dan/california

Winner!

As Steve has previously mentioned, the Russians are losing a battle group per day, and depending on the how that damage is distributed that could be two or three battle groups combat ineffective. They can't do this very for long.

If you can keep making them pay a battle group for every little crossroads village it will work out just fine! We know what costs Ukraine to hold in a fight like this, writing Congressman multiple times per week to send more help. Glory to Ukraine! Napalm to the Russian Bas*&%$#^&!

Will be looking for more confirmation on this one. This would essentially almost decapitate the Russian forces in Kherson if true.

It will untenable to keep Ukrainian grain off the world market, period. Indeed getting Ukraines crop in this year is one the strongest reasons for NATO to get in now, today. The secondary casualties from hunger in the third world are going to surpass the casualties from the fighting.

You know there is an entire game in this modern artillery/drone/counter/counter /counter thing somewhere. Combat Mission, The Big Guns.

If the Russians can't even protect a convoy on a road that parallels a rail line in what looks pan flat farm field they just need to quit and go home.

Not so much advanced man pads, as drone optimized MANPADS. Drones are just a very different target than a SU-25

The most interesting thing about this video is how disjointed the Russian response is. You can debate what the BEST response is in a situation like this. Milling around in circles when the other side obviously has this spot dialed in is not it. There is an argument for going forward and hoping is isn't a full up ambush withs mines and ATGM, there is an argument for going backwards like you mean it. There is an argument for going sideways if it isn't complete swamp on both sides of the road, I can't really tell from the video. There is NO argument beeleping around trying to figure it out when you are obviously on the TRP. I hope they don't have much ammo is not a plan.

There are sort of three ways this "new" for Ukraine drone could be going. The first is just that someone is getting overpaid for redoing all the displays and manuals for the switch blade in Ukrainian. The second is that it a more robust communications link for the switchblade that resists Russian jamming or some such. The third is that they are optimizing the payload to do a job the U.S. would do with a different system. My first random thought is maybe either some sort anti radar seeker head that homes in on Russian air defense or higher level communication systems. My second random thought is that maybe an incendiary warhead for the switch blade was deemed very useful. Could a combination any or all of these of course

While railway sabotage would be more immediately useful, the Russian opposition to Putin seems to have figured out there are more useful ways to get tortured and sent to a gulag that waving a copy of Tolstoy around Red Square.

Allow me to reiterate one point, if those M777s have to have Polish lead NCOs, and Lithuanian battery commanders to get in the fight in time, those people will be found, shoved in UA uniforms and rehearsed on the fact they grew up near the relevant border. More likely they have been standing around waiting on the guns for weeks. In case folks haven't noticed the Poles and the Czechs, and the Baltic states are all in on this little party. Because they REALLY don't want round 2 in front of Warsaw. The Lithuanians can be part of the "Belarusian Legion".

opinions are my own Section one. The Ukrainians have lost a ton of vehicles, since they didn't lose most of the crews the generous donations from the RUSSIANS, the Poles, and the Czechs have done an excellent job of keeping them in the fight. Civilian vehicles seem to be working just fine for moving UA light infantry around. Unlike Russian leg infantry they don't instantly desert to Belarus if they get the keys to a civilian vehicle. At least the Ukrainians have vehicle repair centers to try and shoot at, which is a lot more than the Russians can say. Section 2 The Russians systematic destruction Of Ukraines fuel infrastructure is a big problem, but it affects the army the least, because they get priority obviously, Russian warcrimes have made ABSOLUTELY sure of that. The people the fuel situation is the biggest problem for are in the Middle East and Africa. every day the war goes on and Ukrainians get less farming done is less that they are going to have to eat. But for the war that just means that more farmers figure they might as well join the army since they can't get a crop in anyway. Section 3 Every real war in history blows through ammo at rates that stun the planners, Nato has just sent more. And no one on earth makes videos of their misses, ORYX's verified list is all you need to know about the hits. The U.S. just promised to send as much artillery as the Ukrainians started the war with, and if they have a the sense to include a bunch of guided rounds the training hassles will work themselves out. Towed guns are just not that complicated. Ukraines private warlord problem has been a tiny fraction of my prewar expectation, and most of those private warlords are competing for postwar status by killing Russians in job lots. Azov fighting a quarter of the Russian Army to a bloody standstill in Mariupol being exhibit A. I have no clue on wether or not switchblades are jammable, but it would be the VERY first thing the Russian EW types have done right this whole war. The cruise missile are problem but the Russians seem to be running out of them. Section 4 I am quite willing to believe that all the problems listed exist to some extent or another. But there is zero evidence to indicate that the Ukrainians can't field every soldier they can equip, and they seem to be able to equip about two or three times as many as the Russians have. Those beautiful Nato warehouses are coming through on that front, too. There is very little evidence the Ukrainians are pushing completely untrained people to the front. The war is eight weeks old, the new guys aren't going to have more training than that, it is a harsh business .Steve has described the reservists system in great detail, and it seems to have mostly worked. Summary Of course the Ukrainians have problems, there is a bloody war on. However the place is absolutely crawling with both reporters and every kind of western spook and ex, and dare I say, current soldier claiming they are the ex variety. Raise your hand if your can tell a Pole, From a Ukrainian, from a Lithuanian. My guess is the special forces from all three and several other countries all over Ukraine. if there were gamebreaking problems it would be all over the news

If I may be permitted the sin attempting to be hopeful in the midst of this nightmare, there is some small possibility that we could come out ahead on the climate at the end of this. The perils of being dependent on petro dictators are now so unavoidably obvious it might get the U.S./European nuclear power industry back in business. And nuclear in a big way is the only path to not cooking the planet.

The FSB manual states that the novachuk goes in the underwear. The polonium goes in the tea.

I would propose an alternative method of timing Ukraine' large scale offensive. It will be one day after better Nato supplied air defense systems simply wipe Russian airpower out of the equation. That is one day after those systems are actually active and shooting on the front lines in the Donbas, not when they get shipped over the Polish border.

Putin looks absolutely awful in today's video vs the older ones. He is slumped, he twitchy, and his voice is far less forceful. He very much looks like a guy with his health in decline. cross posted with Steve

Was he live at that stadium, or on some sort of piped in video?

I am the one writing bollox, very hopeful they are ACTUALLY making UAVs, or at least rebranding ones that actually work, and translating the control systems and manuals into Ukrainian.

Right year to be in that line of work....

I think we have to look at the entire war, as an epically bleeped up attempt to gain the upper hand in an INTERNAL Russian power struggle. If the three day immaculate victory had happened the faction that conceived and ordered the "special operation" would have gained enormously in what I am ever more convinced is the struggle to succeed Putin. Everything that has happened since is attempt at blame shifting, and positioning for said post Putin power struggle. And since NOTHING the Russians have done has worked, the factions have to keep trying to avoid being the unlucky party at the center of the upcoming circular firing squad that has definitively lost before this sub rosa civil war even gets started. Will the civi war stay sub rosa? Who knows??

Somebody is getting serious. That will reequip a substantial fraction of the Ukr artillery with 155 that can draw on Nato stores. Hopefully the will have the sense to include a bleep load of guided rounds/fuse kits. That would really let the Ukrainians step up the counter battery fight.

Did you mean the regime in Moscow?

This makes a great deal of sense to me. Once the war actually ends the Russian military/FSB are going to have spectacular circular firing squad, as everyone tries to blame everyone else for bleeping this up, and stealing so much the army was dysfunctional. A lot of the operations now may be more about different factions gaining an advantageous position for the post war internal grudge match. It is worth pointing out that Putin looks EXTREMELY unhealthy in the video of him and Shoigu that released in the last few hours. So the winning the post war blame game also positions your side for the post Putin power struggle. Since absolutely every organ of the Russian state has failed spectacularly in Ukraine so far I doubt they are ready to quit yet. Somebody needs some sort of actual success to hang their hat on. It is worth at least hoping that the incipient conflict within the Russian state apparatus will make their war "planning" even more dysfunctional. The question of what happens if Putin drops dead of natural causes in the next week deserves some thought. Does the succession struggle lead to an immediate Russian withdrawal, or a doubling down on the war to prove the war factions fitness to rule post Putin Russia?

I realize that the Russians don't have nearly enough men to cover their frontage. But how in the bleep can they have so little coverage and communications that the UKR can just casually assess what is and isn't worth taking, instead of burning all of it in a very large hurry?