dan/california

To many people that matter are convinced that the world can be reset to the day before the Russian full scale invasion. The reluctance to admit that long term trajectories have changed permanently has still not been overcome. Defense spending is going to have to have higher for multiple decades, globalization is going to slowed, and perhaps reversed for decades. The secular cult of share holder value being the ONLY thing that matters is needs to be staked in the heart, permanently. Boeing being exhibit A on that one. Hopefully it won't take Ukraine falling, and Russia invading the Baltics to get the point across. Or maybe Trump wins and civilization takes a multi-century wrong turn into a dystopian nightmare.

Am I correct in thinking that there is an additional pinch point with regard to who is easier to mobilize? The big industrial/utility/oil enterprises are the easiest place to round up several hundred or several thousand people at a time, but also the most damaging economically?

You are clearly right about the overall strategy, but there is such a thing as cutting it to fine, and I would argue we have done that. This is especially true with regard to the narrative in the western media, allowing Russia to claim even trivial successes has been nearly disastrous for that. See todays NYT headlines. That is with 20/20 hindsight of course, but I have also held that position since May 2022 more or less. The adds on X/twitter are not much better at this point. Although I find it hilarious that every third one is for Starlink, without once, EVER, mentioning Ukraine. I suspect this is also Elon engaging in some sort of self dealing to move money from Space X to the rotting remnants of twitter.

Another huge UKR SOF success. Or the Ukrainians have a new drone that can carry AAMs. It seems clear the attacks on Russian AEW and airborne command and control systems are designed to give the F-16s more freedom to operate when they arrive. It might also really improve the success rate of UKR long range drone strikes.

one of two things happened. Either it got hit so hard the first time it was a write off, or it was in such a bad spot somebody was afraid they would lose the recovery vehicle. Things that can tow an Abrams are not in oversupply either.

It is the cancellation of the advanced scout helicopter that gives me the most hope/proof that someone is paying attention. Spending billions on that one was just nuts. Edit: And it was very significant ox to get gored in terms of the military industrial complex.

The unblinking eye will be with you shortly...

The system will always be a blend of humans and AI, the trick of course is getting the RIGHT blend. If the AI can make a decent first pass at the never ending avalanche of sensor data, and reduce the number of humans it takes to make it make sense from 5000 to 50 it is a rather big deal. Apologies for what is apparently the worlds longest hyperlink. This an old story, and about a system that is sort of the opposite of cheap and expendable. It does do a pretty good job of giving a feel for how it is possible to collect more data than you can possibly go through without some sort of massive AI assistance.

You could even spread them down th road to get an approximate speed for a big reading, and arrange to grace the appropriate spot with DPICM and FASCAM, if there was not a more artful solution handy.

It is of great consequence, and your expertise is appreciated. It is just that when you spend fifty hours a week beating your head against one set of requirements, it can be hard to shift gears. It is a long way from zero defect/zero mistake self driving cars to Avdiivka front good enough.

Is there a public link to that?

NYT bothered to report on Murz's demise. They must be feeling some pressure to balance the bad headline from yesterday.

Yeah the vast majority of ideologically motivated Russians/separatists have been expended in one way or another. Now the SMO is just a more effective grift, with a simpler propaganda hook. It is just a question of keeping Ukraine standing until this abomination of a regime eats its seed corn and just dissolves from the bottom up. Even if that means a hundred billion a year in support for another five years, it is the best money we could ever spend to make this planet a better place. But as you yourself have stated, self driving cars need an error rate that is approximately zero. For military drone AI an error rate of ten percent is probably more than acceptable in most circumstances. Your doctrine and planning have just have to reflect this. I mean we have hard evidence that a lot of Russian drones in full FPV mode with live overwatch from an ISR drone still hit decoys all the time. Bradley's and much else.... Does anybody else find Russia being dependent on Iran to be the kind of thing rattles your brain every time you think about it?

If he moves in the kind of ultranationalist/DPR circles I think he does, he has probably seen 75% of the people he knew two years ago die or get crippled for life in the "Special Military Operation". He wouldn't be the fist person to go around the bend in such circumstances. Especially as he is better placed than almost anyone to understand how unlikely Russia is gain anything that matters from this war, at least relative to the bill.

Palantir has entered the chat... Someone in the Pentagon needs to have at lest the beginnings of a plan if they suddenly become detectable. First rule of modern warfare, mistakes will be PUNISHED!

I have seen next to zero evidence of this anywhere else, did the NYT get played by a bad source?

New Perun, we can argue about this instead!

I think it is to soon say. We have seen virtually no system beside EW engineered for defeating drones. If you are placing bets right now you have to cover both bases. Because going all one way and being wrong is an excellent way to lose a war, badly. I would be pushing madly on some of the longer range artillery ideas that in various stages of development. I am sure they are not the only player. We have to pour money at this tech, drones, and counter drone technology. All of which will be horribly expensive. But losing always costs more.

Mike Johnson needs to watch this.

This is really funny!

You are sort of agreeing with me, and there is a reason I quote this Chinese joke/story about once a week.

Just one example among many.

Well that is true of virtually everything said on this forum isn't it? I am simply looking trying to encourage people who are A in Russia, and B suicidally brave to spend their lives and futures wisely. Three minutes of sign waving for what amounts to life in a Gulag just doesn't seem like a good bargain.

Iwas referring specifically to Avdiivka, and how it is just too risky to push western SAM systems forward there.