. If one side could actually break that paradigm they could probably win a major operational level victory in a week, but the only thing I see evidence for is better drones, and artillery being directed by better drones, and mines being delivered by better drones, and mines that ARE better drones. Until there is actual proof to the contrary...
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
“mass precision beats everything”.
Oh there is no question about that. It is exactly what that mass consists of that is in question. To put it another way, how close to the FEBA can a dog sized robot survive, how close can soldier survive, how close can a manned vehicle survive, and so on. Because the answer has a a lot to to with what that mass needs to consists of.
Then there is the little problem that the answers to these questions might be changing so fast nobody can afford to keep up.
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:
In uni, we used to call these guys the 'Sandalistas'
Stealing that!
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27 minutes ago, zinz said:
https://harpers.org/archive/2024/03/the-pentagons-silicon-valley-problem-andrew-cockburn/
I think many here also ride the Ai hipe train. Might be an interesting read @The_Capt
This article was not exactly convincing. It detailed Pentagon procurement disasters going back decades. All but dismissed the way drones have utterly dominated the war in Ukraine, and did not even mention the vast U.S./NATO ISR complex and deep strike systems that represent hugely successful Pentagon programs. It is just an anti war screed written by someone stuck in the worst of 1970s this is all a racket propaganda.
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia’s-only-strategy-success
Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion.[1] The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion.[2] Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.[3] If we lean in and surge, Russia loses.
Lead paragraph of a longer piece.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/world/europe/russia-moscow-attack-migrants.html
Worries Over Ethnic Tensions Have Kremlin Treading Carefully on Massacre
Anti-migrant rhetoric in the aftermath of the attacks at the concert venue outside Moscow has spurred fears that the tragedy could cause ethnic strife inside Russia.
We are flying blind without information about how this is being received in the Tajik community and broader Central Asian community. Twitter seems to hate me more by the day, has Kamil Galeev checked in on this? I seem to recall he is Tajik, albeit not exactly typical.
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15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Not only when larger organziation is at hand; you only need adress of his family. People in most Muslim countries/communities are living communally in very large gatherings, sometimes dozens of relatives, cousins, older ones etc.; it is their families that gives them strength, socialize them and matter most. There are exceptions, but this is a general weakness known to Russians for centuries.
Way of pacifying Chechens was exactly that; attack and heavily persecute larger family, clan, village. Even brave to the point of suicide Chechen fighters didn't have answer when your 10th relative in a month comes back with broken legs and all fingers cut off, begging to stop fighting. It's not like they have their individual rights like in the West. Collective punishment is considered very effective way of subduing unruly muslims in Moscow.
Now we already saw 11 persons arrested, including guy who lend car to assailants, owner of flat they lived in, probably their cousins, stepsisters and neighbours are already being intimidated- for now, mostly verbally. If Kremlin will keep it cool, limit itself to public tortures of assailants and not go into heavy persecutions of entire groups of people, I doubt this entire incident will have long-lasting or profound repercussions. I expect at some point also Kadyrovites to be heavily involved as "good" Russian Muslims, despite Ahmad himself being rather silent lately.
But in Beirut, and even Chechnya, the Russians only had one goal, to pacify their problems with the situation. They absolutely did not care about how much collateral damage they did, AT ALL. They have a different problem now with the economic dependence on Central Asian labor that their economy has developed. The war in Ukraine of course has made this dependence much worse. Probably the Russians usual brutalist approach can put the lid back on, but it is not a guarantee.
Smoking accidents in unfortunate places have already had a real effect on the Russian war effort in Ukraine, a whole new source of such problems could matter.
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Just trying to step back and understand the problem a little bit, Tajik language is very closely related to both Dari and Persian. These languages have been relevant to the Western intelligence community for a while now. That is probably why the U.S. seems to be at least as aware of what is happening in Russia as the FSB is. That said, what are the publicly available Tajik language sources we ought to at least be aware of? Are there Tajik Telegram accounts with some history being reality adjacent? How have those accounts responded to this whole thing so far? I mean press freedom in Tajikistan is not even a concept, so all that is going going to give you is the government line.
I keep coming back to big intelligence mistake at the beginning of the war in Ukraine. We had clearly penetrated the Russians communications more or less completely, but we believed the Russians own assessment of how the war was going to go. At least until the Russian army got stuck in around Kyiv, and then they and we, realized that what it was stuck into was meat grinder. I assume we still have pretty good insight into the Russian assessment of this whole thing, the private assessment, not the the propaganda BS, but do we understand how good that assessment is? It turned to matter quite a lot the last time the Russians got high on their own supply, are they about to repeat the mistake?
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Heh... well, someone on Twitter already posted exactly what I was thinking:
Yup. If the guy pictured in the theater really is the FSB agent in other videos, then the most plausible reason for him being there was either because they were trying to monitor this (and likely other) places based on US intelligence warning *OR* he was just there as part of routine autocratic security state duties. I mean, does anybody think the FSB doesn't have agents showing up at public events just in case they need to jot down some names of "traitors"?
As for the guy's alleged bad advice of locking the doors, it could be a) it wasn't a dumb idea generally, just not the right idea for this situation, b) he's not trained for this sort of thing and didn't make the right call, or c) there's other information being omitted that complicates/cancels the simplified portrayal of his actions.
It's not wrong to be skeptical of coincidences, but it is dumb to presume there's only one explanation for them. Context matters.
Steve
All details aside, the most important thing is that Putin is losing control of the narrative. That could matter.
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2 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
"Madiar is a homo"
Perhaps, but it is the Russians who are getting bleeped.
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4 minutes ago, Kraft said:
One of the russians seems to follow Madyar's content and noticed who was receiving the drone gifts.
A heartfelt message was written on the road on which he hunts
just a couple meters further, a burning rus truck can be seen
What does it say?
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https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-says-it-thwarted-islamic-state-plot-to-attack-moscow-synagogue/
Russia’s FSB security service said Thursday it had killed Islamic State militants who were planning a “terrorist attack” on a Moscow synagogue, Russian state news agencies reported.
The FSB said an ISIS cell based in Kaluga, southwest of Moscow, had been planning to shoot Jewish worshippers at a synagogue in the capital.
This happened a couple of weeks ago, about the time of the first U.S. warning, and barely made a ripple. Clearly the theater was the second shoe that got through. Who knows what else ISIS-K has planned? It isn't like they have a shortage of very unhappy muslims inside Russia to recruit from. Who knows if Russia can roll up this network in time? Are there seven more? It is the down side of running the country on badly abused Central Asian labor.
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19 minutes ago, Kraft said:
Almost happened last year, FPV targeted missile dumping chopper but missed helicopter by ~100 meters as it couldnt catch up with the speed.
Yeah I remember that vid. Looking out five years, drone with specific functionality to go after helicopters are going to make helicopters not a thing. All the pieces are out there, they just haven't been put in a nice package yet.
5 hours ago, FancyCat said:This set up for hunting tracking drone for instance should be able to flag low flying helicopters instantly. I see no reason that you couldn't scatter sensors to do the same basic thing well into the bad guys guys rear areas by either MLRS, or Baba Yaga type drones type drones. They would be passive sensors so they would not have emit a single peep until they heard one of the audio/vibration signatures they had been programmed for.
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https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/C48Z7UwoNWC
The Ukrainian FPV drone intercepts a Russian UAV in the Kherson region. I'm eagerly awaiting the moment when the FPV intercepts a Russian helicopter.
There is video in the link
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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:
Almost feel bad for those jihadists; simpletons don't even comprehend in what swamp of contradictory realities they packed themselves in with their terror message directed at Kremlin.
If the guys they are parading around with missing bits, broken bones, and worse are in fact the guys that did it? Then my only question what were they thinking letting themselves be taken alive? The scary thought is that the guys they are more or less publicly torturing to death are four random guys they grabbed off the streets who had the misfortune o resemble the guys in the video. That would be uhm...BAD.
That said the treatment these guys are getting in Russian detention is no different than what they have done to tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of of thousands of others in both Ukraine and Russia. They are just posting video of it in real time. That of course is the reason why Russia is going to get to pay a thousand casualties for every square kilometer of Ukraine they even temporarily occupy. Because the Russians have demonstrated beyond clearly that giving up is just not an option.
Edited: for clarity
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23 minutes ago, chrisl said:
We really haven't seen much in the way of standoff EFPs dropped-from/carried-on drones yet, have we? A former USAF tech development guy I know thinks the CBU-97/BLU-108 is the greatest thing since sliced bread for dealing with armor.
The Javelin packs something similar into a missile transport, but the rocket equation makes it kind of big to haul around. Drones give up the Javelin's speed for range, stealth, and smaller mass and could become an even bigger AT nightmare with sensor fuzed EFPs (either as FPV suicide drones or as EFP taxis with multiple warheads).
I think there is vast potential or a fixed wing suicide drone just big enough to carry the efp from that program, perhaps with some the type of modifications. The_Capt discussed a page or three ago. Better computer modeling improves almost everything after all. It just flies over the vehicle five or ten or twenty five meters up, and fires an EFP that penetrate anything except the front armor of an Abrams straight down.
The Germans given have given Ukraine an artillery shell that deploys more or less the same tech by parachute. A drone just seems like a far better, far cheaper way to deliver it in most cases.
Edit: Cross posted with Carolus.
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9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I really don’t see that stopping an FPV with an RPG round strapped to it coming in at 80kph. And it definitely won’t do a damned thing against this little monster:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914714000348
This prompts my semi-regular reminder that for all that drones dominate the battlefield, we haven't seen anything yet.
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Gallioti goes over the theater attack as well as it can be done. Short version, ISIS-K did it, and the rest of it is various bits of the Russian state either trying to cover their a$$es or take whatever advantage they can
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11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
And some detal of these Tajiks detaining - Russian special police serviceman (but with Black Sun chevron by some reason) or whoever it was cut the ear of this guy and forced him to chew it. After this the video was shared in TG. Russians like bloody shows
Warning, grafic content!
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1771545767250956576
I wonder, how much ears now Tajik migrants teens will cut from Russian teens in own showdowns.
And of course, Kadyrov already made a statement his troopers also assisted in detaining of terrorists and will be awarded.
I wonder if the Tajik in question had anything to do with the attack? Or was just in jail for something random, and drew a very short straw? I have the strongest possible feeling that the Russians are making this up as they go along, and making any investigation into what actually happened impossible in the process. In a decade or so maybe we will at least find out what was the U.S. intercepts that prompted the warnings
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Apparent Ukrainian strikes against multiple targets in Crimea, plus Belgorod. The actual war is not taking a pause because of the unpleasantness in Moscow.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-ukraine-moscow-concert-hall-terrorist-attack-russia/
Putin links Ukraine to Moscow massacre without evidence
At least the press is doing an above average job of explaining what is going on.
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10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Most serious incident before this took place in training center, where Tajiks shot out Slavic servicemen, which humilitated them. Usually only insults, bulling and browls between Russians and Middle-Asians. Though many of Middle-Asians are indigent low-educated Muslims and can be easily enlisted by many of Muslim terrorist organisations for not so big money. In the same way like they enlist to Russian army.
Whatever the Russian regime knew, whenever they knew it, and whatever they had to do with it, this is the same regime that managed to turn a three day coup attempt into the biggest mess since AT LEAST the Iran/Iraq war. What ever happened it is being responded to by the same incompetents who made the rest of this fiasco. Just because blame it on Ukraine is what their vodka soaked, cocaine damaged, brains came up with doe NOT mean what they are doing now makes any sense. We are trying MUCH to hard to make it make sense. And that is true regardless of who actually did the attack on the theater.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
https://www.amazon.com/Nuclear-War-Scenario-Annie-Jacobsen-ebook/dp/B0CBGWMFSN/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2YWUVD4QVTI8Z&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Zr6o1rRmHleDimx5fEmVk5oq7ffMqWdcBxCl2KHY4pcJoJVAwq_Xg80DkdJ8QH0WvGwk0FP63u0ywzp_1EZSZYdsfhntyypeXOfdsU2zH1wQumgX9uU6eKPCjKVoef_sXXyYeB75e4Pkk7xFWFJBnGgjbC762G4APfNHnM1W6YpyMaYJx-Cbht8rceQwWNZXGCBTlGd0oMfVEBC_EXz4TG8t4zacQAARPS8uT9bZeXQ.-VSBCq10hQYc9tAYO60dkV4kkN2Bm4wUK-LTQPFSo4s&dib_tag=se&keywords=annie+jacobsen&qid=1711660983&s=digital-text&sprefix=annie+%2Cdigital-text%2C142&sr=1-1
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lawfare-podcast/id498897343?i=1000650769923
The podcasts is with the author of the book, about the book. The book is about a somewhat contrived scenario that results in a full nuclear exchange. Which is...wait for it...bad!
The following is pure speculation, and I have no knowledge of the authors motivations beside what she gives in the podcast. Knowingly or otherwise I think this book, and a lot of similar "oh isn't it all horrible stuff" is part of a Russian propaganda campaign to scare the West into giving him Ukraine. What absolutely nobody who is pushing this line will answer though, is what do we do when Putin demands Poland and the Baltics while Xi launches an invasion of Taiwan? Because if shaking the magical nuclear stick works, why would they stop?