dan/california

We have entered a period of almost complete battlefield illumination, and denial. ALL of the field manuals are going to have to be rewritten to take this into account. Throw in the fact the leading edge, and 90% of the CSIR is going to consists of unmanned platforms, and we are just at the point of starting over on doctrine. That doctrine rewrite will extend from blue water naval operations down to how to secure a sewer system. Then we start on the hard part, getting procurement to actually change to reflect that new doctrine. It sounds like The_Capt is fairly close to retirement, the next person in his job is going to be rather busy.

It turns out you can do a decent smart mine with the standard FPV drone. Just fly them in at dusk, and make the roads impassable until dawn. If they aren't already doing it it will be trivial to make this autonomous. See bright light, rise one meter, and point that way. They so need a railway version.

I want a new modern game...

Not at all, but it the clearest possible example of the U.S. not being able to decide whether we are in this to win it, or not. Their is absolutely no reason except our own idiocy that DPICM shells were not supplied with the first 155mm guns. What I am trying to say is that we have had a strategy of extremely gradual ramping up in capability for the Ukrainians, and it gave the Russians to much time to get their bleep together. And now we are in a 1916-7 situation, where the lines have frozen, and the cost to move them is just too high. Edit: The fact we STILL have not given the Ukrainians the ability to drop the Kerch bridge is the second extremely obvious example.

Mercenaries go to the highest bidder. In terms of what they are advertising that is the Russians. They are at least pretending to offer crazy amounts of money by third world standards. How often they actually pay up is another question, but then that has been a problem in that business for 5000 years.

New Perun!

In an ever more absolute autocracy that is not necessarily the case. I am pretty certain the Russians are losing, and doing themselves damage they will never, ever recover from. That being said a more or less absolute autocracy can go on for an absurdly long time, even as it sets itself on fire. People were still taking Hitler's orders in March of 1945, Japan didn't quit until the alternative was national annihilation. We just have to pull our heads together and send enough help to keep Ukraine in this war for as long as it takes. You may take issue with the way Dmitri picks articles to translate, but I have never seen someone credibly claim one of his translations was wrong in any meaningful way. The hopes for ending the Ukraine war quickly hinged on two things. The first was Putin's regime being competent enough to realize it had miscalculated, declaring victory, and going home, in April or May of 2022. The ugly little war between Chine and Vietnam in ~1979 is the classic example. The second chance was when the Kharkiv front collapsed. If the Ukrainians had had enough support then maybe the could have have run the Russian army of the field. DPICM being the most obvious thing we didn't do and should have. I have a list.... It didn't happen, so now there is nothing for it but the long grind. The goal now is to get Ukrainian casualties down, and Russia's up to the point that the Russians quit first. It really is that simple.

I wonder if that is actually what happened, or if the Ukrainians think he is an effective officer and sre trying to convince the FSB/GRU to take him out for them.

That is a really interesting article. I wonder if the people who get the blame for this little hiccup will fall out of a window, or be seized by patriotic fever and "volunteer" for a storm Z battalion. It does point out that there seems to be a fair bit of underlying sentiment for peace under the frozen surface of Russian public opinion.

There is third choice, though not a better one, simply print the money. Of course you then have to win the war before full blown hyper inflation sets in. But one way or another Putin only has so much time to get this done. We just have To ensure Ukraine can outlast him.

Seems like a couple of PGMs would collapse the tunnel...

Except that there are a at least a dozen kinds of highly skilled specialist required to make that work like the hype says it should. In the absence of conscription Western militaries are going to have to PAY those people. Ukraine is getting by because entire tech firms and university engineering school student bodies signed up.

I watched that video a few weeks ago, and that is a pretty good summary. Given that several tens of percent of some high schools are taking one or the other, that is a huge reduction in the available recruiting pool. Whether or not he gets sent straight to a storm battalion will be an interesting test of how secure Putin feels. Obviously it would be both convenient, and a great improvement for the whole planet, if he got messily dead in a matter of weeks. On the other hand there are very few people I am aware of as capable of doing a Prigozhin mutiny 2.0.

I don't think this has been posted yet. Let Ukraine fight Russia with Russia's money is the obvious plan B if Congress can't get it together. There might be a small plus in that Ukraine might be able to somewhat rationalize their equipment if they are paying cash. If it comes through step one ought to be a truly massive order for the drones parts and EW components Ukraine can't set up to make itself. A cash order for a couple of million shells might get Rheinmetal and BAE to actually crank up shell production, too.

It is at least possible that two transport planes were coming into Belgorod at the same time, and Ukraine hit the wrong one. But it is absolutely certain that if the Russians are talking they are lying. I would need to see some epically strong proof that POWs were on the plane. Heck, I don't put it past the Russians to kill a bunch of people and claim they were on the plane. And there are the first shots of the wreckage with only two bodies...

And with that the guidance system for autonomous drones will be in mass production.

That thought has occurred to me as well.

Just out of curiosity does anyone know how far clear of the war zone all/most most airlines are steering? Ukraine may have been avoiding shooting at anything resembling a transport plane out of an abundance of caution. And then they got solid intel on a target to good to pass on...

He will sitting at the high table in Valhalla. Peace to his family.

I am very curious who knocks on your door if you order one of these inside China? And you are ever seen again?

Did it literally fly in the open hatch?